HYDERABAD ELECTIONS

Triangular poll contest in AP

2009-03-19T02:22:00.000-07:00

By M H Ahssan

For the first time in 25 years, Andhra Pradesh is going to witness a close triangular contest in Lok Sabha and Assembly elections, scheduled to be held in two phases on April 16 and 23.

The formation of Praja Rajyam Party (PRP) by popular filmstar Chiranjeevi has changed the political scenario in the state where the Congress and the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) have been the main contenders for power for the past two-and-a-half decades.

Chiranjeevi is currently holding roadshows across the state and, if public response is any indication, he is likely to make heavy inroads into the vote bank of the two leading parties.

There is also a major shift in the electoral alliances with the Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS), Communist Party of India (CPI) and Communist Party of India -Marxist (CPM) now joining the TDP to form ‘Maha Kootami’ (Grand Alliance) to take on the Congress and the PRP, which are set to fight it out alone. In the 2004 elections, the TRS and the two Left parties had an alliance with the Congress.

Despite frantic efforts, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) could not forge an alliance with any party and it is also entering the electoral fray without any partners. However, for the first time, the saffron party has decided to contest for all the Assembly and Lok Sabha seats in the state.

Lok Satta Party, founded by former IAS officer Jayaprakash Narayan, is also entering the electoral fray in the state for the first time.

The TRS, which is fighting for separate statehood for Telangana, has distanced itself from the Congress when the latter dodged the Telangana issue for the past five years.

Nevertheless, like in the last elections, the demand for a separate Telangana state has emerged as a key issue with a potential to influence the outcome of the elections to be held next month.

The Telangana region spread over 10 of the 23 districts in the state accounts for 119 out of 294 Assembly seats and 17 out of the 42 Lok Sabha constituencies. It will go to polls in the first phase along with north coastal Andhra region, which has 37 Assembly and five Lok Sabha segments.

The second phase of elections would be held in Rayalaseema and south coastal Andhra, which together have 140 Assembly and 20 Lok Sabha constituencies.

The grand alliance headed by the TDP has an edge in the Telangana region due to the presence of TRS. This despite the fact that there had been a substantial erosion in the public support to the TRS over the past five years. The party received a major setback in the byelections held in Telangana last year following en masse resignation of TRS legislators.

Chiranjeevi, who hails from north coastal Andhra, is expected to do well in that belt. PRP’s position in the Telangana has also improved slightly with the merger of Nava Telangana Party, formed by former TDP minister T Devender Goud, with the party just a few days before the announcement of the election schedule

The faction-ridden Rayalaseema region, comprising four districts, has been a traditional stronghold of the Congress. Incidentally, all the three potential candidates for the chief ministership of the state, YS Rajasekhara Reddy of the Congress, N Chandrababu Naidu of the TDP and Chiranjeevi are going to contest from this region.

With keen contest on the cards both for Lok Sabha and Assembly , the main parties in the fray announced a slew of sops to woo the electorate.

The TDP, waging a do-or-die battle to regain power, promised to give television sets to all the poor families free of cost. The party’s draft manifesto also envisages a ‘cash transfer scheme’ (CTS ) under which money will be transferred directly to the accounts poor families. While the poorest of the poor will be given Rs 2,000 per month, the poor families will get Rs 1,500 and the middleclass Rs 1,000. The party also promised free power to farmers and households and free rice up to 25 kg a month to the below poverty line families.

Naidu, who subscribed to the concept of “no free lunches” during the 2004 elections, has now earned the sobriquet of “all free Babu.” The former poster boy of reforms feels that his promises can be fulfilled though the CTS alone, considering that there are 20 million white ration cardholders in the state, this is estimated to cost around Rs 36,000 crore per annum, while the state’s budget for 2009-10 stood at Rs 1,05,144 crore. He, however, clarified that the CTS was only a concept he floated and was open to a debate on the proposed scheme.

Not to be left behind, the fledgling PRP promised distribution of 2.5 acres of wet or 5 acres of dry land to the poor, one million jobs in 1,000 days, free power to farmers for 10 hours a day, unemployment allowance of Rs 1,000 a month for the youth, reservations for economically backward classes, pension and insurance for farmers and physically-challenged and a monthly oldage pension of Rs 500.

The Congress is already implementing various welfare schemes including free power to farmers, Rs 2-a-kg rice scheme, housing for weaker sections, health insurance and low cost loans to poor and self-help groups.

Doles apart, corruption has become the main plank of the election campaign of the grand alliance, while the PRP is focusing on the twin aspects of change and social justice. On the other hand, Congress is banking on its development agenda.

According to political observers, the coming Assembly elections are crucial for the long-term survival of the TDP, while the Lok Sabha polls in the state are crucial for the Congress for forming the next government at the Centre. This could be one of the reasons behind Congress president Sonia Gandhi’s two-day tour of the state a few days before the announcement of the election schedule.

In the last elections, Congress had been successful in sending 29 candidates from the state to the Lok Sabha. The party intends to better this performance in the current elections but it seems to be facing an uphill task though there are no visible anti-incumbancy feelings among the electorate at present.

Five parties headed by the Congress formed an alliance in the 2004 polls, which helped the party to corner nearly 70 per cent of the 42 Lok Sabha seats in the state. Today, three of these parties shifted their alliance to TDP and only All India Majlis Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) is sailing with the Congress. The five parties together secured 52.54 per cent of the total votes polled.

The figures indicate that the TRS and the two Left parties, which are now sailing with the TDP, together accounted for 9.21 per cent. Though the voting pattern may not be the same during the current Lok Sabha elections, the loss of the three parties vote bank is likely to dent the prospects of the Congress candidates this time.

Despite an alliance with three parties, the going for TDP also may not be smooth. The four-party alliance will not have a common manifesto. Among the alliance partners, CPM says that it is still committed for an integrated state, while the other three parties are going to campaign for separate statehood for Telangana. The seat-sharing process is also not yet complete and is turning out to be an irritant for Naidu with the allies demanding more seats than what they had contested last time.

For the PRP, the Election Commission declining to allot a common symbol for its candidate has come as a major setback. The party has approached the state high court in this regard.

Whatever maybe the outcome of the polls, there seems to be bitter battle ahead among the contestants.

GREATER HYDERABAD – ELECTIONS 2009 - WHO'S WHO

2009-03-16T01:46:00.000-07:00

GREATER HYDERABAD – ELECTIONS 2009

ELECTION PROCESS – March 23 - Notification, March 30 – Nominations, March 31 – Scrutiny, April 02 – Withdraw,
April 16 - Polling

ASSEMBLY SEATS – HYD + RR
Population: Voters: 66,85,377 Polling Stations:
HYDERABAD DISTRICT – ASSEMBLY Population: 30.04 Voters: 2927553 Polling Stations: 3229 Youth: 22.20 Minority: 41.6% (Muslims – 29.9%)

57 Musheerabad (Population: Voters: 112670 + 103852 = 216524) – Polling Stations: 209 Youth: 63% Minority: 48.5% (Muslims – 31.9%)
MLA – T Manemma
(Hyderabad (M Corp.+OG) (Part) Hyderabad (M Corp.) (Part) Ward No.1)

• INC : Jeevita Rajashekhar

• TDP

• TRS

• PRP

• BJP : K Lakshman

• CPI /CPM

• MIM

• Loksatta : Rohit Kumar

58 Malakpet (Population: Voters: 89913 + 88116 = 178029) – Polling Stations: 194 Youth: 68% Minority: 50.6% (Muslims – 39.9%)
MLA - Malreddy Rangareddy(Hyderabad (M Corp.+OG) (Part) Hyderabad (M Corp.) (Part) Ward No.16 Ward No.17 (Part) Block No. 8 and 9)

• INC : G Srinivas Yadav

• TDP

• TRS

• PRP

• BJP : Karunakar

• CPI /CPM

• MIM : Majid Khan

• Loksatta

59 Amberpet (Population: Voters: 95905 + 90549 = 186462) – Polling Stations: 176 Youth: 63% Minority: 38.2% (Muslims – 34.3%)
(Hyderabad (M Corp.+OG) (Part) Hyderabad (M Corp.) (Part) - Ward No.2 Ward No.3 (Part) Block No. 1 to 4)

• INC : Abid Rasool Khan

• TDP

• TRS

• PRP

• BJP : G Kishan Reddy

• CPI / CPM

• Loksatta : C Vinod Yadav

60 Khairatabad (Population: Voters: 109190 + 102716 = 211906) – Polling Stations: 200 Youth: 70% Minority: 33.2% (Muslims – 26.1%)
MLA - P Vishnuvardhan Reddy
(Hyderabad (M Corp.+OG) (Part) Hyderabad (M Corp.) (Part) Ward No.6 Ward No. 3 (Part) Block No. 5 and 6 Ward No.8 (Part) Block No. 2. Ward No.5 (Part) Block No. 10)

• INC : D Nagender

• TDP

• TRS

• PRP

• BJP : C Ramchandra Reddy

• CPI /CPM

• MIM

• Loksatta : Ravinder

61 Jubilee Hills (Population: Voters: 129501 + 116674 = 246175) – Polling Stations: 252 Youth: 65% Minority: 41% (Muslims – 39%)
(Hyderabad (M Corp.+OG) (Part) Hyderabad (M Corp.) (Part) Ward No.8 (Part) Block No. 1, 3 and 4)

• INC : P Vishuvardhan Reddy

• TDP

• TRS

• PRP : Humayyun

• BJP

• CPI / CPM

• MIM

• Loksatta : Pratibha Rao

62 Sanathnagar (Population: Voters: 89637 + 85909 = 175569) – Polling Stations: 178 Youth: 63% Minority: 32.2% (Muslims – 21.6%)
MLA – M Shashidhar Reddy
(Hyderabad (M Corp.+OG) (Part) Hyderabad (M Corp.) (Part) Ward No.7, 24 (excluding the area in AC – 46 Kukatpalle) and 25 to 30)

• INC : M Sashidhar Reddy

• TRS : Padma Rao

• PRP : P Vinay

• BJP : B Shyam Goud

• MIM

• Loksatta

63 Nampally (Population: Voters: 112183 109384 – 221613) – Polling Stations: 240 Youth: 70% Minority: 49.9% (Muslims – 44.4%)
(Hyderabad (M Corp.+OG) (Part) Hyderabad (M Corp.) (Part) Ward No. 10 to 12)

• INC

• TDP

• TRS

• PRP : Feroz Khan

• BJP : Ramulu

• CPI / CPM

• MIM : Moazam Khan

• Loksatta

64 Karwan (Population: Voters: 110172 + 104255 = 214543) – Polling Stations: 235 Youth: 73% Minority: 61.6% (Muslims – 46.7%)
MLA - Afsar Khan
(Hyderabad (M Corp.+OG) (Part) Hyderabad (M Corp.) (Part) Ward No.9 Ward No. 13 (Part) Block No. 3 to 6)

• INC

• TDP

• TRS : K Venkatesh

• PRP

• BJP

• CPI / CPM

• MIM : Afsar Khan

• Loksatta

65 Goshamahal (Population: Voters: 103013 + 95744 = 198797) - Polling Stations: 232 Youth: 68% Minority: 38% (Muslims – 26.5%)
(Hyderabad (M Corp.+OG) (Part) Hyderabad (M Corp.) (Part) Ward No. 4, 14 and 15 Ward No. 5 (Part) Block No. 1 to 9 Ward No. 13 (Part) Block No. 1 and 2.7)

• INC : Mukesh Goud

• TDP

• TRS

• PRP : Nirmal Yadav

• BJP : Prem Signh Rathod

• CPI / CPM

• MIM : Nandulal yadav

• Loksatta

66 Charminar (Population: Voters: 82445 + 76230 = 158712) – Polling Stations: 227 Youth: 75% Minority: 68.2% (Muslims – 46.3%)
MLA – Ahmed Pasha Quadri
(Hyderabad (M Corp.+OG) (Part) Hyderabad (M Corp.) (Part) Ward No. 20 to 23)

• INC

• TDP : Ali Bin Masqati

• PRP

• BJP

• MIM : Ahmed Balala

• MBT

• Loksatta

67 Chandrayangutta (Population: Voters: 80043 + 82928 = 163009) – Polling Stations: 198 Youth: 62% Minority: 40% (Muslims – 28%)
MLA – Akbaruddin Owaisi
(Hyderabad (M Corp.+OG) (Part) Hyderabad (M Corp.) (Part) Ward No.18 (Part) Block No. 1 to 3 and 8 to 14)

• INC

• TDP

• TRS

• PRP

• BJP

• MIM : Akbaruddin Owaisi

• MBT : Khayam Khan

• Loksatta

68 Yakutpura (Population: Voters: 107366 + 105131 = 212518) – Polling Stations: 242 Youth: 68.6% Minority: 56% (Muslims – 51%)
MLA – Mumtaz Khan
(Hyderabad (M Corp.+OG) (Part) Hyderabad (M Corp.) (Part)- Ward No.17 (Part) Block No. 1 to 7 Ward No.18 (Part) Block No. 6 and 7)

• INC

• TDP : Ibramim Masqati

• PRP : T Narsing Rao

• BJP

• MIM : Mumtaz Khan

• MBT

• Loksatta

69 Bahadurpura (Population: Voters: 90100 + 91180 = 181306) – Polling Stations: 212 Youth: 69.2% Minority: 49% (Muslims – 41.5%)
(Hyderabad (M Corp.+OG) (Part) Hyderabad (M Corp.) (Part) Ward No.18 (Part) Block No. 4 and 5 Ward No.19)

• INC

• TDP

• TRS

• PRP : Md.Yousuf

• BJP

• CPI / CPM

• MIM : Ahmed Pasha Quadri

• MBT

• Loksatta

70 Secunderabad (Population: Voters: 96422 + 95820 = 192302) – Polling Stations: 197 Youth: 70.4% Minority: 39.8% (Muslims – 27.5%)
MLA – T Srinivas Yadav
(Hyderabad (M Corp.+OG) (Part) Hyderabad (M Corp.) (Part) Ward No.33 (Part) Block No. 4 to 7 Ward No. 34 and 35 Osmania University Area)

• INC : Jayasudha

• TDP : T Srinivas Yadav

• PRP : Aga Reddy / Saranga Pani

• BJP : Venkata Ramani

• MIM

• Loksatta : A Maharani

71 Secunderabad Cantt. (SC) (Population: Voters: 92256 + 91959 = 184260) – Polling Stations: 192 Youth: 63% Minority: 28.2% (Muslims – 21.3%)
MLA - Saianna
(Hyderabad (M Corp.+OG) (Part) Hyderabad (M Corp.) (Part) Ward No. 31 and 32 Ward No.33 (Part) Block No.1 to 3 Secunderabad Cantonment Board)

• INC : M S Prabhakar

• TDP : Saianna

• TRS : G Nagesh

• PRP : N Ravikumar

• BJP

• Loksatta

• MIM

GREATER HYDERABAD – ASSEMBLY (RR + Medak)
Population: 38.30 Voters: 3757824 Polling Stations:

43 Medchal (Population: 398877 Voters:143455 + 136729 = 280222) – Polling Stations:
Youth: 66.6% Minority: 23.7% (Muslims – 19.8%)
MLA – T Devender Goud
(Medchal + Shamirpet + Ghatkesar and Keesara (Rural) Mandals)

• INC

• TDP

• TRS

• PRP

• BJP

• CPI / CPM

• Loksatta

44 Malkajgiri (Population: 450244 Voters: 171367 + 165516 – 336883) – Polling Stations: 330 Youth: 72.4% Minority: 38.2% (Muslims – 27.3%) (Malkajgiri Mandal)

• INC : A Vijay Kumar

• TRS : E Haribabu Yadav

• PRP : C Kanaka Reddy

• BJP : Ramchander Rao / Ballingam

• MIM

• Loksatta

45 Quthbullapur (Population: 458015 Voters: 143996 + 128442 = 272455) – Polling Stations: Youth: 67% Minority: 38% (Muslims – 19.6%) (Quthbullapur Mandal)

• INC : K M Pratap

• TRS : Vivekanad Goud

• PRP

• BJP : S Malla Reddy

• Loksatta : Ravinder

46 Kukatpalle (Hyderabad (M Corp.) (Part) Hyderabad (M Corp.) - Ward No.24 (Part) (Area in Balanagar Mandal) Kukatpalle (M) (Part) Kukatpalle (M) - Ward No. 5 to 16)

• INC : V Narsing Rao

• TRS : M Sudershan

• PRP : G Padma Rao

• BJP : Kanta Rao

• Loksatta : Jaya Prakash Narayan

47 Uppal (Population: 505664 Voters: 172156 + 152804 = 324992) – Polling Stations: Youth: 63% Minority: 38% (Muslims – 22.8%)
(Uppal Municipality + Kapra Municipality)

• INC : R Laxma Reddy

• TRS : G Shobhan Reddy

• PRP : P Krishnam Raju

• BJP : S V V S Prabhakar

• Loksatta : Jaswant Reddy

48 Ibrahimpatnam (Population: 241771 Voters: 98047 + 92538 = 190597) – Polling Stations: Youth: 69% Minority: 35% (Muslims – 27.1%)
(Hayathnagar + Ibrahimpatnam + Manchal and Yacharam Mandals)

• INC : Malreddy Rangareddy

• TDP

• TRS

• PRP

• BJP

• CPI / CPM

• MIM

• Loksatta

49 Lal Bahadur Nagar (Population: 556880 Voters: 191857 + 173835 = 365693) – Polling Stations: Youth: 70% Minority: 36% (Muslims – 30.1%)
(Saroornagar Mandal (Part) + Gaddiannaram (CT) + Lal Bahadur Nagar (M+OG) + (Part) Lal Bahadur Nagar (M) - Ward No. 1 to 10)

• INC : Sudheer Reddy

• TDP

• TRS

• PRP : Sama Ranga Reddy

• BJP : K Bal Reddy

• CPI / CPM

• Loksatta : E Rama Rao

50 Maheswaram (Population: 360287 Voters: 140047 + 133603 = 273658) – Polling Stations: Youth: 73% Minority: 25% (Muslims – 18.9%)
(Maheswaram and Kandukur Mandals Saroornagar Mandal (Part) Medbowli, Almasguda, Badangpet, Chintalakunta, Jalpalle, Mamidipalle, Kurmalguda and Nadargul (Rural) Mandals. Hyderabad (OG) (Part) Balapur (OG) - Ward No.36 Kothapet (OG) - Ward No.37 Venkatapur (OG) - Ward No.39 Mallapur (OG) - Ward No.40 Lal Bahadur Nagar (M+OG) (Part) Lal Bahadur Nagar (M) - Ward No.11 Nadargul (OG) (Part) - Ward No.12 Jillalguda (OG) - Ward No.15 Meerpet (CT))

• INC : Sabita Indrareddy

• TDP

• TRS

• PRP

• BJP

• CPI / CPM

• Loksatta

51 Rajendranagar (Population: 368280 Voters: 130034 + 123218 = 253364) – Polling Stations: Youth: 63% Minority: 37% (Muslims – 29.4%) (Rajendranagar and Shamshabad Mandals)

• INC : K Gyaneshwar

• TDP

• TRS

• PRP

• BJP : Prem Raj Yadav

• MIM : Rajmohan

• CPI / CPM

• Loksatta : Solkar Reddy

52 Serilingampally (Population: 468803 Voters: 194776 + 172478 = 367258) – Polling Stations: Youth: 60% Minority: 25% (Muslims – 16.4%)
(Serilingampally Mandal + Balanagar Mandal + (Part) Kukatpally (M)+(Part) Kukatpally (M) - Ward No. 1 to 4)

• INC

• TRS : Sudhakar Goud

• PRP : K Bhaskar Reddy

• BJP : Bheem Rao

• Loksatta : K Srinivas

53 Chevella (SC) (Population: 244310 Voters: 96291 + 92745 = 189121) – Polling Stations: Youth: 63% Minority: 28% (Muslims – 19.9%)
MLA – Sabita Indra Reddy
(Nawabpet + Shankarpalle + Moinabad + Chevella and Shabad Mandals)

• INC

• TDP : K S Ratnam

• PRP

• BJP

• Loksatta

54 Pargi (Population: 327149 Voters: 93644 + 96103 = 189807) – Polling Stations: Youth: 59% Minority: 24.7% (Muslims – 19.4%)
(Doma + Gandeed + Kulkacherla + Pargi and Pudur Mandals)

• INC : Rami Reddy / Rammohan Reddy

• TDP : Harishwar Reddy

• PRP

• BJP

• Loksatta

55 Vicarabad (SC) (Population: 260700 Voters: 90315 + 91146 = 181511) – Polling Stations: Youth: 65% Minority: 36.8% (Muslims – 27.7%)
(Marpalle + Mominpet + Vikarabad + Dharur and Bantwaram Mandals)

• INC : Prasad

• TRS : A Chandrashekhar

• PRP

• BJP

• MIM

• Loksatta

56 Tandur (Population: 270251 Voters: 87438 + 93358 = 180821) – Polling Stations: Youth: 61.5% Minority: 22.6% (Muslims – 22.1%)
(Peddemul + Tandur + Basheerabad and Yalal Mandals)

• INC : M Ramesh

• TDP : Mahender Reddy

• PRP

• BJP

• MIM

• Loksatta

40 Patencheru (Population: Voters: 124800 + 120402 = 245340 ) – Polling Stations: Youth: 61% Minority: 26.1% (Muslims – 18.3%)
(Jinnaram + Patencheru & Ramachandrapuram mandals)

• INC :

• TDP :

• TRS

• PRP

• BJP

• CPI / CPM

• MIM

• Loksatta

PARLIAMENTARY SEATS – HYD + RR Population: Voters: 6538840 Polling Stations:

7- MALKAJGIRI (Population: Voters: + = 21,15,947) – Polling Stations:
(43 Medchal + 44 Malkajgiri + 45 Qutbullapur + 46 Kukatpalle + 47 Uppal + 49 Lal Bahadur Nagar and 71 Secunderabad Cantt.)

• INC : V Hanumanth Rao

• TRS : Swami Goud

• PRP : T Devender Goud

• BJP : Indrasena Reddy

• MIM

• Loksatta

8- SECUNDERABAD (Population: Voters: + = 14,83,379) – Polling Stations:
MP – Anjan Kumar Yadav
(57 Musheerabad + 59 Amberpet + 60 Khairatabad + 61 Jubilee Hills + 62 Sanathnagar + 63 Nampally and 70 Secunderabad)

• INC : Anjan Kumar Yadav

• TDP : Vijayarama Rao

• PRP

• BJP : Bandaru Dattatreya

• MIM

• Loksatta

9- HYDERABAD (Population: Voters: + = 13,03,974) – Polling Stations:
MP – Asaduddin Owaisi
(58 Malakpet + 64 Karwan + 65 Goshamahal + 66 Charminar + 67 Chandrayangutta + 68 Yakutpura and 69 Bahadurpura)

• INC

• TDP : Zahed Ali Khan

• PRP

• BJP

• MIM : Asaduddin Owaisi

• Loksatta

10- CHEVELLA (Population: Voters: + = 16,35,540) – Polling Statiions:
(50 Maheswaram + 51 Rajendranagar +52 Serilingampally + 53 Chevella (SC)+ 54 Pargi + 55 Vicarabad (SC) and 56 Tandur)

• INC : Laxma Reddy

• TDP : Sunita Mahipal Reddy

• PRP

• BJP : Baddam Balreddy

• MIM

'Maha' bickering over Telangana seat sharing

2009-03-05T19:43:00.000-08:00
By M H Ahssan

No Consensus Over 10 Seats In Telangana

The Grand Alliance’s seat-sharing talks remained contentious with all the four partners staking claim on at least 10 assembly seats in the Telangana region. As a result, sources indicated that the joint first list that is expected to be announced by the middle of March is likely to be delayed.

Sources point out that all the four parties, the TDP, TRS, CPM and CPI, are quoting statistics and history to back their case. For instance, Station Ghanpur in Warangal district is presently represented by TDP leader Kadiam Srihari who defeated TRS candidate G Vijayrama Rao in the byelections held last year.

The TRS is insisting that it be left to them while the TDP argues that this has always been its bastion except during the 2004 elections and that it was N Chandrababu Naidu’s party that had emerged triumphant in the last byelections.

CPI MP Suravaram Sudhakar Reddy claims that Bhongir and Suryapet assembly seats should be allocated to them. Bhongir is presently represented by Uma Madhav Reddy of the TDP. But the TRS and CPM are also demanding this seat. Again, Alair in Nalgonda, is another bone of contention between the TDP, TRS and Left partners. M Narsimhulu of the TDP had won this seat over four times but lost in 2004. He narrowly lost in the byelections held in May 2008. The TRS, which won the Alair seat, too wants it and so do the Left parties.

According to sources, the TDP is not averse to leaving Suryapet to the CPI. Similarly, all the four parties are claiming for themselves the Medchal and Parigi assembly seats in RR district which are currently held by the TDP.

The TRS is eyeing the Malkajgiri Lok Sabha seat and contemplating to field
party secretary-general Vijayshanti. But the TDP is also claiming the seat on the grounds that it has two MLAs in the v i c i n i t y, namely, T Srinivas Yadav from Secunderabad and G Sayanna from Secunderabad Cantonment.

Since Wednesday, leaders of the four alliance parties have been interacting through tele-conference to find a solution to the issue. The exercise is likely to be completed in the next one week, the sources claim.

Why I am constesting Lok Sabha Election?

2009-03-03T23:53:00.000-08:00
I think that I speak for most of the people of India when I say, "I am just fed up with the politicians and the corruption." I think this is self explanatory and doesn’t need to be elaborated upon. We all saw the negative sentiment of the people against the politicians after the Mumbai terror attacks. We are living in a country where you can buy almost anything ranging from an election ticket, elected office to a religious post. We cannot organize a simple auction of flats without a scam or run a simple bus service without people getting killed. What more. You can even get away with murder. If you are not fed up then its time to wake up.

I will do something about it
We have all heard people say that “Something needs to be done” but nobody ends up doing anything. Even when somebody does something about it, it is at the individual level which becomes interesting to read or hear about but it does not address the root cause of the problem. Well, my first reason for becoming a candidate is that “I have decided to do something about it” in my own small way, that is, I have decided to be a candidate for the Lok Sabha elections in either 2009 or the next election in 2014. I may be a little late for 2009 elections but lets see how it goes.

Why do I want to contest for election?
“CITIZEN should be the King” but in reality he is a “beggar.” “CITIZEN is King” will become true only when the current group of politicians face competition or risk losing their elected office.

I believe that we, the people of India, need to take the following steps to make the government work for us. These steps are as follows:

(a) All the people who are eligible to vote, should vote.

(b) Honest people should contest elections to provide alternatives to people to vote for as well as provide competition to the current group of politicians.

(c) People who are eligible to vote should vote for people with a positive record.

All the above three steps need working on simultaneously otherwise we will not be able to achieve what we want to achieve, that is, making the Citizen of this country “king.” A number of people are working on the first step, that is, encouraging more and more people to register and vote. Tata Tea’s campaign and website Jagore.com is an excellent example. As mentioned earlier, it is absolutely necessary for everybody who is entitled to vote to vote but I am not sure that this alone will solve our problems.

Why? Simple. We will just continue to do what we have been doing in the past, that is, elect Congress for 1 / 2 terms and then elect BJP but with more and more votes. Similarly, in UP we elect Mayawati or Mulayam Singh Yadav with more and more votes. What good would it do? We will be voting for the same guys. Do you guys see any hope for our country in this scenario? Do you think we will get where we want to go with this system? I don't think so.

Every 4 or 8 years, we simply vote for either the Congress or the BJP. These parties know that for sometime they will rule and for sometime the opposition will rule. For the citizen, nothing really changes for the better. We just get what we mistakenly think is better of the two evils.

As mentioned earlier, we need to work on action 2 and 3 above. Currently, there is no competition for the politicians. As such, there is no incentive for the politicians to improve. All the noise that people made after the Mumbai terror attacks will have no significant effect on the way politicians act. For them, it will be business as usual. We need to stop shouting from outside because there is no one listening. We need to get inside to get a voice and to do something about our country aswell as our life as a citizen of this nation.

We have all experienced the power of competition in the business world. We all know that it is the competition which ultimately brings benefits to the customers in terms of improved quality and lower prices of products. It is the competition that makes customer a “King” by providing alternatives products. Competition also serves as a deterrent to businesses going slack.

Similarly, I believe that we also need to bring in competition in the field of “Country Management” which we today refer to as “Politics.” (To know more about the difference between Country Management and Politics, click here.) I believe that the first thing that we as Citizens of this country should do is provide competition to our elected officials. Only when competition comes in, that the current group of politicians will realize that they have to perform or perish. It is competition in “Country Management” (or politics) that will make the “citizen” and the “voter” the “King.” I have decided that I want to increase the competition in politics by providing the people an “Alternative” to vote for. I want to encourage other people to also contest elections and provide the alternative.

Lastly, we as voters have to think who we are voting for. Let us not vote for the same group of people who are corrupt again and again. Let us not vote for people who are corrupt and incompetent. Let us not vote for politicians who get your personal work done but do not change the system. Let us VOTE FOR people who will establish a system so that not only your work gets done but everybody’s work gets done without any hassles without any bribes or favours.

Imagine, if the people of this country completely replaced all the current politicians with new faces who are honest. Don’t you think we will be able to change the system? Don’t you think we will be able to reduce corruption? Don’t you think we will be able to organize a simple auction of flats without a scam? Don’t you think we will be able to close the BRT system in Delhi which doesn’t make sense as well as it is killing the common citizen? Don’t you think we can stop allotment of licenses for peanuts to companies like Unitech which has caused a loss of Rs. 40,000 crores to the people of this country? Don’t you think we will be able to improve all aspects of our life?

However, we all know that this is not going to happen immediately. Maybe it can. Nobody thought that an African American or a woman could become the president of USA but an African American Barak Obama did become the president and a woman came pretty close to becoming one. The power lies in YOU and ME to bring about a 180 degree change. The power lies in US to completely replace all the politicians who are corrupt and incompetent.

Whether we achieve our goal immediately or take a little time doing it, we have to make a start. But someone has to start the process. We have to start sometime. The sooner the better. That someone is YOU and I. The time to start is NOW and not later.

Stop shouting from outside. Get inside.
We, as the people of this country, can complain all we want and as loudly as we want but we will not get an appropriate response from the politicians. Why? Simply, because they know that after they are elected, we have no power to do anything. We are helpless. As such, we need to get the power by being elected. As a MP or MLA, we will acquire the authority and status to ask questions, to take action as well as to raise our voice for the benefit of the general public who own the country. As a MP or MLA, we will be heard. Government officials and newspapers will not ignore us.

AP ELECTIONS: A TALE OF TWO CITIES

2009-03-03T21:59:00.000-08:00
By M H Ahssan

The geopolitical dynamics of Rayalaseema will test the clout of prominent personalities. So who will capture Tirupati? Who will lord over Kadapa?

The pilgrim town of three lakhs, Tirupati, is always brimming with devouts waiting for a darshan of the Lord on the hills in Tirumala, so much so that it is difficult to distinguish between a permanent resident and a temporary visitor. This being the case, it is well nigh impossible to pick up electoral trends in the rapidly growing town. But local analysts swear that Tirupati will vote for Chiranjeevi in the upcoming elections. Going by utterances of brother-in-law Allu Aravind, Tirupati - from where Prajarajyam (PR) was launched late last year - will be one of the two constituencies from which the mega star will contest.

“Chiranjeevi garu will certainly win from this constituency. People are looking for a change and will settle for him,” claims R Venkaiah, owner of Sindhuri Park hotel who also looks after Prajarajyam affairs in Tirupati. Analysts also feel that Chiranjeevi will make it though PR has serious party problems in Tirupati. “The party machinery is in disarray or rather there is no party organisation here. This means there is no machinery to convert support to votes,” says a political analyst.

Travelling on the road from Tirupati in a north westerly direction, you soon enter Kadapa, the home district of Rajasekhara Reddy. But you are still in Chiranjeevi territory. Large banners of a much younger Chiranjeevi dot the road from the town of Rajampet. “There are a lot of Balijas, the Rayalaseema version of Kapus, here. All of them will vote for Prajarajyam,” say local analysts. Rajampet, although in Kadapa district, is a separate Lok Sabha seat and the present incumbent is a Congressman.

It is only after you leave Rajampet and move towards Kadapa that you start feeling the influence of Rajasekhara Reddy and his son Jagan and by the time you enter the 4.5 lakh strong Kadapa town, this presence is overpowering. Festoons and large cut outs of Jagan dominate the half-modern, half-decrepit town that was once reputed to be second only in backwardness to Adilabad. “Jagan is likely to make his political debut for the Lok Sabha from here,” says a local analyst. The present incumbent is Jagan’s uncle and Rajasekhara Reddy’s younger brother Vivekananda Reddy but the local buzz is that the latter has been persuaded to vacate the seat for nephew dear.

Rajasekhara Reddy himself used to represent Kadapa town in Lok Sabha in the past and just as he did in Pulivendula, is pumping in huge moneys and resources to recreate Kadapa. “We have spent Rs 20 crore in the last two-anda-half years to improve the distribution system in the city,” says divisional engineer of electricity distribution N Srinivasulu. “Road expansions, widening and double laning of roads are in full swing all over Kadapa town and the entire district,” says R & B executive engineer Vivekananda Reddy. He adds: “Twenty bridges are being constructed across various rivers at a cost of Rs 66 crore.” In Kadapa city itself, seven bridges have been constructed over the dry Buggawanka river.

Other infrastructure is also being upgraded. A brand new zilla parishad conference hall has been constructed at the cost of Rs 8 crore. A branch of Hyderabad Public School is being opened and so is a Shilparamam like that in Hyderabad. A brand new Rajiv Gandhi Institute of Medical Sciences on a huge campus has started operating and an international cricket stadium named after Rajasekhara Reddy’s father Raja Reddy is being built. An IT park has also been planned in the vicinity of the town. “It is a good start but a lot more remains to be done,” says a local resident pointing out to the dirtier part of the city.

Yet all this has not deterred IT entrepreneur Srikant Reddy who is being fielded by TDP to challenge Jagan. Srikant lives in Hyderabad, but even his festoons dot Kadapa and his neighbourhood. More than that, Srikant’s father - former AP High Court chief justice Chenna Kesava Reddy - though still alive, has a life -size statue on a main road in town. “This is a Reddy dominated town and district. Here only a Reddy can take on a Reddy,” laments a local analyst.

The Reddys however do not comprise more than 15 per cent of the population of the Kadapa Lok Sabha seat; Balijas reputedly comprise 30 per cent, Muslims about 15 per cent and other backward castes and SCs around 45 per cent. “In Kadapa town, Muslims constitute around 35 per cent of the population,” says TDP corporator Subhan Pasha, hoping for an MLA seat.

“We want to rid the place of mafia,” says Srikant’s cousin Mallikarjun, but some Congress supporters say that the place was really controlled by mafia men some 20 years ago, not now. “In the 1980s there used to be kidnappings and the law and order situation was really bad. Now things are much better. With increasing economic opportunities even criminal elements have changed their priorities,” a local resident says. Others claim that Srikant is in the fray only because of personal reasons. They say that he was earlier very thick with Vivekananda Reddy, but has since fallen out, so his electoral fight is his own way of getting even with the enemy.

Does your MP value your vote?

2009-03-03T21:55:00.000-08:00
By M H Ahssan

Does your MP attend Parliament? Does he/she ask questions in the House? Does he/she participate in debates? Between them, the answers to these questions should provide you the bare bones of how effectively your MP carries out core functions. Here’s what we found on examining the data.

Statistics show that nearly one-tenth of MPs in the 14th Lok Sabha have never participated in any debate, while the names of another one-third figure in less than 10 debates in data of the first 13 sessions.

Here, we are treating all discussions other than those under Rule 377 — which we consider separately in the accompanying piece — as debates. On average, a member of this LS has participated 24 times in debates held in the last four and half years. Ministers are excluded in these calculations.

Samajwadi Party’s Shailendra Kumar leads with 312 entries against his name, followed by Basudeb Barman, Ram Kripal Yadav, Bhartruhari Mahtab and Varkala Radhakrishnan.

With 60 participations per MP, Kerala leads the major states plus Delhi list. Delhi is second with 52 debates per member, while with 47 per head, Orissa MPs are the third most active lot. With less than 15 per MP, Assam, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh and Haryana are at the bottom of the list.

Among major parties, CPI emerges best with an average of 58 entries per MP. BJD at 55 and CPM at 41 are the next best. The NCP performed worst with an average of only 2 per MP. As for questions, 78 members did not ask a single question in the first 13 sessions. Another 167 asked fewer than 10 each.

Averaging at 453 questions per MP, Shiv Sena is at the top of the party list, BJD’s next with 291 just ahead of CPI with 290. Averaging 118, 104 and 34 respectively the BSP, CPM and Akalis make up the bottom three of the list.

Abu Ayes Mondal’s 97% attendance makes him top the attendance list for full-term MPs, while ailing former PM Atal Bihari Vajpayee is at the bottom. The overall average attendance of the House for the first 14 sessions was 68.8%. Attendance need not mean actual presence in the House through the day. It only means the MP has come to the House and signed his presence. Thus, BJP averaged 90% in the first session, which the party had boycotted.

Has your MP kept the promise of demanding stoppage of a s uperfast train at your station? Has he raised the issue of improving the condition of sick sugar mills and reconstitution of local cooperatives? Has he drawn the House’s attention to the declining handloom industry in your area? You can hold your MP to account by accessing the data available on the Lok Sabha (LS) website, which unfortunately shows that nearly one-third of MPs never raise these issues.

The Parliament provides provision to raise matters of general public interest that can’t be raised during question hour, ‘calling attention’ motions and resolutions. Under Rule 377, LS members can raise matters that weren’t raised during the same session under any other rule, which can be local but primarily concerned with the central government.

For the first 13 sessions of the ongoing LS, there are 3,326 entries under Rule 377. Excluding ministers, the entries reduce to 3,200 against 348 members. That means 166 MPs never raised any issue under this rule. Apart from them, another 224 members have less than 10 entries under 377. Simply put, most have only occasionally used the provision. With 52 entries against his name, S K Kharventhan tops the list while Virjibhai Thummar, NSV Chitthan, Rajnarayan Budholiya and Karan Singh Yadav are the others who figured in ‘best five’ for raising issues under Rule 377.

Averaging at 15 entries per member, Himachal Pradesh and Uttaranchal top the list of major states, while MPs from Punjab and Haryana averaged just 3 entries per MP. Averaging 8 entries per member, the RJD, CPI and Congress are the three best parties here. The Akali Dal is the worst, as its average member has raised local issues only twice in the 13 sessions so far.

Every Lok Sabha member is entitled to receive Rs 2 crore annually, under the Member of Parliament Local Area Development Scheme (MPLADS). MPs can allocate the money for developmental needs of their constituencies. Data shows that only 6% of MPs have spent less than 80% of their fund.

All five figuring at the bottom of this list are from Bihar. Meira Kumar at 52% shows up worst, while Uday Singh, Rajesh Kumar Manjhi and Ranjeeta Ranjan failed to spend even 60% of the fund.

About 5 lakh Hyderabad voters may miss voting this time

2009-03-03T21:52:00.000-08:00
By M H Ahssan

The Greater Hyderabad Municipal Corporation (GHMC) cleared that over 4.6 lakh voters whose photographs were not made available to the corporation may not be able to vote in the coming elections.

Of the 30,04,998 voters in the 15 assembly constituencies falling within Hyderabad district, the photographs of 25,41,347 voters (about 84 per cent) were taken by the corporation staff in various phases. “It will not be possible for the GHMC to issue before the elections electoral photo identity cards (EPICs) to the 4.6 lakh voters whose photographs were not taken,” GHMC additional commissioner (elections) Neetu Prasad told TOI.

The number of voters was decided as per the final publication of the electoral rolls on January 22, 2009. According to officials, 1.96 lakh voters got registered during the revision of the electoral rolls. “Of these, 1.2 lakh EPICs are ready and will be dispatched to the voters. The I-D cards of the remaining 70,000 voters will also be made ready in the next few weeks. However, the 4.6 lakh voters will have to sit out this elections,” the officials said.

The corporation also has a backlog of EPICs to be delivered to the voters. “At least five lakh EPICs are lying in the municipal circle offices and designated photographic location (DPL) centres. While some were distributed in the Musheerabad, Secunderabad and Khairatabad constituencies before the byelections last year, the bulk of them remains to be distributed, the officials said.

In some localities, though many voters got their EPICs, fresh ones have to be issued as the constituency changed in many instances due to the delimitation exercise.

For example, many voters in Jubilee Hills were earlier voting in the Khairatabad assembly but will now fall under the newly-created Jubilee Hills assembly constituency.

DEFYING GRAVITY TO BRING GOODIES TO HOME TURF

2009-03-03T00:56:00.000-08:00
By M H Ahssan

The first sight that greets a visitor as he enters Pulivendula town through the road from Kadapa is an under-construction, gated residential complex with spacious bungalows that would seem more appropriate in Hyderabad. The road itself is broad, eminently motorable, sans any potholes. This makes the 70 km journey from a remote district headquarters to this small town that was till lately a big village, a pleasurable ride, even on a mid-afternoon with the mercury hugging 40 degree celsius.

With low hills in the distance on both the sides and fields dotted with sunflowers, the ride is through picturesque country too. “You will see this kind of road whichever side you enter Kadapa from,” says Krishna Mohan Reddy, a special grade deputy collector who has been posted in Pulivendula by chief minister Y S Rajasekhara Reddy, to take care of his home constituency. “We propose to make the entire road to Pulivendula from Kadapa, four-laned. There are four other roads important to Pulivendula. All of them will become double-laned. The internal roads of the town are also being made cement concrete”, says the official in a promise that proposes to radically transform the area hitherto more backward than even parts of backward Telangana.

Rajasekhara Reddy has been the MLA from Pulivendula five times but this time, being the chief minister, he is using all the powers at his disposal to bring development to the door step of the place that was apparently an abode of tigers centuries ago. Since it is a perpetually dry and arid area, Rajasekhara promises to bring water hundreds of kilometres from the river Krishna to irrigate the fields of Pulivendula. This will be achieved through a series of interconnected projects which will channelise the waters of Krishna thorough the Pothireddypadu head regulator to the underconstruction Gandikota dam. From this dam, situated north in the Kadapa district, the water will be lifted through five lift irrigation schemes to irrigate Pulivendula. It’s like defying gravity - Pulivendula is at a higher altitude whereas Gandikota and the river Krishna are at a lower level. But the government is spending thousands of crores to do this, an analyst pointed out.

The water will help to diversify the cropping pattern in Pulivendula which is now restricted to low revenue yielding sunflower, raw banana, bengal gram, sweet oranges and other horticulture crops that are dependent on drip irrigation. “We are proposing to undertake soil mapping in this area to figure out which piece of land is best for cultivating what”, says Krishna Mohan Reddy. An industrial base is also being proposed for the Pulivendula neighbourhood. Even as the contours of a textile mill have started taking shape, a uranium mine and processing plant at a cost of $270 million has been approved by the Andhra Pradesh government to come up 15 km away from the town. “A lot of people will come to live here. Therefore the infrastructure of the town is being developed”, says Krishna Mohan Reddy. A gram panchayat till 2005 whose sarpanch was Jayamma, the mother of Rajasekhara Reddy, Pulivendula now has a municipality that is readying an underground sewerage system. Drinking water supply storage facilities to last 10 months is being organised for the town, even as a Ring road to gird Pulivendula is on the anvil.

Yet physical infrastructure is not the only plan of Rajasekhara Reddy men. Among other things, even a Ravindra Bharati type auditorium is being planned for the town of 60,000. The Pulivendula neighbourhood, including the rural areas, has a population of 200,000. A IIIT has already started functioning in the area and the first batch of students will come out soon. A campus of JNTU is also proposed. The tourism circuit will also take visitors around the area and a local temple has been handed over to the resource rich TTD for upkeep. Pulivendula will have everything, save the fact that the nearest railway head is over 30 km from here, says an aide of the chief minister.

But TDP’s Srikant Reddy, a Stanford-returned IT entrepreneur, who will contest the Kadapa Lok Sabha seat is clearly not impressed by this development. “A reign of terror has been unleashed in the area. The development is only for the YSR family and their henchmen”, he says. Srikant is now focusing the attention of the Election Commission and people’s initiatives like Election Watch to ensure that there is free and fair election in Pulivendula. He claims that muscle power plays a major role on voting day here. Prajarajyam’s K Murthy dittos Srikant’s views. “Only a few people have benefited from this development. The YSR family has commandeered public resources and assets like land for self-aggrandizement. This is public knowledge”, Murthy declares. Needless to add, Congressmen pooh pooh all this asserting that every family in Pulivendula has benefited in some way or the other by the YSR raj.

As we motor out of Pulivendula in the midst of assertions and accusations, it seems clear that the voters of the constituency will vote solidly for the man whose continuance promises a bonanza for them.

AP to vote on April 16, 23

2009-03-03T00:52:00.000-08:00
By M H Ahssan

Elections to 294 assembly and 42 parliamentary constituencies in Andhra Pradesh will be held in two phases. First phase of polling will take place on April 16 covering Telangana and north Coastal Andhra, and the second phase on April 23 will cover Rayalaseema and Andhra regions. Counting of votes will be on May 16.

Briefing media on Monday, the state chief electoral officer I V Subba Rao said in the first phase, polls will be held for 22 parliamentary constituencies and in the second phase, the remaining 20 parliamentary constituencies will go to polls. The notification for the assembly and Lok Sabha constituencies that go to polls on April 16 will be issued on March 23. Last date for filing nomination papers is March 30, scrutiny of the nominations will take place on March 31. April 2 is the last date for withdrawal of candidature. In the first phase, 154 assembly constituencies will go to polls.

Notification for the constituencies going to polls on April 23 will be issued on March 28. The last date for filing nominations will be April 4. Scrutiny will take place on April 6 and April 8 will be the last date for withdrawal of nominations. In the second phase, polling will be held for 140 assembly constituencies.

The 22 parliamentary constituencies that go to polls in the first phase are: Adilabad, Peddapalli, Karimnagar, Nizamabad, Zahirabad, Medak, Malkajgiri, Secunderabad, Hyderabad, Chevella, Mahbubnagar, Nagarkurnool, Nalgonda, Bhongir, Warangal, Mahabubabad, Khammam, Araku, Srikakulam, Vizianagaram, Visakhapatnam, Anakapalle.

The 20 parliamentary constituencies going to polls in the second phase are: Kakinada, Amalapuram, Rajahmundry, Narsapuram, Eluru, Machilipatnam, Vijayawada, Guntur, Narsaraopet, Bapatla, Ongole, Nandyal, Kurnool, Anantapur, Hindupur, Kadapa, Nellore, Tirupati, Rajampet and Chittoor.

The Election Commission also announced the schedule for election of nine Council members through the local authorities constituencies to be held on March 30.

The local authorities constituencies going to polls are Warangal, Prakasam, Visakhapatnam, Nalgonda, Medak, Nizamabad, Khammam, Karimnagar and Mahbubnagar. Notification for the polls will be issued on March 6, last date for filing nominations will be March 13. Scrutiny will take place on March 14, withdrawal of candidature will be on March 16. Polling will take place on March 30 and counting will be held on April 4.

PHASE-I APRIL 16
Adilabad, Peddapalli, Karimnagar, Nizamabad, Zahirabad, Medak, Malkajgiri, Secunderabad, Hyderabad, Chevella, Mahbubnagar, Nagarkurnool, Nalgonda, Bhongir, Warangal, Mahbubabad, Khammam, Araku, Srikakulam, Vizianagaram, Visakhapatnam, Anakapalle.

PHASE - II APRIL 23
Kakinada, Amalapuram, Rajahmundry, Narsapuram, Eluru, Machilipatnam, Vijayawada, Guntur,Narsaraopet, Bapatla, Ongole, Nandyal, Kurnool, Anantapur, Hindupur, Kadapa, Nellore, Tirupati, Rajampet and Chittoor.

INDIA GENERAL ELECTIONS 2009 NOTIFICATION ANNOUNCED

2009-03-02T03:20:00.001-08:00
By Kajol Singh

Lok Sabha polls will be held in five phases from April 16 to May 13, the Election Commission announced on Monday.

The five phased polls will be held in Jammu and Kashmir and Uttar Pradesh while Bihar will have four-phased elections, Chief Election Commissioner N Gopalaswami told a press conference in New Delhi.

Maharashtra and West Bengal will witness three phased polls while Andhra Pradesh, Assam, Manipur, Jharkhand, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Orissa and Punjab will have elections in two phases.

Remaining 15 states and seven union territories will have one-day polling.

The counting of votes will take place on May 16 and the 15th Lok Sabha will be constituted by June two.

In the first phase, 124 constituencies will go to polls on April 16. 141 constituencies will witness balloting in the second phase on April 23, 107 seats in third phase on April 30, 85 seats in fourth phase on May 7 and 86 constituencies in the last phase on May 13.

Elections to Assemblies in Andhra Pradesh, Sikkim and Himachal Pradesh will be held simultaneously with the Lok Sabha polls.

Photo electoral rolls will be used for the first time in 522 out of the 543 constituencies, Gopalaswami said.

499 constituencies have been redrawn in the delimitation exercise.

Delimitation could not be undertaken in Andhra, Assam, Jharkhand, Manipur and Nagaland, Gopalaswami said.

At least 71.4 crore will be the number of eligible voters, an increase of 4.3 crore over the 2004 figure of 67.1

The Commission will be using around 11 lakh electronic voting machines for the exercise to be held in eight lakh polling stations.

Around 40 lakh civil staff and 21 lakh security personnel will be deployed for the smooth conduct of elections, Gopalaswami said.

The dates were finalised taking into account aspects like school board examinations, local holidays, festivals and harvest, said Gopalaswami, who was flanked by Election Commissioners Naveen Chawla, whose removal he had sought for alleged "misconduct", and MY Qureishi.

On government's advice, President Pratibha Patil rejected the CEC's recommendation paving the way for Chawla to become the next head of the poll panel. Gopalaswami retires on April 20.

The poll schedule was worked out after series of meetings with political parties, Chief Secretaries and Director Generals of Police and Railway Board officials starting from February three, the CEC said.

What is the Model Code of Conduct?

2009-03-01T21:24:00.000-08:00
By M H Ahssan

Disallows Comments On Private Lives Of Workers Of Other Party

The Model Code of Conduct for political parties and candidates is a set of election commission guidelines about their conduct after the announcement of elections. It includes instructions about holding of meetings, organising processions and also the conduct of parties on polling days. It comes into force immediately after the announcement of elections.

What are the guidelines for general conduct?
The code prohibits parties and candidates from indulging in activities that can cause tension between people of different regions, castes, communities or religions. Mosques, churches, temples or other places of worship should not be used as forums for election propaganda. Parties have to ensure that their supporters do not create any obstruction in functions organised by other parties. Even removal of another party’s posters is considered a violation of the code.

The code also disallows comments on the private lives of leaders or workers of other parties. Apart from this, no political party or candidate is permitted to use any individual’s land, building, compound wall, etc., without the owners permission for erecting flag-staffs, suspending banners, pasting notices, writing slogans and so on. Voters can not be intimidated or bribed in any way to vote for a particular party or candidate.

Doesn’t the ruling party have an advantage over others?
One of the main objectives of the code is to level the playing field. The code ensures that a party in power, whether at the Centre or in a state, can not use the official machinery or personnel for electioneering work. The use of government transport, including official aircraft and other vehicles for election campaign, is prohibited by the code. Election related advertisements at public expense and the misuse of official mass media for coverage of political news and publicity is also not allowed. Apart from this, the code ensures that other parties also have an equal opportunity for holding election meetings at public places like ‘maidans’ and using public infrastructure like helipads and government guest houses for election purposes.

Can’t the ruling party manipulate elections by taking major policy decision?
From the day of the announcement of election, even before the formal notification, the code prohibits ministers from sanctioning grants and other related payments out of discretionary funds. Ministers and political persons are also not allowed to lay foundation stones of any new project or scheme once the code is in force. Any ad-hoc appointments in government or any other related public undertaking is also not allowed.

What is the code for the polling day?
Every party has to issue badges and identity cards to its authorised workers for proper identification purpose. Unnecessary crowd outside the candidate’s camp is not allowed as it can lead to clashes between different contesting parties. No food or refreshment can be served to voters. Apart from this, the code also tries to ensure that there is no distribution of liquor on the polling day or 24 hours before the polls.

Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen – Thriving on the ideology of its pre-Independence parent body

2009-02-19T01:32:00.000-08:00
By R Upadhyay

The All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (All India Council of the Muslims), an incarnation of Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (MIM) of pre-Independent India claims to be the sole representative body of the Muslim society of Andhra Pradesh. With one Lok Sabha seat, which the party has retained since 1984 till 2004 election, five MLAs in Andhra Prdesh Assembly, forty Corporators in Hyderabad city and about one hundred members elected to various municipal bodies, its claim is perhaps justified.

While taking over the command of the pre-Independence MIM in 1957 by prefixing All India to this name, Abdul Wahed Owaisi declared the party’s commitment to Indian constitution but three MLAs led violent assault on Taslima Nasreen, a Muslim woman writer of Bangladesh on August 9 this year proved its tunneled mindset, which is hardly in time negotiates with the spirit of secular democracy in the country. A trusted ally of the ruling Congress, it is known as “an Islamic, fundamentalist, secessionist, communal and political party in India that was founded by radicals among the Muslim population of Hyderabad and Muslim dominated areas of Andhra Pradesh though it has units in some parts of Karnataka and Maharashtra”(Wikipedia, the free encyclopaedia).

To know further about the Islamist character of the party, we may look into the historical background of its parent body as well as its own contribution towards radicalization of the Muslim society. Like August 9 incident this year, the pre-Independence MIM also came in hot news on this eventful day of Indian History sixty five years back in 1942, when it had opposed ‘Quit India’ movement against the colonial British power and mobilized the Muslims of then Hyderabad State for defending the Islamic rule of Nizam. Founded in 1927 by a group of Islamists of Hyderabad initially as a socio-religious organization, its successive presidents particularly Nawab Bahadur Yar Jung, a religio-political activist and Qasim Rizvi, a militant Islamist gradually turned it into an Islamic fundamentalist, secessionist, communal and a pro-Nizam political party.

For MIM “the ruler throne (Nizam) is the symbol of the political and cultural rights of the Muslim community …. (and) this status must continue for ever”. (Party Politics in Andhra Pradesh by Vadakattu Hanumantha Rao, 1983, Page 163). Under the leadership of Bahadur Yar Jung, the party “proclaimed Muslims as the monarchs of Deccan with Nizam as only the symbolic expression of their political sovereignty. It demanded the creation of an independent Hyderabad to synchronise with the lapse of British paramountcy” (State Government and Politics – Andhra Pradesh by Reddy & Sharma, 1979, page392).

After the death of Bahadur Yar Jung in early forties of the last century, the command of the MIM was taken over by Kasim Razvi, who enrolled a large number of Muslim youths as Razakars to fight against the freedom fighters of Congress, Arya Samaj and Hindu Mahasabha and emerged as “champion of Muslims and protector of a Muslim State”. The militancy of the party however reached to its peak on the eve of independence, when Nizam was virtually put on hold by the MIM and was not allowed to sign the instrument of accession of Hyderabad State with Indian Union. In fact about 150,000 Razakars led by Razvi created a reign of terror against the non-Muslims and forced the Nizam to buy time under the cover of negotiation. The militant mindset of Razvi could be judged from his threat to Government of India during one of his talks with V.P.Menon, the then Secretary in Ministry of States in Delhi. He said, “if Government of India insisted on a plebiscite, the final arbiter could only be the sword”(Integration of the Indian States by V.P.Menon, page334). Similarly in one of his jehadi speeches as published in press, he asserted: “The day is not far off when the waves of the Bay of Bengal will be washing the feet of our sovereign”. He further declared that “he would plant the Asaf Jahi flag on the Red Fort in Delhi” (Ibid. page 352). Such statements of Razvi suggested that the latter was virtually the ruler of Hyderabad State. However, the sword of Rizvi failed to protect the end of the autocratic rule of Nizam, who surrendered at 1700 hour on September 17, 1948 and integration of Hyderabad State with Indian Union became a reality. MIM was proscribed and Razvi was jailed. He was released only in 1957, when he gave an undertaking to migrate to Pakistan within forty-eight hours of his release.

The story of the over one year delay in the integration of Hyderabad suggests that dependence of Nizam on an Islamist like Razvi was the main reason behind not only for his humiliating surrender before Indian army but also for demoralisation of the Muslim society of Hyderabad. His radio speech on September 23 was in fact a confession of being a prisoner of a group of MIM activists led by Razvi. He said, “In November last, a small group which had organized a quasi-military organization surrounded the homes of my Prime Minister, the Nawab of Chhatari, in whose wisdom I had complete confidence, and of Sir Walter Monkton, my constitutional Adviser, by duress compelled the Nawab and other trusted ministers to resign and forced the Laik Ali Ministry on me. This group headed by Kasim Razvi had no stake in the country or any record of service behind it. By methods reminiscent of Hitelerite Germany it took possession of the State, spread terror … and rendered me completely helpless.” (From Autocracy to Integration by Lucien D Benichou, Orient Longman 2000, Page 237).

Before his migration to Pakistan Rizvi handed over the command of the MIM to Abdul Wahed Owaisi an advocate and one of the richest Muslims of Hyderabad, who was known for his strong relations with Nizam. Owaisi revived the MIM with a new name of All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen. He re-wrote its constitution and accepted Hyderabad as a part of Indian Union. Re-naming the party just by prefixing All India in it and re-writing its constitution was however, an eye wash as its subsequent behaviour showed.

Although Owaisi was an eye witness to all the misdeeds of Razvi, the Islamist element in him did not allow him to be reconciled with the loss of an independent Islamic State. “In 1957 the MIM was revived in Hyderabad and a decade later was petitioning the Government of India for the foundation of a purely Muslim State on India’s eastern coast” (Encyclopaedia of Islam – Lieden E.J.Brill, Vol. V, Page 1081). For over a decade the MIM maintained a low profile and remained a marginal player in the politics of Hyderabad but gradually Owaisi cashed on the hidden anger of Muslim society against the loss of Islamic power in the state. “Majlis played passion politics by trading on hate-Hindu sentiments and cashed on the angry Muslim electorates” (Party Politics in Andhra Pradesh – Hanumantha Rao, 1983, Page 164).

In 1976 Salahuddin Owaisi, a widely traveled barrister son of Abdul Wahed Owaisi took over the presidentship of the party after the death of his father and launched an aggressive campaign for the cause of his community members. Increasingly aligning the party with the fundamentalist ideology of its parent body the Owaisis carried forward the legacy of parent organization, which was “regarded as remarkably aggressive and a violent face of Muslim militancy as it organized the Razakars to defend the independence of this Muslim State with Indian Union”.

Popularly known as ‘Salar-e-Millat’ (Commander of the community), he criticized the Indian state for allegedly abandoning the Muslims to their fate and replayed the communal and militant politics of Razvi. He reminded his community members of their past glory and “compared the Majlis to the Black Power Movement of America” (www.nowpublic.com). Since 1984 he retained the Communal politics of Nizam days and never made any effort to transform the communalized Muslim masses of Hyderabad into secular and democratic Indians. Instead Owaisi family used this organization only as a platform for serving the communal interest of the Islamists in general and its vested political interest in particular. One fails to understand as to why he retained the name of the party, which had led the Razakars against Indian army? The answer lies with the Nizam-days mindset of Owaisis.

The MIM legislators opposed the motion which AP Assembly had placed for condemning the 9/11 attack on America. This was a reflection of the Islamist mindset of the AIMIM. Just on the eve of 2004 election Salahuddin stepped down in favour of his eldest son Asaduddin, who won this seat with a very big margin. His second son Akbaruddin became the leader of the five-member legislative group of AIMIM in Andhra Assembly. Taking over the presidentship of the party from his father, stepping down from his Lok Sabha seat for his eldest son and making his second son as leader of legislative party in Andhra Pradesh Assembly, the respective three generations of Owaisis have not only converted the AIMIM into a family trust but have also kept the Muslims of Hyderabad under siege. It is a fact that Owaisis have established some educational institutions for the benefit of the Muslim society of Hyderabad but its communal politics on which it is thriving has done more harm to the Muslims.

How does one deal with Owaisi types? What is the remedy? The Remedy lies with the Muslims of Andhra Pradesh themselves. If they want to live a peaceful and dignified life they will have to guard themselves from fundamentalists among them under the patronage of the parties, which are still obsessed to the pre-Independence mindset of All India Muslim League, Nizam of Hyderabad and Razvi, the leader of Razakars, who were opposed to integration of Hyderabad with Indian Union.

How to Elect your Leader?

2009-02-18T03:33:00.000-08:00
By HNN Bureau

Elections provide the most opportune moments to express our preferences for socio-economic and other policies pursued by the political parties. Every time one comes around, we find a number of party workers soliciting our votes, and a little preparedness on our part can help. These questions can help us examine our preferences privately, and to engage others in discussions about the answers. Please feel free to submit your questions by writing editor@hyderabadnews.net; we will maintain this page in perpetuity for use in all future elections.

Before you cast your ballot ...
Questions for the party poll worker at your door.

An elected leader
Who is the head of your political organization?
How did s/he get to that post?
Were internal elections held to appoint him/her?

Second string
Who are the other leaders of your political party?
How well educated are they? How many have college degrees?
If elected, who will occupy the major portfolios - finance, home, human resources, education, law, and energy?

Ideological integrity
What is the distinguishing characteristic of your party?
Which parties are clearly different from yours?
Do you have any pre-poll alliances? What is the basis for such alliances? Do the alliance partners share your economic and social ideologies? Give me some examples.

Financial background and integrity
What do you (the candidate) do for a living?
Do you file tax returns regularly, and are you willing to make these records public?
Do you promise to declare your and your immediate family's assets periodically if elected?

Representing constituents
Are any candidates in your party contesting from more than one constituency? If yes, why? If elected from both, which one will s/he forfeit?

Transparent Government
What is your party's position on secrecy of public information?
Will infrastructure agreements be made public at the time they are signed?
Will the costs of acquisition and sale of land by the government be kept public?

We will add questions regularly; please email your questions to us at editor@hyderabadnews.net

Candidate Questionnaire: The leader
Understanding the heads of political parties at the time of elections

These questions may help you understand how the leaders of individual parties have attained their current positions. Check the table to the right, for more questions covering a range of issues relevant to making electoral choices.

- Who is the head of your political organization?
- How did s/he get to that post?
- Were internal elections held to appoint him/her?
- If yes, when were these elections last held?
- Where were they held?
- Who was eligible to vote?
- Could party members in distant towns and cities vote?
- Was this a direct vote by the members themselves, or was this a represented vote?
- How periodically are elections scheduled to be held?
- Have you always adhered to this schedule?
- Who won the last three elections to the post of party president?
- If they were not held, why not?

Candidate questionnaire: Second string
Election questions about prominent party members

These questions will help you learn the identities of other prominent persons in political parties besides the leader, and how power is shared amongst various people at the top.

- Who are the other leaders of your political party?
- How well educated are they? How many have college degrees?
- If elected, who will occupy the major portfolios - finance, home, human resources, education, law, and energy?
- Which constituencies are these leaders contesting from?
- Do they live in those constituencies, and if not, why are they contesting from there?
- Have any of these party leaders previously held positions in government?

Candidate questionnaire: Ideology
What do you believe, whose beliefs do you share or reject?

These questions will help you understand the ideology behind which the party is organized and how consistent this thought is.

- What is the distinguishing ideology of your party?

- Which parties are clearly different from yours?

- Do you have any pre-poll alliances? What is the basis for such alliances? Do the alliance partners share your economic and social ideologies? Give me some examples.

- What is your opinion on post-election coalitions? Is your party sufficeintly strong to come to power by itself, or are you supporting other political parties? In what sense are the coalition partners similar to you?

- Is your political party an off-shoot of a different one? If yes, what was the ideological reason for the split, and in what important ways does this faction differ from the rest?

- Have you, in the past, opposed any political party which you are now supporting? If yes, what has changed?

- Have you, in the past, switched political afffiliation after an election, i.e., moved to a party after being elected on as the candidate of another?

Candidate questionnaire: Finances
Ensuring accountable and assured management of public funds

These questions will help you understand the party's commitment to financial probity.

- What do you (the candidate) do for a living?

- Do you file tax returns regularly, and are you willing to make these records public?

- Do you promise to declare your and your immediate family's assets periodically if elected?

- Is there any conflict of interest between your business and the welfare of your constituents? [eg. a mill owner in a labour costituency, or a landlord in a farmer constoituency]. If so how do you propose to resolve this?

- Do you think other representatives from your political party should make their financial records public before the elections, and regularly thereafter if elected?

Candidate questionnaire: The local interest
Representing the constituents, not the leadership of parties.

These questions will help you understand how committed the local representatives are to the interests of their particular constituency, and whether they are able to represent you independent of their loyalty to party members and leaders from elsewhere.

- Are any candidates in your party contesting from more than one constituency? If yes, why? If elected from both, which one will s/he forfeit?

- Does your party allow elected representatives to vote according to their own preferences in the assembly/parliament, or are they required to vote as instructed by the leadership?

- Does your party use a whip to regulate votes in the assemblies? [A whip is a party functionary who passes the word on how the party members are expected to vote].

Candidate questionnaire: An open government
Transparent functioning by elected representatives and administrators.

These questions will help you understand the extent to which the party is willing to make decisions publicly, and provide you with information as to how and why the decisions are taken.

- What is your party's position on secrecy of public information?

- Will infrastructure agreements be made public at the time they are signed?

- Will the costs of acquisition and sale of land by the government be kept public?

- Will your party support a Freedom of Information Bill that includes whistle-blower protection? [ A whistle-blower is someone working for the government who reveals corruption inside it, and is often punished by the government as a consequence ].

- Will you enact legislation ro ensure AUTOMATIC cancellation of projects that use public money when the money is not used for the publicly stated intention?

We will add questions regularly; please email your questions to us at editor@hyderabadnews.net

INDIAN ELECTIONS 2009

2009-02-18T01:34:00.000-08:00
India is a largest democracy in the world in term of voters participation, election is an ongoing process in a nation, where democracy rules right from village/ municipal level to selection of states and federal governments.

The vastness in its geography, forces elections administrators to conduct polls in phase’s manners to ensure complete and fair elections.

This makes election an ongoing process in this ancient society, where democracy existed even in pre historic era as Panchayat and recognition of “Panch Parmeshwar” tradition in Indian society.

HNN brings In-depth, unbiased and direct from spots, news and researched based information of Indian elelctions to you in this section.

We have decided to dedicate the a complete section to Indian elections, as HNN is receiving multi queries from our readers and users on Indian democracy and particularly about multi levels democratic elections and their results.

Please feel free to share your views on our news and information on Indian elelction.

Write to me anything on Indian Elections 2009 - editor@hyderabadnews.net or newscop@gmail.com

Malkajgiri Constituency Map

2009-02-17T22:52:00.000-08:00

EC bans exit, opinion poll till voting comes to a close

2009-02-17T22:51:00.000-08:00
By Sudha Raman

The Election Commission on Tuesday banned dissemination of results of opinion and exit polls during the 48-hour period till the polling ends in case of single-phase election. It also banned exit polls till the last lap in the event of multi-phase elections.

The EC’s move comes against the backdrop of the Supreme Court leaving it to the discretion of the commission to decide on laying down guidelines on opinion and exit polls till the government frames regulations on the issue.

The commission had a couple of years ago banned the telecast, publication or broadcast of exit polls during polls till the final phase of voting but media houses approached the apex court after which the order was revoked.

The commission had asked the court to decide whether there should be a reasonable restriction in publication and dissemination of results of opinion polls and exit polls during certain specified periods during the election process.

The government had in October last decided to amend the Representation of the People Act, 1951, to curb publication of exit polls during elections till the conclusion of the final phase so that it does not “influence” voters. The government’s move to amend the RPA is seen as an effort to ensure polls, which are generally spread over several phases, are free and fair.

“No result of any opinion or exit poll conducted at any time shall be published, publicized or disseminated in any manner by print, electronic or any other media at any time during the period of 48 hours ending with the hour fixed for closing of poll in an electioin held in a single phase,” the EC said.

“In a multi-phased election and in the case of elections in different states announced simultaneously,” the EC barred dissemination of opinion and exit polls by the media “at any time during the period starting from 48 hours before the hour fixed for closing of poll in the first phase of the election and till the poll is concluded in all the phases in all states”, the guidelines said.

Medchal Constituency Map

2009-02-17T22:48:00.000-08:00

Greater Hyderabad Election Map

2009-02-17T22:44:00.000-08:00

Democracy, Elections And Minorities In India

2009-02-16T22:21:00.000-08:00
By M H Ahssan

The General elections in India are about to take place within three months and all political parties are readying themselves to draw up their winning strategies. Elections are like a day of judgment for political parties. And, they have to stand before their voters and render account of their deeds and misdeeds. They have begun to woo their voters once in five years again. They have to woo different castes and religious groups and reconcile their conflicting interests in the context of the complex Indian reality.

The Muslims constitute 15 per cent of Indian population and play crucial role in the victory or defeat of the political parties. In the two big northern states of the U.P. and Bihar no political party can win without Muslim support. The Congress once used to win both these states without much problem as the Muslims voted for it for four decades after the independence. However, it lost both the states as the Muslims withdrew their support. The U.P. was lost as soon as Rajiv Gandhi laid foundation stone of Ram Mandir in Ayodhya after instructing the district magistrate to open the lock of the Babri Masjid for the Hindus to worship Ram. The Congress has not been able to rehabilitate itself again in the eyes of the Muslims.

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) once rode to power in the U.P. on the ‘wave of Ram Mandir’ but such waves cannot be generated again and hence the BJP has met, with its speed breaker. During those hey days it even said, ‘we do not need Muslim votes’, but it set up its own minority front, promising heaven to them, through some Muslim members like Shah Nawaz and others. It is also projecting Naqvi as its spokesman.

But the BJP does not want to give up its mool mantra (basic formula) of Ram Mandir to woo hard core Hindu votes. Mr.Rajnath Singh, its President, said that it would construct Ram Mandir if it came to power and even would persuade its National Democratic Alliance (NDA) allies to agree to pass a law for constructing the mandir. Even Advani asked what was wrong in constructing a mandir. Once they demolished Babri Masjid and committed one wrong; then what is the harm in committing second wrong by constructing mandir on the site of Babri Masjid?

The election calculus shows that the BJP would find it extremely difficult to increase its present tally in Parliament. ‘The Terror Card’ did not pay even immediately after the Mumbai attacks in November; and the BJP lost the election in Delhi. Thus ‘terror card’ no longer arouses emotions to be electorally exploited. The BJP had found one more card when prices began to rise, but as its ill luck would have it, the rise in index fell to and has almost stabilized at below 6%. And raising ‘Ram issue’ is flogging a dead horse.

Thus whatever its electoral acrobatics the BJP will find it very difficult to increase its tally of seats won over the last general election in 2004. Moreover, what the lumpen elements of the Sangh Parivar have done in Orissa and Karnataka will hardly help its image. Those who sympathize otherwise with the BJP will also find it difficult to defend its violent attacks on Christians and women. There was a time when some Christian leaders had begun to join the BJP, but after the Orissa events even leaders like Fernandes will be hard pressed to defend the BJP. The BJP has thus increased its opponents.

There is tough competition between Ms. Mayavati the present Chief Minister and Mr. Mulayam Singh Yadav, the leader of the Samajwadi Party in the U.P. for the Muslim votes. Ms.Mayavati, in order to win over the Muslims, has promised 25 per cent tickets for the Lok Sabha elections for the Muslims. It is, no doubt, for the first time any party has taken such a step. The Muslims of the U.P. should welcome it and the Congress has a lesson to learn from it. It is a known fact that the Congress has never done justice to the Muslims in this respect.

However, while welcoming the Mayavati’s step, the real question is: how many seats to which Muslims will be given the tickets, will be winnable ones and what her party will do to see the Muslim candidates win? Also, what will be the stature of those Muslim candidates? These are important questions. It is difficult to expect Ms.Mayavati to give ticket to those who have some stature of their own and are independent by nature.

Mr. Mulayam Singh Yadav has entered into a friendship pact with Mr.Kalyan Singh who has the notoriety of overseeing the demolition of the Babri Masjid on December 6, 1992 as he was then the Chief Minister and had taken pride for his misdeed. Muslims have hardly forgotten this. Mr.Mulayam Singh claims that he has done so to wipe out the BJP from the U.P. But this strategy is likely to misfire or backfire as far as Muslims are concerned.

Let not Mulayam forget the fate of the Congress in the U.P. after it laid the foundation stone of the Ram Mandir in Ayodhya. Mulayam made Kalyan almost to apologize for the demolition of the Babri Masjid under pressure from the Muslims, but the way Mulayam is expressed his solidarity with Kalyan may backfire. The Congress has also expressed its displeasure for this newfound solidarity of the SP leader with Mr.Kalyan Singh, but that only has provoked the Mr.Mulayam Singh to ask the Congress to mind its own business, and he even said that he and Mr.Kalyan Singh are farmers and, what is more pehelwans (wrestlers)! It is surprising, even enigmatic, that a shrewd politician like Mulayam was making such statements!

The way Muslims are reacting to the alliance with the Kalyan Singh apparently shows it would be hardly politically wise for Mulayam to shake hands with Kalyan, if he is interested in Muslim votes in the U.P. After all he may not have the last laugh in this complex game of politics and electoral arithmetic. Mayawati may have the last laugh, after all. If the Muslims of the U.P. vote for Ms.Mayawati, both the BJP and the Congress may not gain much in the U.P. The Congress may, perhaps, gain marginally but the BJP may not benefit even that.

In Bihar the BJP has no independent base at all. It is beholden to Nitish Kumar the present Chief Minister of Bihar is unhappy that the BJP is creating problems for him by raising Ram issue again. Nitish Kumar is Bhumihar. Yadavs are not his electoral base. He also got two Muslims working for the OBC Muslim cause nominated to the Rajya Sabha. However, that may not mean much electorally in complex caste politics of Bihar Muslims.

However, it appears Nitish too does not have brighter chance and may not be able to improve his tally of seats won over 2004 elections. He has failed to deliver his promises and the Koshi flood disaster may prove a millstone a round his neck. The BJP may not be able to reap much depending on Mr. Nitish Kumar, who is the only support for the BJP in Bihar.

It will be seen from above that Muslim votes, like other non-Muslim votes, are now determined by regional politics. For quite sometime past Muslims have been voting for the regional parties, and the Congress has only some regions like Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh etc. where the only alternative happens to be the Congress. It is a healthy development that the Muslims are less swayed by emotional issues and now realized that it would be a political disaster. But, for that matter, even, some Hindus, at one time, were swayed by the Ram Mandir issue, and the OBCs (Other Backward Classes) by Mandal Commission issue; and these two issues brought some crucial change in Indian politics and both issues were highly emotional in nature.
As the Muslims have now come out of that emotional phase they should do bargain hard with regional parties, and the aim should be: (1) to isolate and defeat communal forces and (2) to extract promises of implementation of economic and educational benefits along with proper share in political power for Muslims. For this they must shun emotional rhetoric altogether and have to be hard bargainers.

It is important to note that since the Muslims began to vote for regional outfits in the U.P. and Bihar, the epicenter of communal violence has shifted to Maharashtra, and Maharashtra has emerged with the dubious distinction of a state with highest communal incidents in the last few years. The government’s own statistics show this. The media have also reported these statistics. There are other dilemmas too for the Muslims in Maharashtra.

These incidents have taken place during the Congress regime, especially during the chief ministership of Mr. Vilasrao Deshmukh. Mr.R.R.Patil of the Nationalist Congress party also failed to handle the communal riots properly. At Dhule is its worst example. But again only alternative to the Congress in Maharashtra is the Shiv Sena-BJP alliance which Muslims cannot opt for. There is no other regional party here like the U.P., Bihar etc.

It is indeed very challenging situation for Muslims in Maharashtra. Again separate political party of Muslims is no solution. It is a remedy worse than the disease. Besides voting for clean secular candidates in whichever constituencies available, the Muslims should go for frank dialogue with the present Congress leaders, preferably at the Central level. Regional leadership often colludes with the Shiv Sena and is under the awe of Mr.Bal Thackeray. Even Mr.Sharad Pawar, Mr.Bhujbal and other Congress leaders meet him, touch his feet and have dinner with him.

In democracy, only hard bargain pays, nothing else. Our elections are based purely on caste and religious identities, nothing else. The weight of minorities must be felt by the political parties.

Advani smells victory for BJP

2009-02-16T00:19:00.001-08:00
By Kajol Singh

BJP's prime ministerial candidate L.K. Advani smelt victory for his party in the forthcoming Lok Sabha polls and said the mood of the people indicated that they have already decided to vote for a change.

Advani, who began his journey on Sunday to conquer Delhi, was in a belligerent mood. Addressing a huge 'Rastra Raksha Rally' full of enthusiastic audience at Maharana Pratap Inter-College ground, just five kilometre from the powerful Baba Gorakhnath Peeth in Gorakhpur, the heart of rugged Poorvanchal, the former Deputy Prime Minister said the plight of 'Aam Admi' has increased under the UPA that has been shedding tears for 'Aam Admi'.

Earlier, addressing the rally party national president Rajnath Singh declared that the party never drifted away from its ideology, political philosophy and agenda. Construction of a magnificent temple at Ayodhya continued to be in the party's priority list. Only a week ago Rajnath Singh during the Nagpur conclave had announced that the party would return to Ayodhya as an emotional election issue and promised a grand temple would be built at Ayodhya

The show that marked the beginning of Advani's campaign for Delhi was organised by Hindutava poster-boy Yogi Adityanath, the sitting MP who has been trying to shift the focus from Ayodhya to Gorakhpur. He did it finally.

Advani said it pains to see how ineffective the present UPA Prime Minister Manmohan Singh is. Of all the Prime Ministers since Jawaharlal Nehru he was the weakest Prime Minister. This is the government of Sonia Gandhi, not of Manmohan Singh, he said. Advani asked why kisans (farmers) commit suicide in the non-BJP ruled states.

He also ripped apart the 'propaganda' to project Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi as anti-Muslim. This, he said, was the result of the disinformation and malicious campaign against Modi by the opponents. He said he wanted to inform Muslims, if they are present, that per capita income of Muslims in Gujarat was higher than those brethrens who lived in other states.

He promised if BJP was voted to power it would ensure 'Har haath Ko Kaam, Har Khet ko Pani'. The BJP government would usher the country into Information revolution as everyone get free Internet Connection.

Raising slogan like BJP jite ga to Bharat Jite ga' and if India wins, its ancient glory would be restored, he said despite economic blockade imposed by America and other European countries in the aftermath of the Nuclear Test, India had marched ahead on economic and other fronts.

BJP general secretary Arun Jaitely, Incharge of UP affairs, said UP needed a moral and cultural revolution. Samajvadi Party and BSP are not only regional outfits but these parties are led by the leaders who are facing corruption cases.

The rally in Gorakhpur and its timing were significant. The party desperate to make an impact in the coming Lok Sabha polls and conquer Indraprasth has in the process created a larger than life image of Yogi Adityanath, the controversial saffron leader in the Eastern region, which was once the birthplace of political Mafia gangs. Two years ago Yogi Adityanath was arrested and jailed on the charges of inciting communal violence.

Baba Gorakhnath Math in Gorakhpur is a highly revered religious institution with huge following in India and Nepal.

Yogi and the BJP had been at war occasionally in a bid to prove supremacy and it had reached a new high when in 2002 Assembly elections he not only set up his own candidates against the official nominees but also ensured their victory. Against when Yogi had raised his banners of revolt on the eve of 2007 polls Venkiah Naidu and Gopinath Munde had to rush to Gorakhpur to tame him.

As Yogi established himself as a force to reckon with, the leadership chose Gorakhpur to begin Advani's journey to prime ministership.

Spat within EC: Was it really bias?

2009-02-15T21:58:00.000-08:00
By Jayanti Natarajan

The Election Commission has been, until very recently, one of the heroes of Indian democracy. From the mountains of Himachal to the Kashmir Valley, from the Northeast to the Andamans, our elections have been somewhat of a miracle in modern democratic history. They have been by and large free and fair. Although in the subcontinent, democracy has often been challenged, India has always prided itself on its robust democratic traditions. This is why the present controversy, which has arisen over the letter sent by Chief Election Commissioner (CEC) N. Gopalaswami to the President of India, is particularly unfortunate.

By throwing the EC into a bitter and unpleasant debate, the CEC has virtually delivered a body blow to the credibility and authority of the EC. That he should have chosen to do this barely two months before his own retirement, and just before general elections, has complicated the issue, which may well have adverse constitutional implications. Regardless of what apologists for the CEC may say, his action, its legal implications and his timing, are indefensible.

Article 324 lies at the crux of the matter and the issue is whether the CEC has the constitutional power to recommend suo motu the removal of an election commissioner or a regional commissioner. And if the CEC does make such a recommendation, will it be binding upon the President? Two major cases where the Supreme Court has had occasion to deal with similar, although not identical issues, were in S.S. Dhanoa’s case and in T.N. Seshan’s case.

The constitutional position is clear. The CEC cannot be removed from office except by impeachment, but the election commissioners do not enjoy identical protection. However, it has been settled by the Supreme Court that in order to insulate the EC from political interference, any decision to remove them can only be done after the recommendation of the CEC. To quote Kapil Sibal, this provision is, therefore, meant to be a shield to protect the election commissioners and by no means a sword in the hands of the CEC to be used at whim to “oppress” his fellow election commissioners. (The word oppression in this context was used by the Supreme Court in Mr Seshan’s case while referring to the possibility of misuse of his recommendatory powers by a CEC.)

Only the appointing authority, namely the President, acting upon the advice of the Cabinet, has the power to remove an election commissioner after obtaining the recommendation of the CEC. It would be perverse to argue that the President will appoint an election commissioner but the CEC will have suo moto power to remove him.
The BJP is well known as an “institution destroyer”. Few would have forgotten the personal and malignant attack the BJP launched upon CEC Lyngdoh, even bringing communal colour to the attack. Whereas the Indian National Congress has always shown admirable restraint, and observed great reticence when articulating views about constitutional functionaries. This was in keeping with the policy of our leadership that institutions should be preserved at all costs.

In this particular case, the CEC has not just charged his colleague but has also claimed that he showed a distinct bias to the Congress. It would be important to point out at this time that the letter of charges against Navin Chawla, sent to the President by the CEC — although meant to be a classified document, but BJP leaders are quoting from — is mainly a litany of instances of Mr Chawla’s alleged partisanship in favour of the Congress and not any offence of moral turpitude or palpable unconstitutional action. The CEC’s charges are all his own presumptions of a perceived bias he thinks Mr Chawla has in favour of the Congress, which an unbiased bystander may well interpret to be an honest difference of opinion.
On the other hand, some others may justifiably question the actions of the CEC himself, as being in favour of the BJP, whose leader he served under as home secretary. It was, indeed, the NDA led by the BJP which also appointed Mr Gopalaswami as the CEC. There are many questions raised over how the CEC called for Assembly elections in Himachal Pradesh four months before the tenure of the previous Assembly ended without so much as informing, leave alone consulting, the governor or the government.

Was it to favour the BJP? Eyebrows were raised over his haste and insistence on calling elections in Karnataka, before electoral rolls were finalised and before the delimitation exercise was carried out, as a result of which President’s Rule had to be extended. Was this too to favour the BJP? What about the infamous venomous communal CDs which were distributed during the UP Assembly elections in 2007 by the BJP? An FIR was filed against Rajnath Singh, the state president, and office bearers of the BJP, and the EC took suo moto cognizance of the distribution of objectionable CDs.

Charge sheets were filed, but the CEC closed the case thereafter. Was it bias in favour of the BJP? If so, the question which must be answered is how bias in the case of Mr Chawla becomes objective and unbiased if done by the CEC? The BJP should realise that the reticence of the Congress is due to its desire to preserve institutions and not that the questions surrounding certain acts of the CEC have gone unnoticed.

Above all, the CEC owes the country an explanation as to why he has destroyed the credibility of the EC from within. His statement that he was waiting in order to avoid the charge of bias before the Karnataka elections reinforces doubts regarding his bias in favour of the BJP, apart from being utterly unconvincing in legal and constitutional dimensions. The debate is now public, and very bitter. Once again it will be the inherent strength of our democracy and the maturity of our electorate that will find a way out of this morass.

India's vote-seekers blaze new trails

2009-02-12T02:59:00.000-08:00
By Neeta Lal

With national elections barely 10 weeks away, India's leading political parties have sounded the war cry by unleashing a torrent of megawatt publicity blitzkriegs in an effort to lure voters. And in a marked departure from the past - when modest budgets, tacky public relations exercises and hurriedly floated ad campaigns were de rigueur - this time it is sophistication and mega budgets all the way.

From hiring blue-chip advertising agencies to mounting clever campaigns to leveraging multifarious media - print, TV and the Internet - for promotions, India's political parties are pulling out all the stops to ensure favorable poll results. Advertisement gurus opine that the industry will see a 25% to 30% jump in ad spending by the state and central governments this year. More so because unlike in the past, political ad campaigns will not be limited to the election season but will form a vital connect between politicians and the electorate by keeping them engaged in the long term.

"Because it's a very crucial election, no political party wants to leave any stone unturned to emerge victorious," said political scientist Dr Ramesh Naik. No expense is being spared either to address a wide swathe of voters. The Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) alliance, for instance, has a US$30 million budget for its publicity campaign, having already unveiled a $40 million "Bharat Nirman" pre-election campaign last year showcasing its achievements in its five-year rule since 2004. At the start of 2009, Congress spent $1 million to tout its multi-million dollar farm-loan waiver scheme.

The right-wing opposition Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) isn't lagging too far behind in the publicity sweepstakes either. It has fleshed out a $70 million drive to highlight its "achievements" and position its prime ministerial candidate - 81-year-old Lal Krishna Advani - as a cult figure. The BJP is projecting Advani as a "messiah of change" a la US President Barack Obama by marketing him as a leader who will "lift India's economic spirits".

Taking a leaf out of Obama's book, Advani's election campaign aims to establish a direct connect with people through popular social networking sites with text, audio and video clips. Online communities, fan clubs and discussion forums are all being created at breakneck speed to convince voters.

Last month, Advani launched two blogs in the space of three days to engage with Indian youth, who make up two-thirds of the country's 1.1 billion people. In fact, an enthusiastic Advani has even launched a separate website for his colleague, V K Malhotra, the BJP's candidate for chief minister in the Delhi assembly election. Incidentally, Malhotra was trounced by Congress candidate Sheila Dixit, who snatched victory for the third time to be crowned New Delhi's chief minister. Undeterred, Malhotra is going ahead with a makeover on social networking websites Facebook and Orkut to open a "new channel of communication with voters".

Ostensibly, the BJP wants to demonstrate to India's youth that the party and its alliance are in "tune with their aspirations and expectations". Not only that, to target India's sizable constituency of Internet users, Advani's team is also hard-selling the senior politico on 2,000 websites, including those of prestigious foreign media like London's Guardian, The New York Times and surprisingly even a raft of Pakistani newspapers and online sites.

These media were selected carefully after extensive research and the BJP is taking no chances this time. In 2004, the party splurged on a whopping $20 million “India Shining” ad campaign which failed miserably. The BJP lost both face and elections that year. Since then, "India Shining" has become a classic example of how not to run a mass-based political campaign.

This time, however, the political ambitions of an emboldened BJP are being fueled by the exponential growth of multiple media outlets, including print, TV, radio, Internet and social networking sites, which it hopes will carry its message better to the electorate. And indeed it just might as India currently boasts some 300-odd TV channels and over 200 newspapers, and hosts the fourth-largest Internet-using population in the world, which is expected to ratchet up to 120 million users this year. All these channels of communication are obviously a great way for the political parties to influence millions of voters.

"So much choice for publicity, however, is a sword that cuts both ways," cautions a Delhi-based political columnist. "While it enables parties to access all constituencies - young, old, urban, rural - it also adds to their expense and labor. But because this is a crucial election, the political parties will not stop at anything."

Indeed they won't. Both the BJP and Congress are not only tapping all types of media to convey their message, they are also hiring the country's top ad agencies to execute their political campaigns. Last month, Congress welcomed aboard not one but two blue-chip ad agencies - JWT Delhi and Crayons - to handle its pan-India account. Both agencies will work in synergy on a campaign strategy to project Congress' achievements. The BJP top brass is similarly culling the best agencies from the raft that made presentations to them, such as Grey Worldwide, Euro RSCG, Lowe Lintas and McCann Erickson.

"There's a vital need to hire more than one agency because all political parties will be using different mediums of communication for which the expertise of different agencies will be required," said a Congress party worker.

While political parties often hire advertising agencies to create election campaigns for them, specialized agencies are hired to take their campaign into the digital or new media space beyond websites - a new trend in these elections. The idea, said Prateek Kartik, an advertising manager with a multinational corporation, is to leverage the Internet and online medium for campaign promotions.

It is a commendable medium, said Kartik, as it allows a user to do an array of things like blog, comment and debate on sociopolitical topics. "Video ads on sites such as Yahoo, Rediff and MSN also help beam various parties' messages across. Plus, popular social networking sites such as YouTube and Facebook are running a social marketing optimization campaign which allows a one-on-one channel with the voter which is very effective."

For the Congress government, its "Bharat Nirman" campaign will underscore its achievements, while the BJP will have terrorism, inflation, infrastructure and employment as its four campaign planks. Overall, the BJP's campaign strategy will push for "change". While the party's focus will be entirely on Advani, the successes of regional leaders like Narendra Modi and Raman Singh will also be highlighted, said insiders.

Congress, meanwhile, is playing up the coalition UPA chairperson Sonia Gandhi, 62, and her son Rahul Gandhi, 38, as agents of "change and development".

While Indian political parties may not yet be able to match Obama's ad spending of $60 million to run over 100,000 political TV ads, they are getting there. And fast and it looks like it won't be long before Indian political parties too will be able to make such gargantuan investments in their campaigns.

In the meantime, as long as these mega budget and multimedia campaigns help connect the electorate with their political leaders by engaging them both in meaningful debate and dialogue, few see any harm in such endeavors.

India 2009 Elections - Information

2009-02-11T02:54:00.000-08:00
The 15th Lok Sabha Election of India is scheduled to be held by the month of May 2009. The maximum strength of Lok Sabha or the lower house of the Indian Parliament is 552, comprising 530 members who represent the States, up to 20 members who stand for the Union Territories and not more than 2 members from the Anglo-Indian Community who are nominated by the President.

The India Election 2009 will be contested on new constituency boundaries for the first time in over 30 years and the change was implemented on the findings of the Delimitation Commission.

Some of the major changes include merging of areas of various constituencies to eradicate population inconsistencies between different seats and reservation and de-reservation of seats. But, for the time being, the Government of India has postponed delimitation in the states of Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Jharkhand, Manipur and Nagaland.

The National Democratic Alliance comprising the BJP and its allies officially elected L. K. Advani as their candidate for Prime Ministership for general election 2009 on January 23rd, 2008.

The Indian National Congress (INC) and its allies though haven�t officially announced their candidate for Prime Ministership for India Election 2009; one speculation is Rahul Gandhi, the son of the late Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi and UPA Chairperson Sonia Gandhi.

Apart from them, the other political parties haven't yet officially announced their Prime Ministerial candidates for the 2009 India election.

India Elections 2009: performances and opportunities

2009-02-11T02:48:00.000-08:00
By Najeeb Khan

General elections are scheduled in April-May 2009 and these elections will decide the fate of political leaders, parties, government and the country. Results of assembly elections held recently have created the confusion instead of showing clear indications that who will be at the helm of affairs. Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan are two large states and results have demonstrated a fragmented verdict. Madhya Pradesh re-elected the ruling BJP Government whereas Rajasthan people voted for Congress (incumancy factor).

Although Congress succeded in forming government in Rajasthan but this party failed to clean sweap the state. In Madhya Pradesh, BJP maitained a big margin. Congress recaptured Delhi state ignoring any incumbancy effect. Likewise, BJP got re-elected in Chhattisgarh and congress failed to increase its influence in the state. Congress got majority in Mhizorum and succeeded in spreading its influence in north east.

Its true that issues are different for people in state and central elections but few issues affects both. We'll discuss these issues and their impacts on election prospects of different political parties:

1. Inflation: Price rise affects common men and it has been observed in past elections how the ruling parties lost the elections when they failed to control the escalating prices. Important factor in this regard is the efforts made by the ruling party to control it. State government generally blame price rise for the wrong economic policies of the Central Government. However, they can not escape from their responsibilities. State Govt. can atleast help to lower prices of few commodities by lowering the taxes.UPA government is trying hard to keep inflation under control and has been successful in its efforts by adopting different measures. Luck is also in its favour as the fuel prices in International market has dipped to $35 per barrel from $ 146. Fuel prices have their influence on prices of other commodities as transportation costs also increase with increasing fuel prices.

2. Fuel prices: Govt. has increased prices of petroleum and diesels several times in the past. However, it delays declaration of reduction in fuel prices to give advantage to oil companies of private and public sectors. Prices of crude oil have come down from $145 per barrel to $ 35 per barrel and govt. has once reduced prices of petroleum before declaration of state assembly election by Rs 5 per litre. It is assumed that Govt. is planning to reduce again these prices by Rs 5 on petrol. Rs 2.50 on diesel and Rs 25 on LPG cylinders to make housewives happy. It will be done before the parliament election. This shows that govt. is less concerned with people but more with the vote of the people. During NDA govt. regime, petroleum prices were immediately reduced depending on the prices in the international market. One can understand the difference of attitude between two government.

3. Terrorism: Indian people are bearing the burnt of this menace. Not only terrorism from outside but also from internal activists like naxalites. Neither UPA government nor state government supported by UPA are much concerned with Naxalite problem. They have left people to their own fate. No concrete step has been taken by UPA or its supported governments in the states.

4. Secularism: Most of the political parties that does not believe in good governance, always like to play this truimph card to sue the voters of a particular religion. However, these political parties and government have never made effort to improve the economical condition by making any real efforts to do so. Government has presumed that minorities will vote them if they just criticize the political parties who favors majority population.People are fed up of politicians who only raises issues related to minorities and issues that are not related to their social upliftment but only of minor importance like put a ban on a book that hurts feeling of a section or sending back Taslima Nasreen etc. etc.

5. Service sectors: The only commedable task that is a plus point of ruling party is to make Central Govt. employees happy by improving their service conditions and giving them a good pay hike. However, if one critically examine this aspect, gainers of this pay package are highly placed officials. Otherwise, these hikes just neutralizes the inflation and do nothing more. Teaching community is feeling unhappy as per reports. Government has failed to take any steps for improvement in education at any level.

One step taken by this government to make them happy need mention here and government needs appreciation for it. UPA government has made some reforms in income tax structure and government servants are happy with it.

8. Law and Order front: Performance of present UPA government has been dismal on law and order front. Even people don't feel safe in the capital as incidences of looting, murder, rapes are heard on daily basis.

9. Growth and Government expenditure: Government has been successful in improving growth rate though it will not be justified to give full credit to present government alone. Whatever growth increase is illustrated, this is result of not fully but partially to NDA government whose policy decisions have started paying dividends. Elimination of licences for several services has resulted in fast expansion of telecom services and reduces prices of different gadgets etc. Expension of internet is due to efforts of past government and continuation of the same policies by present government.

Based on the above analysis, it can be concluded that working of the present government has been just at par to past (NDA) government. Though this government committed blunder of withdrawal of tough law measures like POTA just to appease the minorities and that has backfired, this government has done commendable job to take country ahead on economic front. Performance of this government is as good as of the NDA government. Both the government have been on similar track and deserves their share of votes. This will ultimately facilitate way for a government that will need help of small regional parties for formation of next government.

Result: Neither Congress nor BJP would be able to get majority in next elections (May 2009) and chances are more for a hung parliament where politicians of criminal background will help one of the parties in formation of next government and will utilize power to attain their own goals.

However, awareness among people has grown at a very rapid pace and after few elections, opportunists in politics have to reconsider about their fate.

Opinion: Hunger for power discredits politicians

2009-02-10T23:40:00.000-08:00
By P C Alexander

Political parties and politicians have never been so discredited in the eyes of India’s common people as they have been in recent months. The intensity of criticism has taken the politicians by surprise and they have been trying to pass on the blame to others, like the media, rather than looking for reasons within.

Let us examine the role of three leading politicians — Mr Kalyan Singh of the Bharatiya Janata Party, Mr Narayan Rane of the Shiv Sena and Mr K. Karunakaran of the Congress — to assess the extent to which the top leaders themselves have been responsible for destroying the credibility of politicians and political parties. All three have been chief ministers in their respective states and held this and other high offices only because of the unstinted support of their parties. However, neither had any compunction in rebelling against their own party when they found that their parties may not satisfy their personal ambitions for power.

Mr Kalyan Singh, through his vituperative attacks on the Muslim community in the past, had created a trademark of his own for intolerance and acquired the image of an uncompromising advocate of extremist Hindutva. The role attributed to him in preventing the intervention of police to protect the Babri Masjid from demolition in December 1992 is a matter still before the court and, therefore, cannot be discussed here in detail. Suffice to say that even he would feel embarrassed and unhappy to listen to some of his old speeches on this subject. Also, look at the strident allegation he has been levelling against the BJP of which he was, till the other day, a top leader. He has now stated that his next agenda is the demolition of the BJP. In order to convince the minority community that he has indeed renounced his anti-Muslim stand, he has expressed remorse and apologised for the demolition of the Babri Masjid, though it took him full 17 years to do so. Most people may be more amused than convinced by such political somersaults. Till a few days ago he had been the vice-president of the BJP and their candidate in Uttar Pradesh for the Lok Sabha elections. Now he has suddenly owned moral responsibility for the demolition of the Babri Masjid and vowed to demolish the BJP next. Whatever may be the weight people may attach to his confessions on the demolition of Babri Masjid, one thing is certain: he has eminently succeeded in deepening the distrust and contempt for political parties and politicians among the common people.

Mr Narayan Rane rose in Shiv Sena to the very top and became the chief minister of Maharashtra after Manohar Joshi moved to Delhi to take charge as the Speaker of Lok Sabha. After elections to the state Assembly, a Congress-NCP coalition government got a clear majority in the legislature and Mr Rane, realising that there may be greater scope for him in the Congress for coming to power again, migrated to the Congress of which he was a virulent critic till then. Most people in the state were surprised at this move and also at the ease with which he could become revenue minister as a member of the Congress party.

The surprise was greater when he boldly staked his claim for the chief minister’s post when, after the shocking incidents of 26/11 in Mumbai, Vilasrao Deshmukh had to resign. Mr Rane seemed to have been promised by some Congress leaders that he could be considered for the post of chief minister as and when a vacancy arose. However, Mr Ashok Chavan was the ultimate choice for chief minister’s post and Mr Rane felt betrayed. He issued statements, in highly intemperate language, about being denied the office which he claimed was his legitimate due. Eventually, Mr Rane realised the limitations for a newcomer to become Chief Minister so soon after joining the Congress. The party itself lost patience with him and suspended him. He seems to be now waiting for his rehabilitation in the party as a minister, but the whole episode has left a big dent on the prestige of the Congress party and also shaken the already-weakened respect the common people had for political leaders. Many people have also strongly criticised the Congress for keeping its doors open for anyone who chooses to join it, irrespective of ideological background and convictions, as long as he brings some MLAs and votes along.

Mr K. Karunakaran in Kerala is one of those who probably believe that the chief ministership of the state should always be held by him whenever the Congress party wins a majority in the state Assembly. Some Congress leaders in Delhi seem to have accepted this line and Mr Karunakaran has been escalating his demands for more and more concessions from the party for himself and those who have chosen to remain loyal to him.

At one stage Mr Karunakaran had formed a party of his own, the Democratic Indira Congress, but it proved to be a non-starter. Later, he tried to merge his party with the NCP, but the Congress party again rolled out the welcome carpet for him. He then staked his claim for a seat in the Rajya Sabha, in spite of his age (he is over 90). Now that the Rajya Sabha seat has been denied to him, we should wait and see what moves he may make or what other offers may be made by the party high command. The manner in which the Congress leadership handled Mr Karunakaran’s defiance of party decisions which did not suit him has weakened the party’s esteem among the people of the state.

From these three cases of rebellion by senior politicians, one fact emerges clearly: if political parties and politicians have lost a good deal of trust of the ordinary people, the reason for it lies with the senior politicians themselves. Political parties admitting persons who have been openly holding opposite political views and doctrines or have been guilty of gross indiscipline has exposed the scant respect which top politicians have for their party’s ideology and principles. When political ideologies get relegated, the leadership of such parties gets devalued and, in the process, the basic principles of parliamentary system get subverted.

Advani woos voters via Pak media

2009-02-10T22:01:00.000-08:00
By M H Ahssan

A Pakistani website is a rather unusual place to find an advertisement of BJP leader L K Advani campaigning for the forthcoming 2009 Lok Sabha polls. But there he is in Pakistan’s premier English newspaper, Lahore-based Dawn’s online edition, with his slogan: “Advani for PM.’’

The Dawn online advertisement isn’t an isolated example. The BJP is hard-selling the 81-year-old Advani all over the web. About 2,000 sites frequented by India’s net-users have been identified by BJP’s crack IT team. Several foreign media sites have been selected, including Washington Post, New York Times and UK’s Guardian online. Apart from the Dawn, Pakistan newspaper The Nation and website Paktribune also carry the ads.

These ads are not targeted at NRIs. It is a form of new-media target selling where only those logging in from India can view the promos. “Only if you go to any of these sites from India will you see the ad,” explains Prodyut Bora, BJP’s national convenor, IT. Bora declined to comment on the amount being spent on the online advertising initiative. He said that 99% of the sites identified are Indian.

The idea is innovative and interesting, says columnist and trend-spotter Santosh Desai but it’s essentially the same message in a new medium. “Sure it’s novel, but I’m not sure how effective it will be, in terms of numbers or even in terms of shaping and moulding opinion,” he says. “After all, what new will you learn about Advani?”

Using technology like never before, targeting an audience probably doesn’t get sharper than this. The audience defined for the ads, says Bora, is “internet-using voters of India’’. The websites were selected on the basis of online statistics of most-visited-sites accessed from India. The audience is across all strata, ages and occupations. Media sites form a small fraction of the entire campaign, Bora said.

“It’s a question of knowing where you can track voters,’’ says ad guru Piyush Pandey. “Although the number of people Advani is reaching out to via foreign websites may be minuscule, he’s talking to them in their language,’’ he says.

A nice idea, he concedes. Calling it a “supply-side idea”, Desai says following Obama’s successful net reach campaign, Indian politicos would also want to connect with the surfing, clicking, blogging India.

NEWS ANALYSIS: BJP hopes economic slump, terror will fuel its poll rath

2009-02-09T23:12:00.000-08:00
By M H Ahssan

As the best wound up the threeday national executive-cum-council at Nagpur, not very far from the RSS headquarters, the broad contours of its strategy for the forthcoming Lok Sabha elections started taking shape. The plank, as LK Advani said in his concluding speech at the national council meeting on Sunday, would revolve around the “positive agenda” of good governance, development and security, both internal and economic.

As the conclave drew to a close, it was also evident that, with the principle ruling party, the Congress, setting in motion the process of anointing Rahul Gandhi as the heir-apparent, dynastic politics and the BJP’s trackrecord as a “dependable and stable” ally would also form an integral part of this blueprint.

To pump up its core constituency, the BJP had to revert to its Hindutva agenda, with both Mr Advani and Rajnath Singh reiterating the party’s commitment to ensure the construction of the Ram temple at Ayodhya. As things stand, the saffron outfit can only come to power at the Centre riding on the crutches of its alliance partners. Therefore, the promise of getting a bill introduced in Parliament to remove all roadblocks in the construction of temple if the party was able to form a government on its own strength was just that — a promise, aimed at reassuring the cadre that it hadn’t jettisoned the temple plank.

The party, during the confabulations lasting three days, prepared a detailed chargesheet against the Manmohan Singh government, accusing it on the key fronts of internal security and economy. With the spectre of large-scale layoffs and industrial slowdown looming large, speaker after speaker at the meeting slammed the Congress-led alliance at the Centre for “goofing up” altogether on the economic front. Indeed, the ruling combine was compared to the ”wayward son’’ who, through his irresponsible and profligate ways, had frittered away the hard-earned assets of the family and wrecked its future.

The economic resolution passed by the national council, which was authored by former Union finance minister Yashwant Sinha, put the onus for the mess at the doorsteps of the Manmohan Singh government.

The party brass feels that the UPA government was vulnerable on another front, terrorism, notwithstanding the changes in the Union home ministry and the legal framework. Its attempts to corner Pakistan for its role in the Mumbai terror attack on the diplomatic stage had also failed to make any headway, with the latter taking it for a ride.

The Nagpur conclave was also noteworthy in that, after a long time, the party appeared to be closing ranks by projecting a unified face. Mr Advani also announced the composing of the team that would hammer out the party’s strategy to win the ensuing electoral battle. Arun Jaitley, Narendra Modi, Sushma Swaraj and Venkaiah Naidu lead the pack, with Mr Jaitley donning the role of the chief strategist and Mr Modi, for the first time, being asked to make a foray outside Gujarat by leading the party’s campaign in Maharashtra, Goa, Daman and Diu, Dadra and Nagar Haveli, besides his home state.

He drew praise for his governance trackrecord, organisational skills and rabblerousing abilities. Ms Swaraj, known for her oratorial skills, was projected as the principle crowd-puller.

Advantage to Congress in this elections

2009-02-09T22:50:00.000-08:00
By M H Ahssan

It appears the issue of national security and stability at the Centre will be the dominant concern for the voters and this will adversely affect the chances of a third front mish-mash coalition.

Of the 67 crore voting population in India, about 55% comes from just six states, namely Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, West Bengal and Tamil Nadu. They have 291 of the 545 Lok Sabha seats. In many ways, these states are critical in determining what kind of coalition comes to power — whether a Congress-led UPA, BJP-led NDA or a third front not led by anyone in particular. If the regional is increasingly becoming the national in Indian politics, these states have the leaders who will decide what kind of coalition will emerge victorious in the next few months. The Congress and BJP are largely at the mercy of leaders from these states, given that the two national parties together barely manage to get past the halfway mark of 272 seats in the Lok Sabha.

Jayalalithaa and Karunanidhi from Tamil Nadu, Mayawati and Mulayam Singh from Uttar Pradesh, Chandrababu Naidu from Andhra, Sharad Pawar from Maharashtra, Nitish Kumar and Lalu Yadav from Bihar, and of course, Prakash Karat on behalf of CPI(M) in West Bengal will essentially decide the fate of the new government at the Centre. The dynamics of the coming elections are interesting because, of all the leaders in the six crucial states under discussion, only one — Nitish Kumar — is clearly aligned with the BJP at present. This is a big disadvantage that the BJP faces today. Of course, one could argue that the BJP would get the support of some of these leaders post-elections if it clearly emerges as the single largest party. But as things stand today the BJP lags behind the Congress in coalition management.

The Congress has the certainty of support from SP leader Mulayam Singh Yadav, RJD’s Lalu Yadav, DMK’s Karunanidhi and NCP’s Sharad Pawar. In terms of poll arithmetic, this puts the Congress at a huge advantage. But this advantage will fructify on the ground only if the Congress manages to work out optimal seat adjustments with these leaders in their respective states. Particularly crucial are seat-sharing arrangements with Mulayam Singh in UP and Sharad Pawar in Maharashtra, both at the top of the heap in terms of number of Lok Sabha constituencies.

UP with 80 seats presents the greatest challenge and opportunity for the UPA coalition. Mulayam Singh supported the Congress on the nuclear deal on the clear understanding that the two will work to outwit Mayawati at the general elections. The formula was simple — add Congress’s vote share to that of SP’s and the combination becomes unbeatable. In the current Lok Sabha SP has 35 seats as against 19 for the BSP led by Mayawati. So it will not be easy for Mayawati to beat the SP-Congress combination if the seat adjustment done by the two is optimal. What does optimal mean? Essentially, the Congress will have to transfer its votes at the margins in favour of SP in all constituencies where it has a better chance to win. This assessment has to be done in the most dispassionate manner.

From recent reports, it appears the Congress is trying to play hardball with SP and other UPA allies. That may just be posturing to get a good bargain in seat sharing. The bottom line is the Congress will have to give space to regional allies if the situation on the ground so dictates. So the Congress may not contest 417 seats, as it did in the last Lok Sabha polls. Mind you, the BJP contested 364 seats in 2004 and won 138. The Congress on the other hand fought 417 and won 145. So, in a sense, the BJP had a better strike rate.

The Congress this time may be forced to concede many more seats to allies if it genuinely wants to transfer its votes at the margins to the UPA constituents. In UP, the advantage for the SP-Congress combination is that Mayawati’s charm may have somewhat waned after the Mumbai terror attack. For no fault of hers, though.

It appears the issue of national security and stability at the Centre will be the dominant concern on the voter’s mind and this will adversely affect the chances of a third front mish-mash coalition. The third front may not be seen as capable of delivering on the complex problems relating to national security and economic governance in these turbulent times. In this context, both the Congress and the BJP have the advantage of projecting themselves as parties that will provide stability at the Centre.

The Congress will try to leverage another perceived edge over the BJP. It will try to project itself as a natural party of economic governance. In this context alone, Dr Manmohan Singh’s projection as prime minister is a foregone conclusion. Manmohan Singh is seen as a man who can guide the economy through a global recession. The global recession and the shifting ideological consensus in favour of Keynesian economics also has the potential of bringing the Congress and the Left on the same page. In the past, Sitaram Yecuhri of CPI(M) publicly spoke against fiscal fundamentalism and is on record that the government must step up spending and work on a liberal budget deficit of 5% to 6% of GDP. Today, the fiscal deficit of the Centre is even higher and may stay at these levels in the medium term.

Though the CPI(M) leaders, notably Prakash Karat, always described Manmohan Singh as a neo-liberal in his economic orientation, the latter often tried to persuade the Left that he was first and foremost a Keynesian. In fact, Manmohan Singh resented the label of “neo liberal” which the Left leaders tried to put on him during their troubled cohabitation. This has ceased to be an issue as everyone from Obama to Manmohan Singh is now clearly following Keynesian economics. As Joseph Stiglitz told a select audience in the Planning Commission recently, “The right-wing has disappeared, and everyone is competing to be more Keynesian”.

If the CPI(M) does come back to support the UPA, post-polls, it can work on a more specific common minimum economic programme. That is another advantage to the Congress.

Recession won’t stop netas

2009-02-09T22:32:00.000-08:00
By M H Ahssan

Politicians’ Calls For Funds In The Election Season Disgust Business Leaders

Industry heads in the state are gearing up for an election ritual they have come to dread: calls for funds. They say if market rumours are any indicators then political parties have pegged the spending on each MLA at Rs 5 to Rs 10 crore, depending on the candidate and the constituency. “They will obviously get the money by drilling a hole into our pockets,” says an industrialist.

Businessmen say the 2009 election would drain them like no other election did for they are dealing with two debilitating factors — severe recession and a greater number of political parties in the fray this election season.

“With so many different parties seeking funds and our business in doldrums, it just makes things that much more difficult for us,” says an industry senior. They also say they fear saying no to any political party because in these times of coalition governments, one doesn’t know which party could emerge as an important one in the new government.

By now most industry heads are familiar and disgusted with the modus operandi of fund generation. They say that secretaries of senior politicians simply sit down with business directories, call up business houses on their board lines, ask for the chairman or the managing director and within seconds of being connected make their demand for money. “They don’t request. They simply order. If you refuse to cooperate, they start blackmailing you,’’ says an industrialist. Apparently the ‘revenge’ that parties seek could range from a planned exercise such as a sales tax raid to the more filmy knee-jerk form of sending local goons to disrupt work at a project site.

“During the last election, soon after I declined to contribute funds, my work virtually came to a stand still. From my building plan to deviations, the sanctioned plan, the authenticity of my land documents, everything was questioned by various government bodies,” recalls a builder. Needless to say, he admits to reaching a ‘compromise’ soon so that work could resume.

While calls for funds are yet to begin during this election season, the pressure to turn in favours is already mounting. “You don’t give a job to a candidate referred by them and they get raids conducted,’’ rues a senior industrialist pointing out to how he began diverting his business investments to Bangalore, to possibly insulate himself from the political mess here.

Businessmen complain that political affiliations are being imposed on them, largely based on their caste and creed. “If business is related to a particular political party, it causes great discomfort. We are technocrats, entrepreneurs and do not wish to be identified with any party. I will do whatever is right for the company and not for some political interest,” says the head of a firm.

“The business community definitely has a relationship with political parties but this kind of political interference in business is simply not done,” asserts an industry senior. He adds that of late, business houses have been buzzing with incidents of a vindictive nature for not having turned in a favour to a political party.

Unholy row in India's election commission

2009-02-09T03:55:00.000-08:00
By M H Ahssan

A bout of political gamesmanship in the run-up to elections would normally be seen as par for the course in India's raucous democracy.

But this time the controversy has tainted institutions hitherto deemed sacrosanct. With national polls just 10 or so weeks away, the Election Commission (EC) of India - the constitutional body mandated to conduct the mammoth exercise, spread across 26 states, in a free, fair and visibly non-partisan manner - has erupted in an ugly spat that has politics written all over it.

On the face of it, it's a simple issue. The EC is a three-member panel, on the neutrality and autonomy of which India's democratic process is anchored. In mid-January, the panel's chief, who functions on the principle of being "one among equals", cast doubt on the political impartiality of one of his junior colleagues, who is due to succeed him as chief during this summer's elections.

But why has this internecine war, in what should be a faceless quasi-judicial set-up, become a swirling controversy that has dragged in the high office of the Indian President, divided the entire polity, and even embroiled the legal fraternity? Why is the media so full of it, with arcane though vital questions of constitutional law being debated on front pages, faithfully reflecting the contradictory positions taken by legal eagles?

For one, it's unusual for a vital institution of the state to be in flux precisely at the time it's called into duty: an unprecedented situation, fraught with latent danger. Constitutional bodies are meant to have a sense of solidity, a weight of tradition and protocol that stabilizes the system. Anything that tips it beyond this delicate balance in the present context could potentially derail the upcoming national elections and India could be facing a constitutional logjam.

For another, it offers a fascinating picture of a law in evolution in a real, messy, practical context, being shaped by events and circumstances that it is actually meant to regulate. And lastly, this is also a play of personalities. The Election Commission is hardly the faceless legal bureaucracy you would expect it to be: over the last two decades, it has hosted a bunch of charismatic figures who, defying the collective might of the Indian political class, have played on popular yearnings and caught the public imagination.

The face-off
But first, the essential details of the present face-off. Although it had been simmering for almost three years, the whole thing hit page one with an exclusive by the editor of the southern newspaper, The Hindu. Chief Election Commissioner N Gopalaswami had sent a suo motu - meaning on its own motion - report to President of India Pratibha Patil on January 16. In this 92-page report, shored up by reams of annexures, he had recommended the removal of fellow Election Commissioner Navin Chawla for consistently taking partisan positions favoring the ruling Congress party.

Gopalaswami cited 12 instances to prove his case. From the profane to the serious, these occurred over a period between 2006-09 - that is, since Chawla was appointed Election Commissioner by the Congress-led ruling coalition. The basic charge is that Chawla attempted to influence the timetable of assembly elections in states such as Gujarat, Uttar Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh and Karnataka to suit the Congress's calculations. Three of these elections, however, were won by the Bhartiya Janta Party (BJP). The bombshell of a report goes on to suggest that Chawla regularly leaked classified information to Congress bosses - often while the EC's closed-door internal meetings were in progress. Some of Gopalaswami's citings appear quite comic. For example, he alleges that Chawla used to frequent the washroom during crucial meetings to get feedback from his political bosses on what position to take.

Known for his long association with the Gandhi family - especially Sonia Gandhi, who had been befriended by his wife Rupika Chawla when they were both students of art restoration - Navin Chawla, Gopalaswami alleged, tried to protect Sonia at least twice. Once during what was known as the "office-of-profit" controversy, when members of Parliament holding even titular posts in government-sponsored bodies fell victim en masse to a witchhunt-gone-awry that threatened to consume all parties.

Much to the embarrassment of the ruling party, even Sonia had to resign and get re-elected to avoid disqualification from Parliament. At another time, Chawla prevaricated on a case filed by a lawyer seeking to disqualify the Italian-born Sonia for receiving the Order of Leopold honor from Belgium (thus, allegedly, demonstrating her "allegiance to foreign forces"). On a third occasion, he seems to have supported the move to send Sonia Gandhi a notice for making a "provocative" campaign speech - calling Narendra Modi, the chief minister of Gujarat, a "peddler of death" - but wanted it to remain secret.

Why is this classified dossier being seen as part of a "proxy war"? Because its timing is itself not without political significance. Rather curiously, the report comes just prior to the fixing of the general election schedule. It is also bang in the middle of the election process - that is, on April 20 - that Gopalaswami will turn 65 years of age, the cut-off date of superannuation for a chief election commissioner. And, by way of past precedence, Chawla would take over from him as the Chief Election Commissioner (CEC). It is, of course, a constitutional position highly bound by rule of law and thus insulated from unilateral or arbitrary decision-making. But as the above allegations show, there are things a commission can do that go for or against political interests.

For this reason, in recent years, the EC has become subject to political appointments - career bureaucrats, tacitly loyal to one dispensation or the other, being rewarded with this high-profile posting and in return subtly guarding those interests while overall maintaining the poise and illusion of constitutional propriety. The present case has all the elements that illustrate this. The hostilities actually go back to 2006, right after Chawla came into the EC, when the Opposition BJP/ NDA petitioned then President APJ Abdul Kalam to remove him.

After this petered out, they moved court. In a judgement that left some loose ends, the Supreme Court told the petitioners to approach the CEC. It is this BJP petition, filed with Gopalaswami one year ago, that has now suddenly borne fruit. The key point of legal contention in all this revolved around whether the CEC has suo motu powers to investigate a fellow commissioner and have him removed.

Constitutional subtleties apart, there was some good, old-fashioned muck also flying around. The March 2006 petition was based on media reports - which, miraculously, surfaced around the same time - that a private trust run by Chawla's wife had been receiving discretionary donations from Congress legislators, out of public funds meant for development works. Also, that the trust got land near Jaipur, Rajasthan, at highly subsidized rates during the tenure of a Congress government. (A fresh court case was filed on it this week, signaling further bloodletting.)

That Chawla, a 63-year-old bureaucrat, had a controversial stint in Delhi during the infamous internal "emergency" of 1975, when a state of emergency was declared in India, and was seen to be close to Sanjay Gandhi was also a point of grouse. Many leaders of the opposition BJP spent time behind bars during the emergency.

Having made the decision to name Chawla to the EC, however, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's cabinet in 2006 decided to tough it out and rejected the petition - though filed with the President, it was the executive's call. The ruling United Progressive Alliance (UPA) bought temporary peace by duly okaying, alongside, the elevation of Gopalaswami to the CEC post. This it did despite the fact that he was appointed to the EC during the previous BJP and National Defense Academy rule. It's less easy to make charges of bias stick on a rulebook-bound officer like Gopalaswami. But prior to his own entry into the Election Commission, the man - who is distinguished among other things by a red vermilion caste-mark on his forehead, a rare display these days of Brahmin conservatism - was the hand-picked home secretary of former deputy PM-cum-Home Minister LK Advani, the 'Iron Man' of the right-wing BJP.

It is for this reason that the Congress has found it possible now to allege "a deep congruence" between Gopalaswami's actions and the BJP's designs. Even respected constitutional experts like Fali S Nariman and former law minister Shanti Bhushan find the timing of the CEC report suspect and political in nature. Bhushan even demanded Gopalaswami's resignation for dragging the commission and the President's office into this controversy on election-eve. The BJP, on its part, is insisting that Chawla's continuation itself is untenable, leave alone his proposed elevation. It is even considering moving the Supreme Court on this.

As the temperatures go up, the political spectrum is also genuinely stricken by the prospect of a constitutional impasse. In the midst of all this, the third man on the commission, SY Quraishi, broke all protocol and jumped the gun to announce a tentative timeframe for the Indian general elections from faraway London. Under the circumstances, it could hardly be written off as a random indiscretion - and created the impression of a triangular split. Remember, this is harvest season at the commission: its daily work would include fixing the timetable for polls that would decide who rules India for the next five years. How would three warring commissioners actually work together? At an all-party meeting called by the EC two days ago, a few delegates openly expressed their doubts.

But will the Congress brazen it out once more, allowing someone clearly perceived as a loyalist to rise to high office? Its response could evolve: though only one commissioner is retiring in April, a senior central minister told this correspondent about "two fresh appointments" being on the cards, which could mean either a scripted resignation drama or even an expansion. For the record, however, law minister HR Bharadwaj did some tough talking through the media, asking Gopalaswami not to exceed his mandate or play "political boss''. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, who is recuperating from a cardiac surgery, may not want to be seen on the side of constitutional impropriety, but the party seems to be sticking to its guns. That is, the succession can go on as scheduled; and the CEC's recommendation does not bind anyone to any course of action because the incumbent has no suo motu powers.

This moral/legal unease with the phrase suo motu, indeed, has a history that explains exactly why the Election Commission has the prestige and aura that it has in India. It goes back about two decades to the time it used to be a one-man commission. To the seminal but disturbing figure of TN Seshan, the 10th Chief Election Commissioner. A typical mandarin who rose to the very top of Indian officialdom in the 1980s doing nothing more than the servile bidding that his ilk was known for, he suddenly discovered a spine after being named the CEC. The results were nothing short of electrifying.

Those days, elections in India offered a spectacular theatre of democratic malpractice. Alcohol and money would flow in urban shanties in return for votes. And rigging in the vast rural swathes usually went beyond sophisticated sleights of hand accomplished through paperwork. With the tacit knowledge of all party bosses, political goon squads would roam the countryside and simply "capture" entire polling booths or shepherd entire villages by the truckload to vote at gunpoint. Violent clashes and killings were almost normal. Popular disenchantment with "corrupt" politicians was at an all-time high. In short, conditions were ripe for a saviour.

Enter 'Al-Seshan'
In walked Seshan, rulebook in tow, turning a position that was nothing more than a sinecure until then into the Holy Office of the Inquisition. He unilaterally ordered wall-to-wall army deployment in constituencies with a nose for trouble, countermanded elections if there was even a whiff of wrongdoing, and cracked down on parties that ignored the model code of conduct.

In short, he single-handedly took on the entire political class and, to those who questioned, all he did was refer them to the lawbook. He was an excellent scholar, and it turned out that for every sceptic he could quote a constitutional clause that protected his capacity to act. Thus, the Indian citizen began to see in him a personification of the rule of law; he had tapped into a latent desire for order.

Then hubris struck. Seshan's profile inevitably went through a sort of hyper-inflation, hasty biographies were written, and his actions started taking on a distinct dictatorial air, guided by his own vaulting ambition. After his term ended, his visions of presidential grandeur came a cropper in a disastrous bid for the country's highest office, backed, ironically, only by the extreme right-wing Shiv Sena.

But he had accomplished two things: scared witless by his runaway unilateralism, a nervous government in 1993 managed to convert the commission into a three-man panel, with the CEC merely the primus inter pares. Ever since, the precise degree to which the CEC has suzerainty over their two colleagues is a matter of high disputation - coming right down to the present fracas over suo motu powers.

He had also managed to convert the EC into quite the showpiece of Indian democracy, exporting its expertise to such nations as Afghanistan. In testing the boundaries of personal initiative in a judicial role, in exceeding and faltering, he ironically created the space for action that it now inhabits. He set off a bit of a trend, a me-too phenomenon of activist-bureaucrats even outside, behaving like sheriffs riding into a bad town, shooting straight from the lawbook. And in the EC, any number of dowdy bureaucrats who came in his wake have walked with an extra swagger and with the conviction that they sit on a huge deposit of popular trust.

In a political world awash in wavering certitudes, they still play to the perceptions of being objective umpires who refuse to kow-tow to a manipulative, self-serving political class. This aura the institution carries has been burnished anew ever so often, and frequently in very trying circumstances. Its visible neutrality also helps stabilize the polity.

The current controversy broke just days after the commission successfully conducted elections in Kashmir, where a record turnout of voters not only stunned domestic doomsayers and the international community but even shocked Kashmiri separatist leaders. Its regulatory presence and jurisprudence has also helped India manage the transition from being a single-party democracy for much of its 60 years to a multi-party coalition era where small regional parties with limited elected representatives call the shots. It's an increasingly fragmented polity, where two main national parties - the Congress and the BJP - have to depend on regional outfits to form a government or to play an effective opposition, and a non-partisan umpire provides a level playing ground.

It is this role of a neutral adjudicator that the present crop of commissioners must live up to. And the political class too would do well to realize the utility of a robust, autonomous institution goes well beyond the next election. To start with, everyone could mull over the suggestion put forward by TS Krishnamurthy, the former CEC, and the EC's ex-legal counsel KJ Rao, that the appointment of election commissioners be delinked from the executive. For it is clearly the political appointments, done by the government of the day, that has led to such unsavory episodes.

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'I'll join politics when I'm 127' - Shahrukh Khan

2009-02-05T02:26:00.000-08:00
By Sheetal Sahni

He may have loads of mass appeal, but Bollywood superstar Shah Rukh Khan ruled out the option of joining politics ...at least until he turns 127 years old.

"I might join politics at the age of 127 - when probably you guys are old and I am still young," Shah Rukh quipped at a press conference in New Delhi.

Dressed in a crisp white shirt and a chic black suit with neatly cropped hair, the 43-year-old actor spread cheer among the 200-plus crowd, including many kids, at the Emporio Mall where he came as a brand ambassador for Swiss watch brand Tag Heuer.

Shah Rukh, who is nursing a shoulder injury, was at his jocular best when he took digs at journalists and gave witty answers.

Asked about his shoulder problem, Shah Rukh told a reporter: "I just can't hug you hard enough."

"I will be well. I'm going for surgery in the next few days. I was just hoping to delay it because of a few close commitments like this event and also for promoting my film Billu Barber. As soon as that is released, I will enrol myself into a hospital and get my injury repaired."

Shah Rukh said he is upset about his injury as he cannot move as much as he would otherwise like to. He is also sad that he cannot exert his body much and, therefore, has to refrain from his daily dose of exercise too.

"I am feeling a little sad because for the next six months I won't be able to play football or do any exercise. I used to lift weights but with this injury I can't do anything of that sort," he said.

Despite the injury, Shah Rukh did not let his pain show through. He made a top official of the watch brand sing Mar jaani, mar jaani - a peppy Hindi number from Billu Barber.

Elections in India - A Sneak Review

2009-02-05T00:26:00.000-08:00
By M H Ahssan

Indian elections have an electorate larger than 670 million people - over twice that of the next largest, the European Parliament elections - and require an expenditure of around $300 million, using more than 1 million electronic voting machines, making elections in India no small exercise. [1] Elections in the European Union gives information on election and election results in the European Union. This does not adequately cite its references or sources.

It is a very elaborate process, that the size of the huge electorate mandates the elections to be conducted in a number of phases (there were four phases in 2004 General Elections). It involves a number of step-by-step processes from announcement of election dates by the Election Commission of India, which brings into force the 'model code of conduct' for the political parties, to the announcement of results and submission of the list of successful candidates to the executive head of the state or the centre. The submission of results mark the end of the election process, thereby paving way for the formation of the new government. Legislative elections were held in India, the worlds largest democracy, in four phases between April 20 and May 10, 2004. ... The Election Commission of India is a constitutional body created to hold free and fair elections in India.

Indian Electoral System
India has at the federal level a head of state - the president - and a legislature. The President of India is elected for a five year term by an electoral college consisting of members of federal and state legislatures. A system of proportional representation, with equal weightage for the Union and the States is adopted for the election. Head of state or Chief of state is the generic term for the individual or collective office that serves as the chief public representative of a monarchic or republican nation-state, federation, commonwealth or any other political state. President is a title held by many leaders of organizations, companies, trade unions, universities, and countries. A legislature is a type of representative deliberative assembly with the power to adopt laws. The President of India (Hindi: Rashtrapati) is the head of state and first citizen of India and the Supreme Commander of the Indian armed forces. ... Proportional representation (sometimes referred to as full representation, or PR), is a category of electoral formula aiming at a close match between the percentage of votes that groups of candidates (grouped by a certain measure) obtain in elections and the percentage of seats they receive (usually in legislative assemblies).

Parliament has two chambers. The House of the People (Lok Sabha) has 545 members, 543 members elected for a five year term in single-seat constituencies and 2 members appointed to represent the Anglo-Indian community. The two unelected members are a relic from the past. The special dispensation of nominating two members of European or Eurasian blood was created as a transitory arrangement, at the time of Independence in 1947, to protect the interests of the departing ruling class. The 543 members are elected under the plurality ('first past the post') electoral system.

The House of the States (Rajya Sabha) has 245 members, 233 members elected for a six year term, with one third retiring every two years. The members are elected by legistators of the state and union (federal) territories. The elected members are chosen under the system of proportional representation by means of the Single Transferable Vote. The twelve nominated members are usually an eclectic mix of eminent artists (including actors), scientists, jurists, sportspersons, businessmen and journalists. Proportional representation (sometimes referred to as full representation, or PR), is a category of electoral formula aiming at a close match between the percentage of votes that groups of candidates (grouped by a certain measure) obtain in elections and the percentage of seats they receive (usually in legislative assemblies).

History of elections in India
The first general elections were conducted in India in 1951, for 489 constituencies representing 26 Indian states. At that time, there were a few two-seat and even a three-seat constituency. The multi-seat constituencies were discontinued in the 1960s. For quite a long period of time, till 1967, the Indian National Congress party dominated the elections and garnered not less than 65% of the votes polled. [2]

History of political parties
The dominance of the Indian National Congress was broken for the first time in 1977, with the defeat of the the party led by Indira Gandhi, by an unlikely coalition of all the major other parties, which protested against the imposition of a controversial Emergency from 1975-1977. The weak coalition was marked by a strong undercurrent of dissent and lead to its breaking apart in 1979. A similar coalition, led by VP Singh was swept to power in 1989 in the wake of major allegations of corruption by the incumbent Prime-Minister, Rajiv Gandhi. It too lost its steam in 1990.

In 1992, the heretofore one-party-dominant politics in India gave way to a coalition system wherein no single party can expect to achieve a majority in the Parliament to form a Government, but rather has to depend on a process of coalition building with other parties to form a bloc and claim a majority to be invited to form the Government. This has been a consequence of strong regional parties which ride on the back of regional aspirations. While parties like the TDP and the DMK had traditionally been strong regional contenders, the 1990s saw the emergence of other regional players such as the Lok Dal, Samajwadi Party, Bahujan Samaj Party and Janta Dal. These parties are traditionally based on regional aspirations, e.g. Telengana Rastra Samiti or strongly influenced by caste considerations, e.g. Bahujan Samaj Party which claims to represent the Dalits. A coalition government, or coalition cabinet, is a cabinet in parliamentary government in which several parties cooperate.

A coalition of non-congress parties was formed again in 1996, but was a lost cause by 1997, when it became a congress supported regime. It disintegrated in 1998, which swept the National Democratic Alliance to the power for the first time. This too was short-lived and lost the majority on the floor of the house by a single vote in a no-confidence motion. A coalition of non-congress parties worked for the first time in the period 1999-2004, when for the first time, a non-congress government was able to complete its term in office. The National Democratic Alliance is a name used by at least two groups India - National Democratic Alliance (India) Iraq - National Democratic Alliance (Iraq) Sudan - National Democratic Alliance (Sudan) This is a disambiguation page — a navigational aid which lists other pages that might otherwise share the same title.

Presently, the United Progressive Alliance led by the Congress Party is in power, while the National Democratic Alliance forms the opposition. United Progressive Alliance (UPA) is the present ruling coalition of political parties in India. ... The Indian National Congress (also known as the Congress Party) is the largest subscription-based organisation in the world.

Powers of Election Commission
The elections are conducted by the Election Commission of India, the authority created under the Constitution. It is a well established convention that once the election process commences, no courts intervene until the results are declared by the election commission. During the elections, vast powers are assigned to the election commission to the extent that it can function as a civil court, if needed. The Election Commission of India is a constitutional body created to hold free and fair elections in India.

Electoral Process
Electoral Process in India takes at least a month for state assembly elections with the duration increasing further for the General Elections, as the sheer size of the electorate and immense logistics require the general election be conducted in a number of phases. Publishing of electoral rolls is a key process that happens before the elections and is vital for the conduct of elections in India. Indian Constitution set the eligibility of an individual for voting. Any person, who is a citizen of India, and above 18 years of age is eligible to enroll as a voter in the electoral rolls. It is the responsibility of the eligible voters to enroll their names. Normally, voter registrations are allowed one week prior to the last date for nomination of candidates. Apart from this, ECI conducts periodical door-to-door voter registration/verification drives and publishes the electoral rolls online and offline, where electoral are made public at Head Post Offices of a town/city.

Pre elections
Before the elections, the election commission announces the dates of nomination, polling and counting. The model code of conduct comes in force from the day the dates are announced. The model code of conduct is a code of conduct mutually agreed upon by various parties to be followed during the elections.[3]

The code of conduct specifies that the central and state governments cannot announce any major sops to the electorate to prevent any unfair swings in the voting pattern. No party is allowed to use the government resources for campaigning. Candidates are required to declare their assets, age, educational qualifications and criminal history. Convicted criminals are debarred from standing in the elections as well as disfranchised. Persons still on trial may contest, but can be debarred if found guilty. The code of conduct stipulates that campaigning be stopped 48 hours prior to polling day.

Like-minded political parties form alliances and seat-sharing arrangements in each state. Alliances are even formed after the elections to enable government formation. It is not unlikely to see parties having won mandate from people on opposing platforms come toegther for the sake of power. This negates the democratic aspect of the exercise and at times the common voter ends up with a government which he may have voted against in large number. The seat-sharing arrangement helps the alliance field a candidate from one party to prevent splitting of the votes. For a long time, extravagant electoral spending by the parties and candidates alike had much impact on vote swing. The stakes in the elections are so huge that extravagant spending by political parties ranged from putting up huge hoardings, posting posters on walls, and giving freebies (political parties used to give colour televisions and gold coins as gifts) during campaigning. Today, the model code of conduct theoretically bans such extravagant spending during campaigning, aims to protect voters from harassment by the parties and also imposes ban on use of loudspeakers after 10pm.

Voting Day
Campaigning ends the day before the voting day. Government schools and colleges are chosen to be the polling stations. The day of the elections is declared a holiday and all liquor shops and bars are shut down. The Collector of each district is in charge of polling. Government servants are employed to many of the polling stations. Electronic Voting Machines (EVMs) are being increasingly used instead of ballot boxes to prevent election fraud via booth capturing, which is heavily prevalent in certain parts of India. An indelible ink manufactured by the Mysore Paints and Varnish Limited is applied usually on the left index finger of the voter as an indicator that the voter has cast his vote. This practice has been followed since the 1962 general elections and prevents bogus voting. Mysore Paints and Varnish Limited is a company located in the city of Mysore, India.

Post elections
After the election day, the EVM’s are stored in a strong room under heavy security. After the different phases of the elections are complete, a day is set to count the votes. The votes are tallied and typically, the verdict is known within a few hours. The candidate who has mustered the most votes is declared the winner of the constituency.

The party or coalition that has won the most seats is invited by the President to form the new government. The coalition or party must prove its majority in the floor of the house (Lok Sabha) in a vote of confidence by obtaining a simple majority (minimum 50%) of the votes in the House.

Technology and Indian Elections 2009

2009-02-04T23:40:00.000-08:00
By M H Ahssan

Every elected representative should be mandated to keep an updated website which provides continued coverage of the activities being done. It should be possible to map promises and action. A discussion area in every constituency website should provide a forum for the local citizens to air their comments and problems. The Internet can thus work as a two-way information bridge between the government and the citizens. This will create for more meaningful and responsible governance.

At a bigger level, citizens should also be invited to air their comments on policy. Occasionally, different government departments do put up discussion papers for comments. In most cases, it is hard to find out about these unless one closely tracks the websites. This is where wikis, weblogs and RSS can make a big difference: wikis can provide a forum for discussion, weblogs can provide information on the updates for each of the government departments, and RSS can ensure that these updates are available for syndication to interested citizens. By standardizing how each government department disseminates information, it will become easier for citizens to find out what is happening and then be able to contribute back in their fields of expertise. If India needs to leap forward, it needs to harness the collective intelligence of its people – a publish-subscribe framework ensures just that.

Every government department should also be asked to publish its statement of accounts online, with a capability to drill down into the numbers. Supporting vouchers should be scanned and available electronically for examination. Let our accountants then go through these and point out discrepancies if any. This is one way to ensure that funds get used for what they are supposed to be. No single entity may be able to go through all of the details, but as a community few errors will escape the group. This idea borrows from open-source software: by publishing the source and using the eyes of the developers community, there are few bugs which are left unattended to in the software.

India’s election season: bad for minorities

2009-02-04T23:38:00.000-08:00
By Shruti Saxena

The world's largest democracies are holding great election contests in 2008-09. There are intriguing parallels and contrasts in the way that prominent issues are discussed and managed by the respective political systems in Washington and New Delhi.

The United States presidential election, which reaches its climax on 4 November 2008, was dominated for a good part of its course by debates about race and gender; the result has been to make the prospects of a first black president and first woman president look far more normal than they once did. India's election (to be held by May 2009) will take place in a country which has had Sikh and female prime ministers, as well as Muslim, Sikh and Dalit presidents; today, a Dalit woman is a serious contender for the prime-minister's job (see KV Prasad, "Can Mayawati do a Barack Obama?", The Hindu, 4 November 2008). In this, India could try to claim that it has already successfully addressed the problems which the US is now only beginning to face.

But the reality is not so benign. India's experience also shows that access to a position of power does not of itself entail an end to rampant discrimination against minorities or marginalised groups. In 2008, some of India's largest political parties and their supporters have instigated or defended violence and hate against ethnic minorities - thus demonstrating that electing a woman or a Dalit is far from enough to guarantee equality and human rights. Rather, electing leaders from disadvantaged populations can - unless this is matched by coherent social action and education - come to be a shiny facade that conceals a vacuum where real commitment by the state to protect minority rights should be.

A turn inward

A number of recent events has focused attention on the wounded status of minorities in India. Since August 2008, Kandhamal district in Orissa state has been the scene of acts of religious violence following the murder on 23 August of an elderly leader of the extremist, rightwing Hindu group the Vishwa Hindu Parishad (VHP). In retaliation, mobs went on a protest rampage of killings, rape and arson. Initially, a Maoist insurgent group active in the region was held by many to be responsible for the death of Swami Laxmanananda Saraswati and his four aides - and even made a claim of responsibility itself. But the VHP and its youth wing, the Bajrang Dal - which are closely affiliated to India's main opposition party, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) - chose instead to blame and target the local Christian community.

For decades, Christian missionaries have offered health and education programs to marginalised tribal groups in Orissa and similar areas; this has led many residents subsequently to convert to Christianity. The Hindu groups have over the last decade demanded that they "reconvert" to Hindusim, in a campaign that often included force and intimidation. Thus, when the VHP leader was shot, they found it convenient immediately to assume that local Christians were responsible (see Jacob Ignatius, "India's Christians: politics of violence in Orissa", 1 September 2008).

One family described how they managed to flee into the nearby jungles when the mob arrived. But a relative, confined to a wheelchair, could not get away and was beaten and killed. Priests described how they suffered extensive beatings; one of those attacked, Father Bernard Digal, died in hospital on the night of 28-29 October. Two days later, on 31 October, five police officers were suspended for dereliction of duty after a nun recounted her rape. Nearly forty people were killed, scores injured and thousands displaced in the violence.

The perpetrators of this brutality show no remorse. Instead, they display a confident assertion of Hindu identity, no doubt in the hope that such aggression will be rewarded with Hindu votes for the BJP. The attacks on churches and Christians have even spread to other parts of India, including the states of Kerala and Karnataka. In Orissa, where the state government failed to anticipate and prevent the violence, villagers still report that they are allowed to return to their ravaged homes only after they have been through a "reconversion" ceremony.

The VHP and Bairang Dal have also sought to exacerbate tensions in the troubled state of Jammu & Kashmir. In an election-year there, a dispute exploded over the proposed transfer of land to build shelters during an annual Hindu pilgrimage into the Muslim-majority Kashmir valley; some parties (including separatist groups) mobilised to oppose this, and when the transfer was revoked the Hindu-majority areas of Jammu in turn erupted in protest (see Muzamil Jameel, "Kashmir's new generation", 13 October 2008). Some demonstrators attacked police officers and government property. There are persistent allegations that the violence was to a large degree instigated by vote-seekers.

In Mumbai (Bombay), the cosmopolitan capital of Maharashtra, the glorious bustle of emerging India is often disrupted by violence from supporters of the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS), a regional party that claims to speak for people native to the state. The supporters of the hardline MNS leader Raj Thackeray, regularly harass and assault migrants to the city from the poorer Hindi-speaking states of northern India.

The effect is to coarsen and politicise local discourse and social relations. Two incidents in October 2008 are emblematic. First, MNS activists broke into a railways-recruitment examination, insisting that such jobs should be reserved for locals, and beat up and chased away the candidates from other parts of the country. Second, around a quarter of the near-800 Jet Airline employees who were to lose their jobs appealed to Raj Thackeray for support and found a ready response, including threats to the airline.

From words to action

After a spate of terrorist bomb-attacks in several Indian cities in 2008, police arrested a number of alleged members of the group that claimed responsibility - which called itself the "Indian Mujaheddin" (believed by investigatoes to be affiiliated to the Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami [HuJI] and Students Islamic Movement of India [Simi]). The true perpetrators of such indiscriminate attacks should indeed be brought to justice, though a long history of "rounding up the usual suspects" (which usually means Muslims) and failing to arrest the perpetrators mean that there is little faith in the Indian authorities' counter-terror efforts (see Ajai Sahni, "India's urban war: through the smoke", 17 September 2008).

Moreover, Indian politicians usually ignore demands for transparent and independent investigations into incidents of arbitrary arrests or deaths in custody. Now, however, elections are due: and suddenly, the issue of human rights finds itself at the centre of extraordinary attention in political debates. Some parties are demanding judicial investigations into allegations of police killings in New Delhi, while other parties oppose this; each accuses the other of base attempts to appeal to their Muslim or Hindu voters.

An election is supposed to be the cornerstone of a democracy, the event where its core principles of debate, plurality, tolerance, and free choice are displayed and celebrated. The electoral process in India is increasingly distant from this ideal (see Sumantra Bose, "Uttar Pradesh: India's democratic landslip", 29 May 2007). What it churns out is a lot of ugliness, a poisoning of societies with hate simply in an effort to gain votes.

India's political parties would serve citizens, the country and ultimately also themselves better if they remember that what voters want most is safety and security. These can be achieved only through respect for minorities - whether migrants from other parts of the country or people of different religious faiths.

India may have had a Dalit president, and the country has laws that outlaw descent-based caste discrimination; yet the practice remains all-pervasive and deeply rooted. The authorities do little to punish lawbreakers.

Instead of grand pronouncements, strong action is needed to end discrimination based on caste, religious or ethnicity. Active opposition to abuses such as killings, arbitrary arrests or threats against whole communities, from whatever source, should be a minimum qualification for any person or party that wants to govern any nation - and particularly one that prides itself on being the "world's largest democracy."

Elections 2009: What’s Different from 2004?

2009-02-04T23:36:00.000-08:00
By Rajesh Kumar

Even as Obama takes oath to become the 44th president of the US, India is gearing up for its own election season. Sometime in April-May, hundreds of millions will vote in the general elections for the 15th Lok Sabha. It would have been hard to imagine five years ago that the Congress would have been able to stay in power with a cobbled coalition for the full term, but they did — even as they switched partners from the Left to the Samajwadi Party towards the end. So, as we look ahead to the elections this year, what has changed since 2004? Here are some of my thoughts:

2009 will probably see a more fragmented verdict than 2004, making the task of government formation harder. In 2004, the Congress got 150 seats, the BJP 130, the Left 60, and about 200 went to various other parties. In 2009, I think the Congress-BJP combo will probably again find it difficult tocross the 300 mark. One big factor is the rise of the Bahujan Samajwadi Party in central India. For the Congress to come back to power, they will need to at least get 150 seats and then work on putting together a coalition. I think the bar for the BJP is much higher — it needs to win 200 seats on its own. Like last time, pre-poll alliances will make a difference.

There is a distinct possibility this time of a non-Congress, non-BJP government at the centre, with Mayawati hoping to do a Deve Gowda. If the BSP wins 60-80 seats, she will get support from the Left, and then it can all be up for grabs to get to the 270-mark.

The economy is on a down trend, as against the uptrend of 2004. The last year has posed many challenges, and the present government has not handled them well.
There is a heightened civic consciousness among citizens, which has grown in the past couple years. I think we will see higher voting percentages this time around. It is not clear who will benefit from this. This engagement is especially higher among the Youth.

Getting voters out on the big day will matter since one can expect some smaller parties and dissidents to also contest and split the vote, thus reducing victory margins and putting more seats in play.

Both the national parties have a Prnce-in-waiting (Rahul Gandhi for the Congress, and Narendra Modi for the BJP). If either of the Congress or BJP comes to power, expect a mid-term power transfer.

On the tech front, I think mobile marketing will play an important role, given that 300+ million Indian voters have a mobile in their hands.

Finally, there are the “Learnings of Obama” — I am sure all parties have studied what Obama did in the past 2 years in the US. But one has to be careful innot overplaying the Obama card. India’s election process is different. So, one has to also know what will not work in India.

I think the Congress (as Incumbent) will benefit from playing the same game, while the BJP needs to focus on “Disruptive Innovations” as the Challenger. All in all, it will be a fascinating 4 months - with the elections, and the negotiations to form a government.

What do you think will happen in the elections? If you were strategising for any of the political parties, what would you do?

Will it be a boring, lacklustre Election 2009?

2009-02-01T22:25:00.000-08:00
By M H Ahssan

The most intriguing feature of the forthcoming general election, due barely 100 days from now, is the apparent absence of headiness. Yes, there is lobbying for tickets and countless strategy sessions in Lutyens’ Delhi, the predictable sparring between party spokespersons, the endless alignments and re-alignments, and even the odd padyatras and public meetings. However, the contrived ‘mass movements’ and emotional pumping that preceded some recent elections are absent. This passivity doesn’t stem from the lack of issues which excite voters but despite an overload of concerns. For now, the political class is conveying the impression that a general election is something that India has learnt to take in its stride, without getting too hyper about it.

Whether this appearance of a phoney war signals the healthy evolution of democratic culture or is an indication of the growing disenchantment with politics and politicians, is best left to scholars to assess. What seems clear though is that future historians may not view the coming festival of democracy as a defining landmark — a time when Indians break the existing mould of political alignments. Regardless of the verdict or even the lack of one, the campaign seems set to be lacklustre, even a bit of a bore.

Maybe, a Narendra Modi or a Chiranjeevi could help lift the levels of popular involvement by injecting passion into the proceedings. But inspired interventions are likely to be patchy. The mood in India is not happily or angrily exuberant; it is marked by sober reflection. As such, the dominant campaign rhetoric of both the Congress and the NDA may well be stodgy, not inspirational. The contests may well involve marketing modest promises rather than conjuring lofty dreams.

The reason has very little to do with the personalities and temperament of the main players. A dream such as Indira Gandhi’s Garibi Hatao in 1971, Rajiv Gandhi’s ‘brave new world’ in 1984 and L K Advani’s invocation of Hindutva in 1991 could break new electoral ground because their appeal was pan-Indian and novel. There are two themes in this election that resonate across much of India: the war on terror and economic insecurity. Unfortunately for both the government and the principal opposition, their potential for partisan exploitation is marred by voter cynicism. To put it bluntly, there is insufficient faith in the ability of either the UPA or the NDA to make a profound difference. Dissatisfaction with the existing state of counter-terrorism and the fear of job losses may help tilt the balance of incumbency slightly against the government. But that will also depend on whether voters believe the alternative is an improvement over the government’s complacency.

Past experience suggests that a single political theme can dominate an election if audacity can successfully blend with novelty. There was a freshness — even innocence — in the Indira of 1971, the Rajiv of 1984 and the BJP until 1998. The political formations of today are more cautious and somewhat jaded. This does not condemn them automatically but it does limit their ability to go beyond the mundane. It will take every bit of ingenuity on the part of candidates to ensure that voter turnout is high.

A corollary of the invisible common theme is the likelihood that Election 2009 will not be presidential in character. It is a measure of responsible politics that the NDA has chosen its leader and this may yet force the UPA to name its prime ministerial candidate. But the role of the leaders will remain purely symbolic as long as there is no overriding theme. Their photos will grace the posters and the media will follow them throughout the land but voters will not perceive them as candidates for all the 542 constituencies. The election could resemble a chess game, not a 100 metre dash.

Election 2009 may also be the strategists’ nightmare on account of its fragmentation. An election that becomes a cacophony of divergence may well end up generating a default polarisation — along local caste and, occasionally, religious lines. But this is by no means inevitable. Lok Sabha constituencies tend to be too large and amorphous to make purely local alignments viable. Voters, too, react differently in national and local elections. This time, a successful election strategy could centre on a party’s ability to connect people’s personal experiences with their sense of well being and their aspirations. It implies that the local considerations could take precedence over national grandstanding.

If the quality and credibility of local candidates shape the election, the outcome could be infuriatingly complex, even unanticipated. This may not be good for stability but voters opt for reassurance only after experiencing real turbulence.

India’s General Elections 2009 : The Run-Up

2009-01-28T23:37:00.000-08:00
By Dr. Subhash Kapila

General Elections earlier than the scheduled timing of the first half of 2009 has been an active talking point in India’s political circles for nearly a year. This speculation was fuelled by the stream of ultimatums emanating from the ruling Congress Party coalition partners threatening to withdraw support on every conceivable issue and bring about the fall of the Congress-led Government. Leading the pack more actively has been the Leftists combine led by the CPI(M).

Despite the brouhaha that they create on this count neither the Leftists combine nor the coalition partners of the Congress like the RJD, DMK etc have the political courage to exit power. The Congress itself is unsure of whether it can return to power. The Leftists are smug in exercising political control over the Government without accountability having a plausible exit strategy that they are not part of the Government. They too are uncertain along with the other coalition parties of the Congress that they can retain even the present number of seats that they hold in Parliament. All in all the Congress Government and its coalition parties would like to ride out their full tenure in power.

Unless some unforeseen dramatic political development takes place the next General Election in India seems set to take place in 2009 only. But then even if the General Elections take place in 2009 only, the fact is that it is just about a year left in the run-up to them and it really is not that much time left. It therefore becomes appropriate to survey India’s political scene as it presents itself today.

The first to get off the block in terms of gearing itself for the forthcoming General Elections has been the major Opposition Party, the BJP. Having resolved their inner-party leadership issue they have named Shri L K Advani as their Prime Ministerial candidate and to fight the Elections under his leadership. The BJP could have also named their “Shadow Cabinet” as was recommended in an earlier Column of mine. There is a whole line-up of competent and tried BJP leaders who should be projected for all the important ministerial portfolios as part of their “Shadow Government”. This would give the BJP a big political edge over the Congress Party and add to its image of having both talent and political competence within its ranks.

The BJP however, has not fully got into a pro-active election-mode. With just about a year left in the run-up, the BJP as the main Opposition Party should have been a bee-hive of political activity especially in the States which it intends to re-capture from the Congress and whose loss in the last Elections led to its exit from power.

The Congress is a party dominated by a single political dynasty and does not have many politically talented people in its ranks. Once again the Congress Party the way it is structured would have to depend on the Gandhi dynasty duo of Mrs. Sonia Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi to garner votes. They have not and further shy away from naming any Prime Ministerial candidate like the BJP. The strategy seems to be following a dual-track approach with the Congress leaders clamoring that Rahul Gandhi should be the next Prime Minister and the dynasty denying any such ambitions. In terms of feverish political preparations Rahul Gandhi seems to be concentrating heavily on the under-developed regions of Uttar Pradesh like Bundelkhand and tribal areas of Orissa and Central India.

There seems to be an underlying strategy in this pattern which seems to rest on a number of political considerations. Firstly it is easier to draw attention to the neglect of these areas by non-Congress Governments ruling in such States forgetting that Congress too is responsible for the neglected state. Secondly, it is easier to draw large crowds in such poor areas for Congress political meetings. Thirdly, the calculation seems to be that in such areas the iconic appeal of the dynasty may be much larger.

But there is a negative deduction that emerges here and that is that the Gandhi dynasty may have lost its political iconic appeal in urban and developed areas of India and therefore are politically concentrating on such backward areas.

The Congress seems to be taking very seriously the political threat that Shri Advani poses by the BJP naming him the Prime Ministerial candidate. The Congress Party seems to be in an overdrive to single out Shri Advani as the main target of their political attacks in the run-up to the Elections in a bid to erode his political credibility.

The Leftists despite their hold on West Bengal and Kerala do not seem to be destined to even retain the sixty odd seats that they occupy in Parliament presently. In an India which is economically resurgent today and where affluence is becoming a way of life, the Communists are not likely to offer much political appeal.

The regional parties like the RJD and the DMK who because of the coalition arithmetic received disproportionate political importance from the Congress do not seem to be returning back with the same clout.

India’s political scene however is pervaded heavily by the uncertain political tilt of Ms Mayawati who swept into political power in Uttar Pradesh on the strength of a new political formula of adding economically weaker upper castes to her Dalit captive vote banks. This was covered in an earlier Column on her success.
Her party the BSP with its new political formula could double the number of seats that she holds in Parliament and this could be at the cost of both the Congress and the BJP. She could become a vital “swing factor” for both the Congress and the BJP in case of a hung Parliament.

Ultimately, one needs to remember that the Congress and the BJP are the two major political parties of India and the results of the 2009 General Elections would revolve around their respective overall showings and the yearning of the Indian people for a strong leadership capable of leading a growingly nationalistic resurgent India without the delusional mindsets of non-alignment and minority vote-banks appeasement.

India's opposition on the ropes

2009-01-28T03:29:00.000-08:00
By M H Ahssan

With the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance coalition having bounced back with surprising vigor in India's recently concluded state assembly elections - snagging three out of five states - its main opposition, the right-wing Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), has begun to look increasingly vulnerable in the run-up to the May general elections.

Unsurprisingly, no sooner did the state election results filter in than senior Congress leaders seized on the opportunity to pronounce how their party was the likely winner come May.

"The Congress has improved its prospects to return to power after the assembly elections, which have been a morale boost for the rank and file of the party," Parliamentary Affairs Minister Vayalar Ravi said at a press conference.

Indeed they have, but another important factor was the government's speed in showing the door to controversial home minister Shivraj Patil and former Maharashtra chief minister Vilasrao Deshmukh after the November 26, 2008, Mumbai terror attacks. It followed this up with a raft of tough new anti-terror laws, and in his first few days in office new Home Minister P C Chidambaram has steered through a record number of tough anti-terror laws in parliament. The steps have naturally bolstered the public image of the Congress-led government, which had been accused of being "soft" on terror.

With these steps in place and its assembly election successes in its pocket, an upbeat Congress leadership is moving in for the kill with an eye on the polls. At a meeting this month, party chief Sonia Gandhi directed all state units to submit a list of probable candidates by the month's end. Hectic talks are going on to select the best candidates, with All-India Congress Committee general secretary Rahul Gandhi pitching in to vet many of them.

In direct contrast to the optimistic mood of the Congress camp, the BJP - which had been on an upward trajectory for most of 2008 - has been divided by internal dissent over many issues, including its choice of party candidates for the election.

Even its prime ministerial choice, 81-year-old L K Advani, is seeming more like a liability after the party's shocking rout in the state elections in Delhi. That's because, as political pundits point out, Advani is acknowledged as ideologically more extreme than former prime minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee, which makes him less acceptable to many.

Insiders point out that middle-roader Vajpayee was the glue that held the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) - the coalition that had governed India until 2004 - together when it was in power. And despite being part of the BJP flank, Vajpayee's appeal was widespread among its coalition members, including the breakaway factions of the erstwhile Janata Dal (JD) party, which stayed in the coalition mainly because of him.

But now with Vajpayee physically unfit and Advani being positioned as the BJP's prime ministerial candidate, discomfort among coalition members is growing by the day. And party cracks are showing; Sharad Yadav, a former socialist who was recently appointed as the convener of NDA, didn't have any qualms in publicly expressing his wish that "Vajpayee was still around to guide them in the forthcoming parliamentary elections".

"The party is in a bad shape," said a senior BJP leader, who preferred anonymity. "We have not improved our position at all. Internal feuds will be our worst enemy in the coming elections."

The BJP is also facing growing restlessness among some of the NDA's major allies, such as the JD and the Biju Janata Dal, which apparently have some serious differences with the party. Meanwhile, the Communist Party of India and other leftist parties have publicly claimed they have received positive signals from some NDA allies keen to forge a so-called "third front".

To add to the party's woes, BJP vice president and former Uttar Pradesh chief minister Kalyan Singh quit the party recently, resigning from all party posts as he said he was feeling "neglected". In a letter to party president Rajnath Singh, the 76-year-old - who has been sulking over various issues - said he was feeling "unhappy" and would not compromise and continue with the party.

Insiders could have already saw this coming, as Singh had been keeping away from important BJP meetings for months. At the time of his resignation, he said the BJP had sidelined him and he was "not being given due importance in a party which he had contributed to establishing".

As if this wasn't bad enough, in another blow to the party, one of the BJP's senior-most leaders and the country's former vice president - Bhairon Singh Shekhawat - has challenged the party's choice of prime ministerial candidate by throwing his own hat into the ring.

Shekhawat, who created a flutter within the BJP by declaring that he would contest the upcoming Lok Sabha (Lower House of the parliament) polls at the ripe age of 86, also hit out at Rajnath Singh for his remark that "somebody who has held a constitutional post should not enter the electoral fray". He even went to the extent of saying that Vajpayee should give the post a shot if his health improves. Clearly, there's no dearth of aspiring prime ministers in the BJP fold.

The party's internal fractures showed again recently when top leaders of the NDA congregated in New Delhi in December to celebrate Vajpayee's 84th birthday. Interestingly, Vajpayee was missing. Though his glaring absence embarrassed the party, with his health blamed, insiders reveal that the stalwart is disenchanted with the way things are going in the party.

Apart from these niggling worries, non-BJP coalition partners in the NDA are also concerned about the state of their present relationship with the "saffron party". For instance, the JD in Bihar and the Biju Janata Dal in Orissa are at loggerheads with local BJP units. There is similar discontent in many other states.

Meanwhile, Advani is attempting to revive the party's electoral chances by winning over the young (under 35) demographic which constitutes two-thirds of India's 1.1 billion population. The BJP stalwart has launched a publicity blitzkrieg - a website, a blog and a large budget advertising campaign to target young voters. Two blogposts in three days - one on spirituality and the other on technology - were launched by Advani this month, leading the media to dub him India's "new kid on the blog".

However, despite a downbeat pre-election mood in the BJP camp, analysts say the political situation is dynamic and could change ahead of the election. This would be hardly surprising considering that in the past decade trends in Indian politics have veered more towards multi-polarity than one-party rule. In the last Lok Sabha polls, for instance, the BJP and the Congress together won only 283 seats, a tad more than the halfway mark in the 543-member house.

In other words, the elections are still anyone's game, and it this thrill of the unexpected that will make the election in the world's largest democracy all the more exciting.

AP Congress geared up for elections

2009-01-23T23:34:00.000-08:00
By Sharat Kumar

Gearing up the party machinery for the elections, the state Congress on Friday initiated the process of selection of candidates for the LS and Assembly constituencies in the state. As a first step, all the district committees of the party have been asked to send a panel of aspirants for consideration by the PCC.

PCC president D Srinivas wrote letters to all the district Congress and city Congress committees in the state asking them to send the panel of names before February 15. The lists of candidates received from the districts will be scrutinised by the Pradesh Election Committee before it is sent to the Central Election Committee of the AICC.

“The district committees will select the candidates on the basis of their winnability. The social background of the aspirants will also be kept in mind while finalising the names,” the PCC chief said while addressing the media here on Friday. Each DCC would submit a panel of three to four names for each Lok Sabha and Assembly constituency falling in its area.

“Though the final list will be prepared from these panels, selection of candidates outside this list cannot be ruled out. This can happen if the party finds some one more eligible than the ones recommended by the DCC,” Srinivas said. The state committee is expected to send the list before March 1, 2009.

The PCC president was not clear when asked if any of the sitting party MPs and legislators would be dropped. He was also evasive when asked to comment on chief minister Y S Rajasekhara Reddy’s remark that senior leaders in the age group of 70 and above may face the axe.

The extended meeting of the PCC executive is scheduled to be held on February 8 to discuss the poll strategy. Apart from the CM, AICC general secretary incharge of AP affairs M Veerappa Moily and AICC coordinator for Andhra Pradesh P J Kurien are scheduled to attend the meeting.

BJP's blues

2009-01-22T00:09:00.000-08:00
By M H Ahssan

The exit of Kalyan Singh from the party for the second time seems to leave the BJP leaders rather indifferent. It looks as though that the man who was once the face of the party in Uttar Pradesh is totally dispensable. Is he? The party feels so. So there has been no attempt to either mollify him or dissuade him.

The BJP is right now a small player in the big state of the Hindi heartland; it has not reinvented itself and shows no inclination to do so either. There is no Gen Next waiting to take over. It is for this reason that the apathy of the party top brass towards the man who can claim to have grassroots base in the state comes as a surprise.

The provocation for the exit of the former chief minister is typically feudal. He wanted his seat of Bulandshahr to be left to be decided by him, and opposed tooth and nail its allotment to Ashok Pradhan, who he says worked against the party in the assembly elections last year. The party leaders refused to oblige.

Kalyan Singh has said that he was not going to float another party as he did in 1999 when he left the BJP the first time. (He rejoined in 2004 in the run up to the Lok Sabha election.)

He is in talks with Samajwadi Party's Mulayam Singh Yadav, but there is nothing substantial yet to show for it.

It would however set off speculation as to whether the fragmented backward caste segments as represented by Mulayam Singh Yadav and Kalyan Singh can join forces to challenge the rising political fortunes of Mayawati and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP).

Will he damage poll fortunes of the BJP in UP? It is unlikely. Kalyan Singh's presence did not help the BJP much in the 2004 election.He is in many ways a superannuated politician, a spent force much in the manner of another disgruntled and rebel BJP leader, former vice-president Bhairon Singh Shekhawat. But the BJP has not yet found in UP a leader like it did in neighbouring Madhya Pradesh.

Not many tears will be shed for the plight of Kalyan Singh because he has outlived his moment of importance. But that does not leave the BJP in a happy position.

In many ways, the party remains in the shadows like its former mascot. What remains is mutual recriminations --bitter, futile.

It’s rather grim out there

2009-01-11T23:00:00.000-08:00
The uncertainty prior to the looming Lok Sabha polls, an impending earnings collapse and the impact of pursuing unsustainable business models do not afford much scope for the market to recover soon, says U R Bhat

OVER the last five months inflation has fallen from a near 13% level to less than half the level now and economists of all hues have a rare consensus view that it will moderate further to near 2% levels over the next few months. In tandem with this, market interest rates have also collapsed with the10-year gilt quoting at a yield of under 6%, a steep fall from the 9.5% level obtaining five months ago. The Reserve Bank of India has pumped in liquidity in excess of Rs 200,000 crore into the system during this period and signalled a soft interest rate regime leading to banks beginning to trim interest rates. The economic stimulus initiatives announced by the government covering indirect tax cuts, increased social sector spending and making credit available to infrastructure creation, commercial vehicles, housing and exports are expected to soften the impact of the economic slowdown.

There is no denying that the government and the RBI have been proactive in dealing with the consequences of the economic slowdown. Falling interest rates should help banks post substantial gains on their investment book in the December 2009 quarter and coupled with market valuations that have corrected steeply over the last one year, several market participants believe that there is a case for a sustained rally in the Indian equity markets in 2009.

It is useful to analyse the potential impact of the recent monetary and fiscal measures on the likely course of the equity markets in 2009. Soft interest rates and increased liquidity need to be seen as only two of the several factors that can influence investment or the willingness to borrow. For a potential house buyer, in addition to the confidence that he will continue to be gainfully employed over the next couple of decades or more, the price-rent-EMI (equated monthly instalments) equation needs to be in his favour to enable him to decide on a purchase.

A commercial vehicle operator would look to expand his business based on an assessment of the interplay between factors like freight rates, maintenance costs, traffic potential and vehicle acquisition costs in addition to financing costs and the level of depreciation allowable for tax purposes. Similarly, for a corporate contemplating new capacity creation, in addition to low enough interest rates, what is critical is the confidence on optimum capacity utilisation once the capacity is in place. For a commercial bank, in addition to lower deposit costs, what is critical is the ability to lend at rates that adequately price the risks relating to the economic environment and the capacity of the borrower to service the loan. In short, a low enough interest rate environment can hardly force entrepreneurs or house buyers to borrow or for banks to lend unless there is enough confidence in favourable economic outcomes in the future.

The inability of the system to quickly translate abundant liquidity to increase bank lending at money market related interest rates to all sectors of the economy can therefore be seen to be caused by a rational assessment of the bleak prospects of most businesses in a slowing economy. In addition, a network effect is at play wherein the working capital cycle is influenced by the flow of credit to all the parties involved, whether the vendor, the manufacturer, the service provider or the customer. If the financing needs of one or more in this chain are unmet owing to credit or solvency-related concerns, the working capital cycle comes to a grinding halt resulting in potential losses to other credit providers.

MONETARY policy measures typically work in long cycles subject to the financial transmission mechanism remaining efficient. As long as banks remain fundamentally sound, lower funding costs would eventually lead to credit creation and rise in investment that should ultimately result in accelerated economic growth. The return of business confidence can facilitate this transmission mechanism but pending this, given the seriousness of the current impasse, it may be necessary for the authorities to go beyond providing liquidity by way of refinance and even interest subventions and consider some form of credit enhancement or risk sharing.

In the international context, it is obvious that a deep synchronised recession is casting its ugly shadow on the industrialised world. Deleveraging is the dominant theme in the global financial markets and for the over-indebted households in the US, this means a dramatic change in their spending habits from unbridled consumption to building up savings. For the large number of undercapitalised international banks, deleveraging requires them to substantially shed assets and garner more risk capital, possibly from the respective governments.

These processes by their very nature are slow and therefore it is reasonable to expect that a sustained global economic recovery is quite some time away, at least not until 2010. Against this background of painful deleveraging, including the near collapse of the hedge fund industry, risk appetite is unlikely to rise any time soon. Our expectations of fresh inflows into the Indian equity markets need to be seen in this context.

Given that foreign portfolio investments, on the margin, have been the important determinant of market direction, the implications for the Indian equity markets in 2009 are obvious. It is also fair to expect that the magnitude of the global meltdown in 2008 and its transmission into India through the channels of trade and investment would leave behind a longer trail of corporate defaults than we have witnessed thus far. This in turn would eventually leave a mark on the health of the banking system, albeit with a lag, despite some deft tweaking of the NPA norms.

As they say, it is only when the tide turns that you know who was swimming naked. Bernie Madoff and Ramalinga Raju are unlikely to be the only ones found doing this. The increased uncertainty prior to the parliamentary elections looming large, an impending earnings collapse and the impact of pursuing unsustainable business models even among several large businesses do not afford much scope for the market to recover strongly any time soon.

The Democracy Tax is Rising

2009-01-06T00:48:00.000-08:00
By M H Ahssan

Indian politics is becoming ever more labyrinthine

To get the measure of India’s political class, picture this. On July 21st Manmohan Singh convened an historic gathering at the Sansad Bhavan, India’s rotund parliament building. The government had been abandoned by its Communist allies, putting Mr Singh’s great achievement, a civil nuclear co-operation deal with America, in jeopardy. The government had been reduced to a minority. If it folded, the deal would die with it, so Mr Singh asked parliament for its support.

Over two days a few brave politicians debated the nuclear deal. The rest of the house jabbered and yowled, in many tongues, for the television cameras. A convicted murderer stretched out on a backbench; he and four other jailbird members (all pro-government) had been freed for the vote. Shortly before it took place, three members of the main opposition Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) produced bricks of rupee notes: part of a bribe, they said, given by government supporters for their votes. By hook or by crook the government won, by 275 votes to 256.

In a coup-ridden region, Indians are justifiably proud of their democracy. It has been interrupted only once: in 1975, by Indira Gandhi’s 21-month state of emergency. At their next opportunity India’s voters threw out Mrs Gandhi and her Congress party, for the first time in its history. Thereby they issued a message about the importance of timely elections that India’s leaders have never forgotten—and if they did forget, India’s Election Commission would issue a reminder. It is strong and independent: it can—and does—remove any official it suspects of undue bias. This ensures that, every five years, over a period of a few weeks, India holds a reasonably orderly and fair election. Its 29 states do the same, according to their own electoral calendars. For a vast and somewhat unruly nation, where the state is often partial and corrupt, these are tremendous accomplishments.

If only the election commissioners could decide which Indians are fit for election. The country’s politicians are mostly an unsavoury lot. Of the 522 members of India’s current parliament, 120 are facing criminal charges; around 40 of these are accused of serious crimes, including murder and rape. Most Indian politicians are presumed to be corrupt, which is less surprising. In India’s poor and fractious society patronage politics is inevitable. But Indian politics has got much muckier in recent years because of two factors: the rise of regional and caste-based parties, nakedly dedicated to delivering patronage; and the mutinous coalitions this has led to.

In 2004, after eight years in the wilderness, Congress returned to power after winning 145 seats in parliament. The BJP, which had run a fairly competent coalition government under Atal Bihari Vajpayee, won 138. To form a government—for which 272 seats are required—Congress put together the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) with 12 other parties. Ruling in this arrangement would have been hard enough, but the UPA was still short of a majority. So Congress recruited “outside ” support from another five parties, the most important of which was a coalition of Communist parties, the “Left Front”.

Suspended animation
This absurdly complicated and unrepresentative government has turned out to be more enduring than many expected. For Congress’s leaders, indeed, its survival is a formidable achievement: the party had never managed a coalition before. With competent managers in the main economic ministries, the government can also take some credit for India’s strong economic performance. But it has failed to pass almost any of the reforms India will need to keep up that performance. The Communists were the most obvious blockage; they opposed every liberal proposal on principle. But more broadly, like India’s vast bureaucracy, the government has expended far too much energy merely to sustain itself.

The nuclear deal epitomised its weakness. As a bilateral agreement, signed by Mr Singh and President George Bush in 2005, it did not need parliamentary approval. But because of opposition from the Communists the government was unable to seek the necessary approvals for the deal from the International Atomic Energy Agency and the Nuclear Suppliers’ Group, a club of 45 nations. All last year this stand-off dominated the government’s business. The deal was said to be off, then on, then off again. Pranab Mukherjee, a senior Congress leader who is close to the Communists, mediated between them and Mrs Gandhi. This left regrettably little time for his other job, as India’s foreign minister.

In September 2007 Congress’s regional partners urged Mrs Gandhi to forget the nuclear pact rather than risk an early election. She agreed. The deal was resurrected in June only after Mr Singh allegedly threatened to quit. The Communists walked out. But the government survived by recruiting a new ally, the low-caste Samajwadi Party (SP) from Uttar Pradesh.

The hope had been that the government, relieved of its Communist allies, might push through a few financial-sector reforms. In the event, reduced to a minority, now squabbling with the SP and with an election season coming, it has felt too weak even to try.

This is troubling. It indicates the risks India’s governments will increasingly have to take to get support for any bold policy. Reaching a consensus is becoming impossible, so fragmented is the polity. In the 2004 election Congress and the BJP mustered only 283 seats between them, a record low and only 11 more than is needed for a majority. Both parties saw their share of the vote decline. Congress’s shrank more, to 26.7%, almost a record low. Yet it increased its share of seats, partly because the BJP’s vote was spoiled by smaller parties. Congress nonetheless got the opportunity to form a government, for a reason beyond either party’s control: the BJP’s allies fared unexpectedly badly.

All that can confidently be said about India’s next government is that it will be a coalition, probably led by Congress or the BJP. If neither party can make the necessary alliances to get a majority, there is a slim third possibility: a government led by a regional, caste-based or conceivably even Communist party, with “outside” support from one of the two national parties. Such an arrangement could make the current government look positively united and progressive.

Elections this month in three important northern states, and six states in all, should offer clues as to which scenario is the most likely. As this special report went to press, results were pending from Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, which are all currently held by the BJP. A sweep for either of India’s main parties would be a big boost, though not conclusive, as the BJP found in 2004. It called that general election six months early, on the back of poll victories in those same northern states, and lost. Results are also due from elections being held this month in Delhi, which Congress has ruled for a decade; in Mizoram, a small north-eastern state; and in troubled Jammu and Kashmir.

The general election will be an important test of Congress’s ability to reverse its long decline. Since 2004 it has scored some modest hits. Besides survival, its government has a number of lavish welfare schemes to boast about, including a programme of public works that it claims will provide work for 30m households this year. But the recent turn of events in India, including last month’s terrorist attack in Mumbai, will make such things hard to boast of. And because Congress’s state-level machinery is weak, it is not good at advertising even these small successes.

This reflects the party’s highly centralised leadership structure, based on the cult of the Gandhi family of which Sonia is the current representative. The Italian-born widow of Rajiv Gandhi, a fourth-generation leader of Congress and of India who was murdered in 1991, Sonia was persuaded to take over the party in 1998. She, like this government, has done a bit better than expected. But even if Mrs Gandhi was better than she is, she could not restore Congress to anything like its former power.

The Gandhi factor
For almost four decades it ruled India by relying on three main groups for support: Muslims, high-caste Hindus and Hindu dalits (formerly “untouchables”). The fragmentation of Indian politics is partly a consequence of these groups turning to other parties. Congress’s performance in general elections does not fully reflect this: it actually does better at the centre than in the states, where patronage politics is more intense. That may be because of a residual fondness for the Gandhi family. But it will not restore the party’s lost base.

Congress knows this. But having no strong ideology to unite its squabbling factions, the party’s leaders remain forlornly faithful to the Gandhi dynasty. This was painfully obvious last year when the party charged Mrs Gandhi’s 38-year-old son and heir apparent, Rahul, with restoring the party’s fortunes in UP, India’s biggest state. It is the ancestral seat of the Gandhis and also the birthplace of India’s most powerful low-caste parties. Under Mr Gandhi’s well-meaning but unimpressive leadership, Congress got 22 out 402 seat in UP. A party for dalits, the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), won a big majority.

In difficult times it would be reasonable to suppose that Congress is in for a hiding in the coming election. Even in good times Indian voters tend to be disappointed with their governments. Indeed, that was another reason why the BJP lost in 2004. The terrorist attacks in Mumbai should also improve the chances of the security-obsessed BJP. But it is not clear to what extent the Hindu nationalists can capitalise on this.

During the 1990s the BJP built a base of perhaps 15% of Indian voters—typically high-caste and from the north—who liked its Hindu-chauvinist creed, known as Hindutva, or “Hinduness”. In power, from 1998 to 2004, the party tried to expand its base into a broad temple of right-of-centre nationalists. To avoid offending its allies, many of whom had Muslim followings, it also placed less stress on Hindutva. But after its 2004 defeat the party fell to feuding. Its modernisers were demoralised. Its Hinduist ideologues, a more powerful group, attributed the election defeat to insufficient Hindutva. In 2005 they forced the party’s prime ministerial candidate, L.K. Advani, to resign as its leader.

The BJP’s fortunes have since improved. In the past two years the party or its allies have won six out of 11 state polls. Congress has won in only three minor states. A victory for the BJP in May in Karnataka—its first in a southern state—was especially impressive. Mr Advani, an octogenarian bruiser, has also been reinstated as the party’s prime ministerial candidate and unofficial leader. He has restored some of the BJP’s old sense of purpose.

But this momentum may not take it very far. Badly as it did in 2004, the BJP performed well in a few populous northern states, including the three currently awaiting election results. If it loses ground there, as the anti-incumbency tick suggests it might, it is not obvious where it can make it up. In the past, when times were hard, the BJP responded by lambasting Muslims. But to do that, even after the outrage in Mumbai, would be a mistake—not least because the BJP urgently needs to recruit new allies.

A BJP-led government would offer India a better prospect of reform than the current arrangement, but possibly not much better. Compared with Mr Vajpayee’s government, the BJP would probably be a smaller component of the coalition. And Mr Advani is not the deft coalition manager that Mr Vajpayee was. Whether Congress could make a better fist of bringing change, given another chance, would depend first on whether it was again shackled by the Communists.

Mayawati thinks bigOf the other possible coalition leaders, one, the BSP, which is led by an autocratic former primary-school teacher called Mayawati, has captured India’s imagination. The dalit party’s victory in UP was a stunning achievement. Until then, caste-based parties had struggled to attract much support from outside their narrow base. The BSP succeeded, through skilful negotiations, by recruiting leaders of other castes, including brahmins. Thus it aped Congress’s own historic strategy. If Mayawati can replicate this success in the general election, she could play a big part in deciding the composition of the government. UP alone commands 80 seats in parliament. And Mayawati is trying hard to increase her reach outside the state: in February she drew 80,000 people to a rally in Delhi. She has declared her ambition to be India’s first dalit prime minister.

That would be truly inspirational for members of a still downtrodden group. But it might be disastrous for India. Mayawati has a reputation for egomania and gross corruption (though this has never been stood up in court). Newspaper reports, working from her tax return, have estimated her personal income at $12m, twice the figure for her party. Her support for an unsuccessful scheme to append a shopping mall to the Taj Mahal, which is in UP, does not speak well of her judgment. India’s democracy tax, like Mayawati’s income tax, is rising. But so, at least to some extent, is its ability to pay.

An Elephant, Not a Tiger

2009-01-06T00:41:00.000-08:00
For all its chaos, bureaucracy and occasional violence, India has had a remarkably successful past few years. M H AHSSAN asks how it will cope with an economic downturn

Eary April, India’s coalition government will face the judgment of 700m voters. Being mostly poor, they will not be happy. Recent months, moreover, have brought particular hardships: high inflation, a patchy monsoon, a slowing economy and vanishing jobs. In a worrying time, the terrorist attacks in Mumbai on November 26th-29th came as a particularly harsh blow. They gave the world images of India that jarred with the shining message of its recent progress. For three days India’s most cosmopolitan city and aspirant international financial centre echoed with gunfire. Amid the slaughter wrought by just ten well-organised assassins many individual Indians acted heroically. Yet the institutional response, as so often, was poor. Properly trained troops took over nine hours to arrive at the scene. Most of the 170-plus victims died during that time.

The Congress party, which leads India’s ruling coalition and runs Maharashtra, the state of which Mumbai is the capital, is likely to suffer for this. To make amends, Congress sacked the interior minister, and Maharashtra’s chief minister. The government, led by Manmohan Singh (pictured above), has also raised a cry—though not, thankfully, its fists—against Pakistan, whence the terrorists probably came.

Yet for most poor Indians terrorism remains a small part of their troubles. To deal with those, Sonia Gandhi, Congress’s leader, will reissue a lot of unkept promises when the election campaign begins: to bring everyone electricity, piped water, schools and jobs. She will say little about what this government has actually done: there hasn’t been much.

At the same time Mrs Gandhi and her prime minister, Mr Singh, have presided over the biggest investment-led boom in India’s history. In the past five years the economy has grown at an average annual rate of 8.8% (see chart 1). Services, which contribute more than half of GDP, have grown fastest, above all India’s computer-services companies. Infosys, TCS and Wipro are now world-famous names. But Indian manufacturing has also done well. Its impressive run culminated in January with the launch by Tata Motors of an ultra-cheap family car, the Nano.

India is now facing harder times. Its stockmarket has been sliding all year. As global credit has dried up, even Tata Motors, one of India’s best companies, has been struggling to lay its hand on capital. India’s economy is slowing rapidly and confidence is fragile. Previously soaring foreign investment in the country is expected to dip. Nobody yet knows how serious the slowdown will be, but in theory a recession in the rich world should hurt India less than other emerging markets: exports amount to only about 22% of India’s GDP, against 37% of China’s.

Diplomatically, India has also started to matter more. The US-India nuclear co-operation agreement, which was approved by America’s Congress in October, was the clearest sign of this: to let India in from the nuclear cold, the developed world has made an exception to the counter-proliferation regime. Mr Singh can take much credit for this. A courteous and scholarly former finance minister who launched reforms in 1991 that unshackled India’s mixed economy, he has been an effective envoy for India.

At home, often stymied by his coalition’s leftist allies, he has done much less well. But, among his few successes, he can claim that India, the world’s fourth-biggest emitter of greenhouse gases, has started to get serious about climate change. It refuses to consider cutting its carbon emissions, arguing that they are still very low per Indian. But guided by Mr Singh, India’s bureaucracy has at least accepted that, being hot, poor and agrarian, India will be badly hit by climate change.

That makes India’s main priority, reducing poverty through rapid economic growth, even more urgent. According to the World Bank, in 2005 some 456m Indians, or 42% of the population, lived below the poverty line. In 1981, by the same measure, the numbers were 420m and 60% respectively. The government’s own estimates are lower. But everyone agrees that poverty in India is falling much too slowly.

Pick another wretched statistic: there are plenty of them. India has 60m chronically malnourished children, 40% of the world’s total. In 2006 some 2.1m children died in India, more than five times the number in China.

To make a serious dent in poverty, India needs to keep up economic growth of around 8% a year. In the medium term that should not be too difficult. More impressive even than the success of India’s best companies is the zest for business shown by millions of Indians in dusty bazaars and slum-shack factories. They are truly entrepreneurs. It is no coincidence, as is often noted, that Indians have prospered everywhere outside India.

But India’s task remains daunting. Some 65% of Indians live on agriculture, which accounts for less than 18% of GDP. Shifting them to more productive livelihoods—and so reducing poverty—would be hard even if the number of people of working age was not growing so fast. Roughly 14m Indians are now being added to the labour market each year, and that number is rising. Half of India’s people are under 25 and 40% under 18 (see chart 2). They cannot all work for Infosys. Indeed, because of India’s historic underinvestment in education, many are not obviously skilled at anything. By one estimate, which may be optimistic, only 20% of job-seekers have had any sort of vocational training. If India cannot find employment for this lot, poverty will not be reduced and India may face serious instability.

Its democracy will be no defence. India is already worryingly violent. A Maoist insurgency in eastern India, which Mr Singh has called “the greatest internal security challenge we have ever faced”, is an obvious ill omen. Where it is spreading, in poor, agrarian and broken places, the “invisible threads” that bind India, in the phrase of Nehru, its first prime minister, are almost non-existent.

In recent years India has been creating more jobs than the gloomier scenarios suggested. Between 2000 and 2005 its rate of employment growth doubled, to 2.6% a year. But that is still insufficient, and there are also fears about the quality of jobs being created. To escape throttling labour laws, Indian entrepreneurs tend to keep their operations small: 87% of manufacturing jobs are with companies that employ fewer than ten people. These tend to be both less productive than jobs in bigger companies and less protected by the law.

If India is to sustain a growth rate of 8% or higher, as it aims to do, it will need to manage four potential constraints. The most pressing, its rotten infrastructure and the dreadful quality of its education, are, alas, not new. But the government’s response has long been inadequate, and with India’s burst of high growth these two problems have become more urgent than ever. India’s current rulers, the mahouts to an elephantine state, seem at least to understand this. But their efforts to end these troubles remain unconvincing. India’s other big constraints, its cumbersome labour and land laws, should be easier to fix. But there is depressingly little sign that this will happen soon.

India is getting stronger, but its problems are also growing. In the end, the pattern of its progress suggests, it will succeed. But it may be a long and painful grind.

What's General About a General Election?

2009-01-06T00:17:00.000-08:00
By M H Ahssan

There is nothing general about a general election. It is the sum of a set of particular elections in separate but contiguous and occasionally overlapping geographical and demographic spaces.

The Indian electorate lives in concentric circles. The federal state is one definition of such a circle, but not a comprehensive one. Identities can overlap into national space, as well as shrink into regions within a state. The case of Jharkhand yesterday and Telangana today might be obvious, but even newly-formed Chhattisgarh, which offers only 11 MPs to Parliament, has voters with different priorities, as we witnessed in the recent Assembly elections. Raipur, the old haunt of veteran V.C. Shukla, went largely to the party he has rejoined, Congress. But the tribals of Bastar gave the decisive tilt to the final tally, putting the BJP way ahead with an enthusiastic endorsement of the Salwa Judum programme, in which the state Government armed tribals against Naxalites.

This was greeted with palpable despair by urban liberals. But if they want to add to their despair they should note an almost imperceptible reversal of voter-preferences. Till the leadership of Rajiv Gandhi the Congress vote was secure among tribals, Dalits and the poor; the middle classes and the rich would abandon the Congress when they wanted to. After fifteen years of Narasimha Rao, Dr Manmohan Singh and Mrs Sonia Gandhi, the BJP has made serious inroads into the affections of the underprivileged in central India. This is a serious pointer to the growing perception that the Congress has become the party of the rich.

I can think of only two elections which were fought on a single issue: the one in 1977, after the Emergency; and the one in 1984, after Mrs Indira Gandhi’s assassination. Generally, there are a handful of concerns that determine the voter’s decision. But there is always a primary issue, and many secondary ones. Every one of the recent Assembly elections, from Delhi to Mizoram, was a referendum on the Chief Minister rather on the party of the CM. Mrs Sheila Dikshit won re-election in Delhi, not the Congress. The BJP was ahead of the Congress, but Mrs Dikshit was far, far ahead of the man who sought to replace her, Vijay Malhotra.

The Indian voter is more mature than the Indian politician. He was not distracted by emotion, even one as powerful as terrorism inspired by forces hostile to India. He concentrated on what mattered most in an Assembly election, good governance, and he knew that this is provided by an individual, a leader. Equally, the leader is responsible for mismanagement and corruption, where that prevails. He placed terrorism also within the matrix of good governance, for it is the duty of the state to provide security to the citizen. But his judgment was remarkably honest. He would not blame Mrs Dikshit for the collapse of authority in Mumbai. Those who failed in Mumbai, whether at the state or Central level, will be held culpable when their time comes.

Narendra Modi made an interesting point when campaigning for tougher anti-terrorism laws. He told Gujaratis during last year’s Assembly elections that he could assure them a better life, but what was the point of the assurance if they were left with no life to enjoy? He could make this an effective claim only because he had delivered on development. In Delhi, Mrs Dikhshit had the record, and the attacks on her looked like gamesmanship because they were not backed by either a fresh face or fresh ideas. Everywhere, people are tired of politics at the expense of development. And they do not care if development comes wrapped in a tricolour or saffron. The voter is now colour-neutral.

Of course victory and defeat in a state do impact the fortunes of a party. And so the advantage in the next general elections will lie with whichever coalition offers the better collection of Chief Ministers. Or, to put it in another way, which team has fewer disasters in its ranks. The Congress is in serious trouble in the two large states where it is in power. It has been forced to replace its Chief Minister in Maharashtra; unwisely, it shifted merely from a callous face to a lacklustre one. In Andhra, the extraordinary rise of Chiranjeevi is a warning to both the Congress and the Telugu Desam. He is soaking up the gap between anger and what might be called lukewarmth. Its principal ally, the DMK, has become synonymous with corruption, hobbling in the process Prime Minister Singh, who has tolerated putrid partners in order to remain in office. The Congress should feel happier about its prospects in Punjab, to tick off one of its potential assets in the general election balance sheet. A political party might be a broad church, an alliance a broader faith, but every church needs a pastor.

The team must be led by someone who can display authority, and a programme that encompasses a nationwide horizon. Manmohan Singh and L.K. Advani will be their respective team-leaders, of course; but the Third Front will be hampered if it cannot offer a candidate for Prime Minister.

The Delhi result might just be the best thing to happen to the BJP. If it had won, its leaders might have forgotten precisely why they were re-elected in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. Media’s fixation on its urban base can be mesmerising, driving out facts from analysis. The BJP presumably has realised that the voter will not pick up anything thrown in its way. Both the slogan and the leader have to be credible. All politicians are prone to get stuck in the treacle of smugness at the first hint of success. The split decision should have sobered all parties. There was a welcome sobriety in the commentary from spokesmen of both the Congress and the BJP following the results. It should have also reaffirmed to both parties that the general election is going to be won by whichever has the better allies. Neither is strong enough to march too far ahead of its partners. This will also have an ameliorating effect on the formation of the next Government in Delhi.

December 2008 was a wake-up call. This should ensure that all political parties go into the general election with their eyes open, and common sense intact.

To be in play, NDA must deliver over 220 seats

2009-01-06T00:14:00.001-08:00
By M J Akbar

There is only one relevant question in an election year: Who will win? The pundits have begun to get themselves into the usual tangle, most of the tangle created by the spin of bias. The right thing to do would be to admit that no one really knows, but that would reduce a column to just one sentence. Since pundits get their money from columns rather than sentences, this is an inadequate solution to their dilemma.

If they must stretch their wisdom to a thousand words, may I offer a suggestion? They are making a mistake by looking at the big boys. The general election of 2009 might well be a game whose result is determined by the small boys.

Allies, rather than principals, could be the key to the formation of the next coalition in Delhi. It will also depend on how many seats the Third Front gets, and on which side its partners fall if they have to choose between the UPA and the NDA.

The three major allies of the Congress are Mr Lalu Prasad Yadav in Bihar, Mr M Karunanidhi in Tamil Nadu and Mr Sharad Pawar in Maharashtra. There is bad news for the Congress in all three States. The Chennai street is buzzing with talk about a triumphant return for Ms Jayalalithaa. Between the pain of family feuds and the disgust of unprecedented corruption, the DMK seems to have lost it. It is often forgotten that the DMK has been in power in Delhi for two terms, first as an NDA partner and then in the UPA. That is a lot of temptation for DMK Ministers in Delhi to handle, and they handled it by succumbing totally. They may have begun life from the usual humble origins, and they could be out of office soon, but trust me, they will never be poor again — for many generations.

In Maharashtra the Congress is facing a double-whammy. There is a dip in both voter-support as well as in the cadre. The voters have shifted to the Opposition after two nearly-full terms of a best-forgotten Chief Minister, who has had, uniquely, to be dropped twice. A good section of the Congress cadre has moved to Mr Sharad Pawar, who has been building his party as a regional force for the State, on the lines of Telugu Desam and DMK/AIADMK. He has nominated an heir, his daughter, and the next general election may see her shift into the Lok Sabha from the Rajya Sabha. His best legacy is not a victory in 2009, but a strong party structure that can survive the ephemeral phases of democracy. Mr Pawar is sharp enough to see the future clearly. For 2009 is a transition, not a horizon.

The UPA bastion in the east is crumbling. Mr Nitish Kumar, with the simple offer of good governance, has made substantial inroads into Lalu territory. Muslims are moving towards him in substantial numbers, and Mr Lalu Prasad Yadav’s traditional vote-bank rhetoric about the BJP will not stop the drift, since the voter has made good governance his pre-eminent priority. The Congress has the difficult task of not only preventing erosion in its own numbers, but also compensating for the losses that will be suffered by its allies.

Since 1991, allies have gained far more from alliances with the Congress than the other way around. Mr Lalu Prasad Yadav has boxed the Congress into just four seats out of 40 in Bihar. When a party does not contest seats, it withers at the roots, which is what has happened to the Congress. Mr Mulayam Singh Yadav will not concede more than 15 seats out of 80 in Uttar Pradesh; Ms Mamata Banerjee will keep the Congress down to 10 out of 42 in West Bengal. The Congress will gain in States like Kerala and Punjab, and could improve its numbers slightly in Rajasthan, but that will not easily offset losses in big States like Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu.

One assumes that the Congress believes it can use the BJP bogey to bring in the Left and Third Front parties into its coalition after the results. This will not be easy. The Left believes it has been betrayed, and abused, by Mr Manmohan Singh, inside and outside Parliament, over the strategic alliance with the United States. It is not likely to hand over leadership of any alliance it supports to the Congress. The Congress might offer to prop up a minority Government from outside, but other parties will recall what happened to Mr IK Gujral and Mr HD Deve Gowda. They might prefer stability to a temporary triumph.

The balance will, in any case, swing towards the alliance with the larger numbers. To be in play, the BJP-led NDA must deliver over 220 seats. Will that happen?

Why don’t we let the electorate tell us in April and May? The pundit pontificates. The citizen votes.

Before we bury another year (this one with great glee) it is only appropriate to write an epitaph for 2008.

A word coined by the growing tribe of wordsmiths, and an e-mail doing the rounds (both gleaned from the special Christmas issue of the Spectator) seem to be the perfect epitaph for the dreadful year just behind us. The word is quite a good one, not the least because it resembles an expletive: “Funt”, meaning “financially untouchable”. But the e-mail is more fun:

Socialism: You have two cows. State nationalises one and gives it to your neighbour.

Communism: State takes both and gives you some milk.

Fascism: State takes both and sells you some milk.

Capitalism: You sell one of your cows and buy a bull; herd multiplies, economy grows. Sell them, and retire on income.

Lehman Brothers Capitalism: You have two cows. You sell three of them to your publicly listed company, using letters of credit opened by your brother-in-law at Bear Stearns, execute a debt/equity swap with an associated general offer so that you get all four cows back, with tax exemption for five. The milk rights of six cows are transferred via an intermediary to a Cayman Island company secretly owned by the majority shareholder who sells the rights of all seven cows to your listed company. The annual report says the company owns eight cows, with an option for one more. You sell one cow to buy the President of the United States, leaving you with nine cows. No balance sheet provided with the Press release. The public then buys your bull.

Mega Alliance Against Ruling congress in AP

2009-01-05T23:39:00.000-08:00
By Swati Reddy

In a bonhomie not displayed to the public since they parted ways in 2000, TDP president N Chandrababu Naidu and TRS chief K Chandrasekhar Rao on Monday more than indicated that they, along with the two Left parties, will fight the 2009 elections as alliance partners.

The stated reason for their meeting on Monday was to submit a memorandum to President Pratibha Patil against corruption in the state and other issues. But the fact that KCR drove down to Naidu's residence to ride together, and Naidu dropping by at the TRS chief's residence to have tea and meet up with Mrs Chandrasekhar Rao, seem to convey to the media that the alliance between them is more or less in their bag.

“A joint announcement would be made during the auspicious Uttarayana period after Sankranti,” a beaming KCR told the media at his residence on Monday night. Confirming that TRS has joined the TDP-Left alliance was the presence of CPM state secretary B V Raghavulu and CPI state secretary K Narayana with Naidu and KCR throughout the evening.

Addressing the media, both Naidu and KCR said their coming together was a positive development and would go a long way in defeating the Congress in the state.

KCR said TRS would work with TDP and the Left to expose the Congress government’s misdeeds in the state.

Calling it a "positive development," Naidu said this is the beginning for a political battle." When asked about the CPM's opposition to Telangana, KCR said its general secretary Prakash Karat had told him in New Delhi recently that they would review their stand on separate state soon.

Replying to volley of questions, Raghavulu said “the four parties will launch a fight till the Congress is thrown out of power.” Narayana said the dinner meeting sends a clear indication of the unfolding political scenario in the state. The joint war against the government had begun by submission of a joint memorandum to the President on corruption and demolition of houses in Bheemraobada ousting poor people to construct a party office.

Minority netas worried about Muslims’ future in Telangana

2009-01-05T21:54:00.000-08:00
By M H Ahssan

Muslim politicians and organisations have emerged as the latest opponents of Telangana cause. Just when it appeared that the road to the creation of the new state had become smoother in the wake of the TDP’s somersault on the issue, the stand taken by Muslim politicians of various hues has complicated matters.

With the buzz about the formation of the new state of Telangana after bifurcating Andhra Pradesh getting louder, a contingent of Muslim leaders of the Congress from Andhra left for the Capital on Wednesday morning to apprise the party leadership about their reservations on the issue.

Citing the recent communal flare-up at Vatoli in Adilabad district, which claimed the lives of six members of a Muslim family, as proof that interests of minorities would not be served well in the proposed state, they have mounted pressure on the Congress brass to come out against bifurcation of the state.

Earlier, the Majlis-Ittehadul Muslimeen (MIM), which wields enormous clout among Muslims in and around Hyderabad, had gone public with its opposition to the plans on the creation of the new state.

The Congress leaders were spurred into action following reports that the central leadership, which had been pushed on the back-foot on the Telangana proposal after the TDP’s about-turn on the issue, was toying with the idea of giving its green signal to the plan. Chief Minister Y S Rajasekhara Reddy, who had all along opposed the move but appeared to be nursing second thoughts after TDP’s U-turn, had reportedly been summoned twice to the Capital by the party brass for talks on the subject.

Andhra Pradesh goes to polls towards the middle of next year, and the Rajasekhara Reddy government is confronted with a severe anti-incumbency
disadvantage. In his discussions with Congress president Sonia Gandhi here on Monday, Mr Reddy is said to have argued that an assembly resolution agreeing to the proposal for creation of Telangana would go a long way in neutralising this anti-incumbency.

With the TDP’s change of heart, the Congress has now come under tremendous pressure to give up its resistance to the move. With Mr Chandrababu Naidu opening channels of communication with Mr K Chandrasekhara Rao’s TRS for an electoral tie-up in the Telangana region, the ruling party’s prospects have become shaky.

State Muslim leaders feel that by agreeing to the creation of the new state of Telangana, the Congress would be playing into the hands of the BJP, which had been pushing the case vigorously.

MIM chief Asaduddin Owaisi, speaking to newspersons earlier this month, had come out openly against the proposal. ``It is not that we are opposed to Telangana per se. If a new state is formed, the tally of seats of our party in elections will go up. But we have to first ensure the safety and welfare of Muslims and other things such as the future of Urdu language. Whether these will be safe in Telangana is the issue,’’ he had argued.

The stand taken by the Muslim leadership has put the Congress brass in a quandary. It risks alienating the community if it goes ahead with the proposal. On the other hand, it faces the prospect of ceding ground to its political opponents, at least in the Telangana region, if it vetoes the move.

Accouintability in Indian Politics

2009-01-05T21:53:00.000-08:00
By M H Ahssan

In every democracy including Indian, to bring in accountability in governance the Constitution stands supreme. Question is what happens in a democracy where the elected representative of the people start giving short shift to the constitution itself, as is currently happening in India?

Indian Constitution lays down that before any policy is formulated, all matters of state having long term implications on the well being of the country and its people, will be discussed in both houses of Parliament threadbare. Today the stage has come when these houses of Parliament are being used more as a venue for sloganeering and rabble rousing by both the Treasury benches and the opposition then for any meaningful discussion. The recent comments by no les a person than the Speaker of Parliament Mr. Somnath Chatterjee that the worthy members of Parliament should burn the rule book outside the Parliament if they can not follow the decorum of the house or the other one that these members take the working of the Parliament as a joke, should be an eye opener to all.

The proceeding of the house gets stalled with the drop of a hat. All of course at the cost of tax payer’s money. Things have reached such a nadir that discussions even when they do take place are mostly pedestrian in nature with the worthy members hardly having burnt any midnight oil in preparing for the issues involved. Very recently some distinguished members of Parliament were caught in a sting operation taking money for asking questions in the house.

At the time of Indian Independence, while giving final touches to the Constitution, our founding fathers did not put down any thing in writing against politicians with criminal background coming to power because it was beyond the realm of imagination in those days of clean politics that any criminal will be given ticket by any party. Within 60 years of Independence in India, things have come to such a pass that in the current Parliament, every fifth MP out of a total of approximately 550 MPs, have a criminal background. Our Constitutional makers did not also lay down any educational qualification yardstick for these worthies because it was assumed that parliament itself will frame necessary rules for them, a thing which has not happened till date.
Not only MPs, there are number of tainted ministers also in the current Cabinet of the Prime Minister against whom formal charge sheets have been framed by courts of law. Basic tenets of leadership demand that to be an effective leader and a public figure a person must set his own personal examples. What examples these tainted leaders are setting are anybody’s guess. However it does not auger well for the future of the nation.

It is also revealing that maximum number of these tainted politician’s hail from the two most populous and educationally as also economically the most backward states of India, UP and Bihar. These two states alone contribute 145 MPs to Indian Parliament. The biggest paradox is that these very states are best endowed in the country in terms of irrigation capable land, water and raw materials. What they lack are education and industry the two basic elements on which a successful democracy functions and what they suffer is bad governance.

Out side the Parliament also the current lot of Indian Politicians have not earned many laurels for themselves. Hundreds of corers of tax payer’s money is spent in bringing these netas to power by means of elections in each state. Once the elections are over, then instead of the majority single party or a coalition quickly forming the Government for the good of the people, every possible trick in the trade is used by the party, which has lost at the hustings to stall the Government formation. Cases in point are the pangs of government formation the states of Goa,Jharkhand, Bihar in the past and Karnataka in the recent past had to suffer.

Witch hunting and lack of continuation of the previous Government policies even if they were good by the next Government is a comparatively new phenomenon which has now emerged. Opposition for opposing sake, even if the issue opposed is good for the country, is another tragic development which is making mockery of our current state of democracy. Case in point is Indo-US Nuclear Deal.
On their own, Indian politicians will not like to bring about any change in this murky scenario. Unfortunately for them, the fast spread of Information technology, TV and mobile phone culture in India and the rise of the youth power with about 74 percent literacy which will be voting in full strength in elections due next year, the current Indian polity has become politically very savvy. They are fast realizing that if they want their leaders to deliver they will have to elect capable people and make them accountable. The thrust on cast and religion is giving way to better jobs, better living conditions, better education, better health care and corruption free governance. Electronic and print media also is doing a yeo man service in exposing the corrupt.

Maybe the political parties in India will now give it a cool thought and set their houses in order before it is too late. If things do not improve and feel good effect does not reach the common man it will not take long for things to slide into state of anarchy leading to insurgency. People are getting impatient and they will not wait till the cows come home for their lot to improve. The example is the current breakdown of law and order in North Eastern states and the Naxalite movement gaining ground in the country. The time is running out.

Both houses of Parliament must also function with optimum efficiency.The pay and perks of these politicians should not be fixed by they themselves. A separate autonomous body must be created for the same. Similarly those members of parliament and state assemblies who willfully stall the proceedings of the house must be imposed upon monitory fines. Why should public play for their misdemeanor. In today’s world of Information Technology and globalistion of economy, not only the country but the whole world is watching them. Independence of India had been won too dearly to be sacrificed at the alter of political expediency. Politicians must become more accountable and deliver to people who elected them, instead of making politics a money making industry.

Terror, Economy Brew will Flavour Election

2009-01-04T23:30:00.000-08:00
By M H Ahssan

The year ahead promises to be an eventful one, no less so due to the criss-crossing of different cross currents in public life. How the issue is defined at the level of the meta polity will have much to do with the eventual outcome.

It is tempting, all too tempting in an age of regionalised political trends and forces, to dismiss the very idea that there is anything like a nationwide issue. It is all too natural that there are plural patterns in a continental style polity like India’s.

This is no new pattern at work. The south stood by Indira Gandhi in 1977 even as her party was wiped out in the north. In 1984, Rajiv did not dent Andhra Pradesh even as he took most of the rest of India. In successive polls, West Bengal has stood by its ruling Left Front even as one regional party or the other has taken the lead in Tamil Nadu.

Even more recently, whole regions and states have diverged and widely so. Karnataka voted overwhelmingly for the BJP in the last general elections while neighbouring Kerala went with the Left. Yet, there are larger patterns in the trend. In 2004, the vote was for change. It was for a change of regime in New Delhi just as clearly as the previous verdict was one for Vajpayee having a full term at the top.

Over the last decade, the two largest parties have learnt the hard way that they have to tie together a host of smaller forces into alliances. In return for a lion’s share of seats in a state, the latter accede to share power at the Centre but without bidding for the top jobs.

But to hold these together requires a bigger idea, a vision statement. This gives an alliance a sense of purpose, a feeling that it is marching to the beat of the same drum. Like armies massing for battle, parties group together in battle array to reach out to the voters’ minds.

Nothing moves them like a unity of purpose for power. But they do need something more than that to justify why they are out there in the field. This is why what issue comes to the fore matters. At the time of writing, it is difficult to see a slogan or a catch phrase that can capture the popular mood. In 1980, it was simply ‘a government that works’. In 1971 it was the all time hit, ‘Garibi Hatao’ or ‘Banish Poverty’.

But these were cases where one party reaped the gains of a rich electoral harvest. What when there is no one clear challenger or winner? This was very much the scene in 1996 when Narasimha Rao’s Congress lost but there was no clear winner. The BJP was the single-largest force but with too few friends. No Third Force existed before the verdict, but one rapidly assumed shape after the results. It held together into the next elections and fell only due to Congress withdrawing support.

Security
Security will remain an abiding concern as the Guwahati bomb blasts, the tenth in less than a year in Assam alone, showed, and on this count, foreign and domestic politics are closely intertwined. Politics will continue to revolve around the fortunes of parties in the elections, and with the next general elections a few weeks away, the pace will soon quicken.

Whether terror will be the end-all issue is doubtful. It has indeed been the central concern as in 1984 at the national level and in key state polls. It carried J. Jayalalithaa to power in Chennai in 1991 after Rajiv’s shocking assassination. But these killings of stalwart national leaders were exceptional.

Terrorist attacks have been so commonplace in the last few years that the issue is one of widespread concern, not just in Mumbai but in a host of urban centres from Guwahati to Delhi, Jaipur to Bengaluru. But who is to define the issue in such a way that one party seems to stand apart from all the others? The years in power weigh heavy on the Bharatiya Janata Party. Having negotiated with the Hizb- ul- Mujahideen in Srinagar and traded prisoners for hostages in Kandahar, it is not so easy to accuse others of being soft. And now that a tough anti- terror law has been put on the statute book, it will be difficult to campaign for such a law.

Jobs
The Congress’s ability to portray itself as tough as door nails is never to be ruled out. Many tend to forget that a Preventive Detention Act was first enacted under Jawaharlal Nehru after a nascent India fought off rebellion by Communist guerrillas in Telengana as well as strident attack for the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh.

But short of a major breakthrough via diplomacy on the Pakistan front or a fever pitch of war on election eve, it is not likely this card will work wonders for the Congress. Nor can the party given its present course easily play on polarisation the way it did with such deadly effect in the Eighties.

There is another more prosaic cause why terror may not be the number one issue. It is the economy that will take pride of place, rousing anxieties and raising fears to a new level.

Today, more than even 2004, India’s economy is tied to that of the wider world. With 24 per cent of the gross domestic product accounted for by exports, the slowdown will have longrange consequences, especially in towns whose economies are attuned to the global market.

Workers who have lost their jobs are headed home from Surat to Saurashtra or from Tiruppur into rural Tamil Nadu. Textiles are in trouble as are automobiles and, more seriously, heavy and light commercial vehicles.

Once before when the economy contracted by 5 per cent in 1979- 80, voters punished the Janata Party and Congress stayed impregnable for a decade.

There is no such contraction now, only a slackening of the pace. But these figures mean little to those who have lost out. Beyond those directly tied to exports, there are those whose jobs or production processes depend indirectly on them.

Verdict
India will still be less adversely hit than China but in a multi- party polity there are more avenues for ventilation of grievances. None is as potent as the ballot box.

Here, the turbulence comes to the surface, making each head uneasy that wears the crown. In a democracy there is no royal coronet, only a crown of thorns.

It is therefore more and not less likely that 2009 will see a vote for change. Can a ruling party capture and express this yearning for change.

It can but only if it offers hopes of a shift to a better, more secure future.

But it is that much more difficult when the audience is anxiety- ridden about its own livelihood.

This will explain why the Centre is moving so fast on one stimulus package after the other. These may be intended to give the economy fresh wind but they are as much to breathe life into the frame of the ruling coalition.

Nothing less than its fate is at stake.

EC clause on symbol sets hurdle for Prajarajyam

2009-01-04T22:34:00.000-08:00
By Sarathi Verma

Without Common Electoral Symbol, Future PRP Legislators Will Not Be Covered By Anti-Defection Law

Before the elections for Assembly and Lok Sabha seats, Chiranjeevi’s Prajarajyam has to fight another battle and this fight would be as important for the party as the electoral battle. The superstar is now desparately seeking to convince the Election Commission to grant a separate election symbol for his party. Reason: the apprehension that if a party symbol is not allotted to Prajarajyam, then all its successful candidates will technically be independents. The implication is that the anti-defection law may not apply to them. Thus in the post electoral scenario, when horse trading ensues, other parties can poach on Chiranjeevi’s men, very easily.

The apprehension has arisen because many analysts have predicted that there will be a three-way fight this time leading possibly to a hung assembly. The largest single party or any other party that fancies itself to be in a position to form the government might seek to split other parties. “And if the MLAs are not elected on a common election symbol or a symbol that is not allotted in the name of a party, there would a dispute about whether the anti-defection law would apply,” an analyst said. The same argument would apply to MPs also — this time the fight for Delhi durbar would be close, leading to switching of some smaller parties and MPs.

Chiranjeevi, accompanied by former law minister P Shivshanker, met with the members of the Election Commission in Delhi last week representing strongly their case for a symbol for Prajarajyam. But the rules of the Election Commission are quite clear on this — only parties with a past record of contesting elections and getting a minimum percentage of votes are allotted a symbol. For first time parties, the norm is to choose from the list of free symbols that the Election Commission has. So all candidates of the party choose a common free symbol like a lock, a bow and arrow or a lion or whatever. Problems arise when in some constituencies some independent candidate opts for that particular free symbol that the new party opts for.

Usually the Election Commission gives preference to a new party, unrecognised though it may be. “The fact that a party has been registered by the Election Commission does not by itself entitle it to a party symbol,” an analyst pointed out.

Among other grounds Prajarajyam is pressing its case on the argument that the Telengana Rashtra Samiti (TRS) was able to successfully get an exemption and manage a party symbol right from the first election that it fought for the assembly. But that was following a legal battle where the TRS was able to convince the courts that it had earlier fought panchayat elections and this was proof that it was not fighting an electoral battle for the first time. Though the panchayat elections are not conducted by the Election Commission, the latter had no choice but to grant a symbol after the court ruling.

But in Prajarajyam’s case, the battle for a symbol is a difficult one because the party has not contested even panchayat or municipal elections before, unless the party presents its arguments based on the recent ZPTC polls.

Hyderabad Urdu daily editor eyes LS seat

2008-12-29T21:44:00.000-08:00
By Subia Khan

Noted social activist and editor of Urdu daily Siasat Zahed Ali Khan has decided to fight for the Hyderabad Lok Sabha seat as an independent candidate in the upcoming general elections.

“There is need to change the politics of the Old City which has been in the stranglehold of the Majlis (Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen). I had this feeling that I should challenge the leadership of Majlis for keeping the people and their surroundings utterly backward. I did this through my newspaper. The public response to my writings was overwhelming. Now the public wants me to fight Parliament elections. I have accepted the persuasion of my conscience and answering the call of the people,’’ he told TOI.

The Hyderabad Lok Sabha constituency is being represented by MIM—first by late Sultan Salahuddin Owaisi and since 2004 by his eldest son Asaduddin Owaisi for the last quarter century.

Though the reports of Khan entering the electoral battle had been there in the air for few months he decided to express his intentions at a public meeting on Sunday night at Yakutpura.

Khan said that he would be supported by Telugu Desam, CPI, CPM and TRS. “Though there has been no formal talk with the Congress on my election plans, there are a number of Congress members who have offered to support me,’’ he said.

Asaduddin Owaisi who was groomed by his father for long years to take over the reigns of MIM, won the 2004 election by defeating his nearest rival G Subhashas Chanderji of BJP by more than one lakh votes.

With the delimitation of the Assembly and Parliament constituencies, the concentration of Muslim voters has increased in Hyderabad.

Sources at MIM dismissed Khan as a political novice and said that the party would be too happy to show him his place in electoral battle. Owaisi was not available for comments.

India’s General Elections 2009 : The Run-Up

2008-12-29T02:38:00.000-08:00
By M H Ahssan

General Elections earlier than the scheduled timing of the first half of 2009 has been an active talking point in India’s political circles for nearly a year. This speculation was fuelled by the stream of ultimatums emanating from the ruling Congress Party coalition partners threatening to withdraw support on every conceivable issue and bring about the fall of the Congress-led Government. Leading the pack more actively has been the Leftists combine led by the CPI(M).

Despite the brouhaha that they create on this count neither the Leftists combine nor the coalition partners of the Congress like the RJD, DMK etc have the political courage to exit power. The Congress itself is unsure of whether it can return to power. The Leftists are smug in exercising political control over the Government without accountability having a plausible exit strategy that they are not part of the Government. They too are uncertain along with the other coalition parties of the Congress that they can retain even the present number of seats that they hold in Parliament. All in all the Congress Government and its coalition parties would like to ride out their full tenure in power.

Unless some unforeseen dramatic political development takes place the next General Election in India seems set to take place in 2009 only. But then even if the General Elections take place in 2009 only, the fact is that it is just about a year left in the run-up to them and it really is not that much time left. It therefore becomes appropriate to survey India’s political scene as it presents itself today.

The first to get off the block in terms of gearing itself for the forthcoming General Elections has been the major Opposition Party, the BJP. Having resolved their inner-party leadership issue they have named Shri L K Advani as their Prime Ministerial candidate and to fight the Elections under his leadership. The BJP could have also named their “Shadow Cabinet” as was recommended in an earlier Column of mine. There is a whole line-up of competent and tried BJP leaders who should be projected for all the important ministerial portfolios as part of their “Shadow Government”. This would give the BJP a big political edge over the Congress Party and add to its image of having both talent and political competence within its ranks.

The BJP however, has not fully got into a pro-active election-mode. With just about a year left in the run-up, the BJP as the main Opposition Party should have been a bee-hive of political activity especially in the States which it intends to re-capture from the Congress and whose loss in the last Elections led to its exit from power.

The Congress is a party dominated by a single political dynasty and does not have many politically talented people in its ranks. Once again the Congress Party the way it is structured would have to depend on the Gandhi dynasty duo of Mrs. Sonia Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi to garner votes. They have not and further shy away from naming any Prime Ministerial candidate like the BJP. The strategy seems to be following a dual-track approach with the Congress leaders clamoring that Rahul Gandhi should be the next Prime Minister and the dynasty denying any such ambitions. In terms of feverish political preparations Rahul Gandhi seems to be concentrating heavily on the under-developed regions of Uttar Pradesh like Bundelkhand and tribal areas of Orissa and Central India.

There seems to be an underlying strategy in this pattern which seems to rest on a number of political considerations. Firstly it is easier to draw attention to the neglect of these areas by non-Congress Governments ruling in such States forgetting that Congress too is responsible for the neglected state. Secondly, it is easier to draw large crowds in such poor areas for Congress political meetings. Thirdly, the calculation seems to be that in such areas the iconic appeal of the dynasty may be much larger.

But there is a negative deduction that emerges here and that is that the Gandhi dynasty may have lost its political iconic appeal in urban and developed areas of India and therefore are politically concentrating on such backward areas.

The Congress seems to be taking very seriously the political threat that Shri Advani poses by the BJP naming him the Prime Ministerial candidate. The Congress Party seems to be in an overdrive to single out Shri Advani as the main target of their political attacks in the run-up to the Elections in a bid to erode his political credibility.

The Leftists despite their hold on West Bengal and Kerala do not seem to be destined to even retain the sixty odd seats that they occupy in Parliament presently. In an India which is economically resurgent today and where affluence is becoming a way of life, the Communists are not likely to offer much political appeal.

The regional parties like the RJD and the DMK who because of the coalition arithmetic received disproportionate political importance from the Congress do not seem to be returning back with the same clout.

India’s political scene however is pervaded heavily by the uncertain political tilt of Ms Mayawati who swept into political power in Uttar Pradesh on the strength of a new political formula of adding economically weaker upper castes to her Dalit captive vote banks. This was covered in an earlier Column on her success.
Her party the BSP with its new political formula could double the number of seats that she holds in Parliament and this could be at the cost of both the Congress and the BJP. She could become a vital “swing factor” for both the Congress and the BJP in case of a hung Parliament.

Ultimately, one needs to remember that the Congress and the BJP are the two major political parties of India and the results of the 2009 General Elections would revolve around their respective overall showings and the yearning of the Indian people for a strong leadership capable of leading a growingly nationalistic resurgent India without the delusional mindsets of non-alignment and minority vote-banks appeasement.

Only Votes can Clean Politics of Criminals

2008-12-29T01:39:00.000-08:00
By Joginder Singh

An executive engineer of the Uttar Pradesh Public Works Department (PWD) was beaten to death in Auraiya, Uttar Pradesh, on December 25, allegedly by a history-sheeter MLA of the Bahujan Samaj Party, his supporters, and allegedly, two PWD engineers. The engineer was reportedly killed because he refused to cough up Rs 50 lakhs for the birthday celebrations of chief minister Mayawati on January 15, 2009. The state government and Ms Mayawati have denied this allegation.

The accused Shekhar Tiwari, since arrested, has several cases pending against him. In 2001, he was also booked under the Gangster Act and remained behind bars for several months. In June 2008, two state ministers, one from Uttar Pradesh and the other from Assam, were removed from their offices and arrested. The Uttar Pradesh fisheries minister Jamuna Nishad was arrested for allegedly killing a police constable while leading a mob protesting police protection for an accused in the rape of a girl belonging the Nishad community. The education minister of Assam, Ripun Bora, was arrested and later sacked for trying to bribe CBI officials with Rs 10 lakhs so that they would go soft on him in the murder investigation against him.

According to the Election Commission, Uttar Pradesh and Bihar account for at least 40 MPs and 700 MLAs who have faced criminal charges that include murder, dacoity, rape, theft and extortion. Some leading lights include Pappu Yadav (convicted of murdering a Left party legislator) and Syed Shahabuddin. Both are in jail. Union law minister told the Rajya Sabha the in 2008 that there were over 1,300 cases pending against sitting MPs and MLAs in various courts. The CBI was investigating 65 of these. There is a regional concentration in terms of criminal cases. Bihar, UP, Jharkhand and Madhya Pradesh comprise 28 per cent of all MPs but account for over 50 per cent of MPs with high-penalty criminal cases. The party-wise position of MPs is that the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) leads in the proportion of criminal cases (43.5 per cent).

In respect of criminal cases with severe penalties (five or more years’ imprisonment), RJD tops the list with 34.8 per cent of MPs, BSP with 27.8 per cent and the Samajwadi Party with 19.4 per cent. Congress MPs in this category account for 7.6 per cent of their total number in Parliament. For BJP it is 10.9 per cent.

A former chief minister, when asked about the 22 ministers in his Cabinet with criminal antecedents, said, “I don’t bother about the ministers’ past. After joining the government they are not indulging in crimes and want to help suppress criminal activities. Ask the people why they have elected them”.

On July 9, 1993 the Government of India constituted a committee, under the chairmanship of home secretary, with secretary, Raw, Director, Intelligence Bureau, Director, CBI, Special Secretary (Home) as members, to take stock of all available information about the activities of criminal syndicates and mafia organisations which had developed links with and were being protected by government functionaries and political personalities.

Director CBI told the committee that all over India crime syndicates have become a law unto themselves. In smaller towns and rural areas, musclemen have become the order of the day and hired assassins are a part of these organisations. The nexus between criminal gangs, police, bureaucracy and politicians has come out clearly in various parts of the country.

The existing criminal justice system, essentially designed to deal with individual offences/crimes, is unable to deal with the activities of the mafia. The provisions of law with regard to economic offences are weak and there are insurmountable legal difficulties in attaching or confiscating property acquired through mafia activities.

When pressed further to know what action had been taken to end criminalisation, the then Union home minister S.B. Chavan had said that he had forwarded the committee’s reports to the state governments for necessary action. That was the end of efforts to prevent criminalisation of politics and society.

Political power has flowed from the barrel of the gun in states where in criminals have adorned elective offices of not one but all political parties.

No politician or a political party is in the business of politics for dharma-karam and politicians are quick to seize all opportunities for electoral gains. The caste card is unabashedly played to drum up support. Whenever a question is put about how they intend to eliminate criminalisation of politics, the standard response is that political parties must arrive at a consensus. Politicians will have consensus only when it suits their interests and it will never suit them to have a person with a clean record whose electoral victory might be doubtful.

After all what matters in politics are numbers, whether they are procured by hook or crook, temptations of pelf or power. Middle class people talk about criminalisation and they are the ones who do not go out to cast their votes on the ground that either it is too cold or too hot or they have another engagement or they do not want to stand in a queue. As countrymen we get a chance once in five years to elect our rulers. Instead of lamenting about the sorry state of affairs, why don’t we go out and discharge our duties as citizens and elect the best possible candidate? This is the only way to end criminalisation in politics. Especially since our governments aren’t just unable to end criminalisation, they are simply unwilling to do so.

It is worthwhile to quote what former US President Ronald Reagan said: “Politicians may think prostitution is a grim, degrading life. But prostitutes think the same of politics. Getting a lecture on morality from a politician is like getting a lecture on chastity from a whore”.

BJP Finalises Names for 12 Lok Sabha Seats

2008-12-28T21:36:00.000-08:00
By Swati Reddy

The Bharatiya Janata Party on Sunday finalised its first list of candidates for 12 Lok Sabha seats in the ensuing general elections even as the party’s national spokesman Prakash Javdekar denied approaching any party or vice-versa regarding electoral alliances.

The list includes Ch Vidyasagar Rao (Karimnagar), N Indrasena Reddy (Malkajgiri), Badaru Dattatreya (Secunderabad), Baddam Bal Reddy (Chevella), Jhansi Rani (Mahbubnagar), K Sarvarayudu (Rajahmundry), D V Subba Rao (Visakhapatnam), U V Krishnam Raju (Narsapur), K Shanta Reddy (Rajampeta), Naresh (Hindupur), Y Raghunath Babu (Guntur) and D Ravindra Babu(Srikakulam).

Senior leaders Prakash Javdekar, M Venkaiah Naidu, Bangaru Laxman, V Rama Rao, B Dattatreya and others finalised the first list and the electoral strategy to be adopted in the state for the next general elections. It is learnt that the national leaders who attended the three-hour state election committee meeting took a considerate view of the state leaders’ submission that BJP’s chances in 110 Assembly constituencies were very strong.

Meanwhile, sources said BJP national leaders were having elaborate discussions with the new political parties (read as Prajarajyam and Nava Telangana Party) on the likely alliance to be adopted in the Assembly and Parliamentary elections.

State party president B Dattatreya however refused to confirm the news saying all announcements regarding elections and announcement of candidates would be made by the BJP parliamentary board.

Earlier, Prakash Javdekar told media that party’s state office-bearers meeting and election committee meeting had extensive discussions on the prevailing political scenario in the state. He said the party would soon announce a detailed schedule for a string of programmes to be taken up over the next 50 days to reach out to the people.

The BJP spokesperson said the issue of statehood to Telangana would be top on the party’s agenda, apart from issues of price rise, terrorism and corruption. As part of the programme, L K Advani would address a meeting each in Karimnagar, Guntur and Madanapalle before electioneering.

Taking a dig at the Congress rule in the state, he said chief minister Y S Rajasekhara Reddy had broken all records regarding corruption and very soon he would find a place in the Guinness Book of World Records and enumerate himself as the ‘master of corruption’. “No chief minister in the country since Independence has had such a dubious distinction regarding unabashed corruption,” he alleged. The BJP spokesperson demanded a special CAG inspection of all the irrigation projects and public works taken up in the state after Y S Rajasekhara Reddy became the chief minister.

CPI Gunning for Vijayawada LS Seat

2008-12-25T21:59:00.000-08:00
By M H Ahssan

In a move that could surprise even its main rival Congress, the CPI is reportedly lobbying for the Vijayawada Lok Sabha seat with its new ally Telugu Desam Party (TDP).

The CPI, which has a strong base in the city, is not willing to leave the opportunity this time round as a win in the heart of the Coastal Andhra region would help the party restore past glory, aver sources. Sources said the CPI’s move is likely to relieve many of the TDP leaders in the constituency as none of them is ready to contest the LS elections due to infighting within the party. “The TDP would be more than happy to allocate the Vijayawada LS seat if the CPI is really serious about it,” confirmed a senior TDP leader. TDP’s candidate in the last elections, film producer C Aswani Dutt, who was never seen in the constituency after his defeat in the 2004 elections, is unlikely to return, a source said.

Political observers said the CPI’s confidence stems from the fact that it had held the city mayoral post thrice in the past. Also, the party has been coming up trumps in the Vijayawada (West) Assembly segment. “It is but natural that the CPI would like to have its own candidate from the key seat in the 2009 elections,” an observer said.

Curiously, TDP urban unit convenor Gadde Rammohan, who was once considered as giant killer after defeating the ex-Congress’ stalwart P Upendra, had openly expressed his unwillingness to contest the LS election. “The urban
unit is no one’s child as the leaders are engaged in quarrelling among themselves. Party chief Chandrababu Naidu’s repeated warnings have failed to put the house in order,” admitted a senior leader.

Even before the trouble between party’s west incharge Budha Venkanna and another leader Katragadda Babu subsided, the SC leaders have revolted against the urban party leadership demanding a sizeable share in the tickets. When two groups in Gannavaram started warring with each other, Rammohan left it to the high command to solve the issue.

The party has also failed to stop the only minority leader Jaleel Khan, who has a sizeable following in the district, when he left the party to join the Congress.